Afghanistan: The calm before the storm

(Baonghean.vn) - By not attacking during the opium harvest, Kabul missed an important opportunity to strike a blow against the Taliban.

Afghan army soldiers on duty during an operation to destroy poppy fields in Khogyani district, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan, May 9, 2013. Photo: Wikimedia commons.

The Afghan government's stance on direct peace talks with the Taliban through a four-party coordination council comprising senior officials from Afghanistan, Pakistan, the United States and China has changed after the group carried out a suicide bombing on April 19 that killed 64 people and wounded 347 in Kabul.

A week after the attack, President Ashraf Ghani in a speech to parliament announced a new security policy with a firm stance against Pakistan, the Haqqani network, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and the Taliban.

“We do not expect Pakistan to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. What we want is for Pakistan to keep its promises and launch military operations against the insurgents,” he said.

When NATO military operations ended in December 2014, the Afghan National Security Forces began taking responsibility for security across the country.

Since taking office, Mr. Ghani has vowed in parliament to use all resources to end violence through peaceful means,” but like his predecessors, he has failed to make any breakthroughs.

In fact, last year was the deadliest in Afghanistan's history, with 11,000 civilian deaths.

The Taliban have essentially taken control of Kunduz and have gained ground in other provinces, especially in southern, northeastern and western Afghanistan.

Ghani's April speech marked the first time the Afghan government had publicly taken a tough stance against opposition forces that are unwilling to end the bloodshed through peaceful means and continue to oppose the Afghan government.

But since Mr Ghani addressed parliament, the ANSF has not carried out operations against insurgents, particularly in Helmand, Kunduz and Badakhshan.

Over the past five months, districts in northern Helmand have fallen to the Taliban, starting with Musa Quala and Nawzad in February, followed by large parts of Sangin and Grashk and Marijah, and now most of northern Khanashin.

A local man tends a field of poppies. Photo: Getty.

Although the ANSF has regained control of the Khanashin area, it is struggling to liberate the provincial capital, Lashkergah. The Taliban now control more parts of Helmand than the Afghan government.

Despite the Taliban launching what they call a spring offensive, the security situation in Helmand has remained stable over the past two months. There have been no major attacks and no new areas have fallen into Taliban hands. The secret behind the lull is that the Taliban are busy harvesting opium while (unlike previous years) the government’s opium eradication campaign has yet to begin.

The Taliban's largest source of revenue is the opium harvest. The Taliban collects ushr (harvest tax) from farmers; they also collect taxes for growing opium and protecting opium cultivation from government eradication campaigns, not to mention taxes on transportation, smuggling routes, etc.

This year’s opium crop is “better” than last year, but the government has not yet “taken action” to deal with it. Due to the large profits from opium production, the Taliban has also been careful not to provoke the government by limiting attacks on government forces, allowing its fighters to focus on harvesting, collecting taxes, and preparing for the summer offensive.

According to locals, nearly 98% of Taliban fighters are involved in the production of opium tablets and cakes. This is a skilled and skilled job, but seasonal workers also come from all over.

According to Haji Toor Jan, a farmer in Nawzad: “Some Taliban groups not only have income from protection money but also earn a large amount of money through the income of gunmen involved in opium production in the past year.”

With the Taliban busy harvesting opium, the ANSF would have had the opportunity to launch a campaign to retake the northern Helmand territories, targeting not only the insurgents but also their vital source of funding. However, the ANSF has been on the defensive.

Taliban gunmen. Photo: Sputnik.

The Afghan government has received military support not only from its strategic allies the US and NATO, but also from Russia and India. However, the ANSF has not launched an attack on the Taliban in Helmand and other provinces at the most crucial time, creating ideal conditions for the Taliban insurgents to obtain the necessary funds to buy weapons and ammunition, preparing for another bloody year in Afghanistan.

The Afghan government has lost its best chance to attack the enemy, although the ANSF claims that it is prepared for both offense and defense. Given the large amount of opium money and the number of new Taliban fighters, the next few months are likely to see a new offensive campaign by the Taliban into government-controlled territory. Therefore, to minimize the damage from the upcoming Taliban attacks, the Afghan government needs to change its way of thinking and start a new offensive in its “backyard” while the Taliban is busy planning their battle.

This may be the right time for the Afghan government to consider initiating night raids targeting Taliban leaders and their sources of finance. The ANSF needs to take decisive action to weaken the Taliban’s financial capabilities. If the ANSF continues to wait for Taliban attacks, rather than taking the initiative, the Kunduz scenario could repeat itself in Helmand, but with more deadly and severe consequences.

Thao Linh

(According to Diplomat)