The 'unknown factor' that determines the US presidential election

Florida - 29 electoral votes

Recent polls show that Mr. Trump andMr. BidenThe battleground of Florida, a “big prize” with 29 electoral votes, is particularly important to Mr Trump because no Republican candidate has won the presidency without Florida since 1924.

Trump won Florida by just 1.2 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. In 2020, he is doing well among Hispanic voters while Biden is leading, even outperforming Clinton among seniors and white voters.

Additionally, when it comes to presidential elections, Florida is considered an important "swing state" that has played a decisive role in deciding the winner since 2000.

Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes

Pennsylvania has gone from a Republican-leaning state in the 20th century to a swing state in recent years. From 1992 to 2012, the state supported the Democratic candidate in six consecutive elections. However, Republican Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016.

Mr. Trump won this Rust Belt state by just 45,000 votes in 2016 on a promise to bring jobs back to working people. The president still does well on the economy, but he still trails Mr. Biden in Pennsylvania polls.

Ohio - 18 electoral votes

Ohio has been a swing state between Democrats and Republicans for decades. Mr Trump won the state in 2016 by 8 points over Hillary Clinton, while Democrat Barack Obama won the battleground state in 2008 and 2012.

This year, Mr. Trump has a small lead in Ohio in most polls, but Democrats hope they can win the state as suburban voters, college graduates and women become increasingly dissatisfied with Mr. Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Along with Michigan and Wisconsin, high African-American voter turnout in cities like Dayton, which have been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, could be key to Mr. Biden’s victory in Ohio.

Michigan - 18 electoral votes

Four years after becoming one of the Midwestern battleground states that helped Mr. Trump win in 2016, Michigan, with its 16 electoral votes, is leaning toward Mr. Biden in most polls this year.

Analysts believe that if Mr. Biden can mobilize support from African-American voters in the state’s largest city, Detroit, he can overcome the 11,000-vote margin that Mr. Trump won there in 2016. Both candidates are trying to convince voters that they are the best person to restore the economy in this state, which was once proud of its manufacturing industries but is now affected by the trend of outsourcing.

In the last five presidential elections, Michigan voted for the Democratic candidate until Mr. Trump won in 2016.

North Carolina - 15 electoral votes

Mr Trump won North Carolina, a state with 15 electoral votes, by 3.6 points over Hillary Clinton four years ago. The state has been Republican since 1980, except for Mr Obama's victory there in 2008.

Biden has a small lead in recent polls, and the former vice president is seen to be gaining support in increasingly Democratic urban cores while eroding support for Trump in the suburbs due to his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes

Latino voters are crucial in Arizona, where Mr Trump won 11 electoral votes by nearly four points in 2016. The state is considered a conservative stronghold and has voted Republican in the last five elections.

Latino voters have grown over the past two decades, from a quarter of the state’s population to a third. Biden’s support among them has been declining as Republicans have focused heavily on the state.

Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes

President Trump was the first Republican to win the state since 1984. Biden’s campaign is betting on Democratic-leaning African-American voters to overcome Trump’s less than 1-point lead over Hillary Clinton four years ago. Most polls in Wisconsin show Biden still holding a slight advantage over Trump.

During the 2016 presidential election, a little-known county in northeastern Pennsylvania became a national symbol of Donald Trump's surprise victory.

“Why Donald Trump Won? Visit Luzerne County, Pennsylvania,” read the headline in a 2016 Newsweek editorial. The Wall Street Journal also reported that “a decline in manufacturing, a decline in population, a loss of social cohesion and a rise in immigration” had created a reality that “perfectly fits” Trump’s message.

Four years later, in 2020, President Trump is trailing in his re-election campaign, and his ability to replicate or enhance his performance in Luzerne County is crucial to his bid to win the key battleground state of Pennsylvania.

"Luzerne County voters are the definition of the forgotten man. No one in Washington is standing up for them. They've lost hope. I don't think the president has lost any support here compared to 2016. In fact, he's gained more support," said former Republican congressman Lou Berletta, a Trump ally in Pennsylvania.

Mr. Trump won Luzerne County by 26,000 votes in 2016. As part of his strategy to continue to win Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump’s campaign is betting on voters in small towns and rural areas in the Northeast.

Luzerne County has long been a Democratic stronghold. Its residents are predominantly white and most do not have college degrees. The county twice supported President Barack Obama but has shifted strongly to the Republican Party in recent years. Republican leaders say Democrats are “dreaming” if they think Luzerne County will make a difference this year.

Mr Trump is trailing by 7 points in Pennsylvania in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. His allies in the state say the president needs to win in northeastern Pennsylvania to close the significant lead Mr Biden has in the suburbs around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

"It seems like Trump's support is growing in northeastern Pennsylvania. Even in Joe Biden's hometown of Lackawanna-Scranton, Trump's support is growing," said John Yudichak, a senator from Luzerne County. "Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap in Luzerne County and across the state. I think a large majority of voters here think that Democrats are out of step with working-class voters."

Joe Walsh, a former Trump supporter, said that Trump has built a core group of loyal voters who support his "Make America Great Again" policy and are ready to support him no matter what happens.

"Personally, I think President Trump will lose by a wide margin. But I think his base is going down with him. They're sticking with him."

Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis has forced him to suspend his campaign rallies. The impact of the spread of Covid-19 in the White House is also reflected in polls: Biden’s lead over Trump has widened, both nationally and in swing states. A majority of Americans say the president is not taking precautions to protect himself.

But to Trump’s base, all of this speaks to his best qualities: a fearless fighter, a tactical negotiator and a strong constitution. Voter Lee Stranahan believes that as long as Trump meets the basic requirements — criticizing the media, the Democratic Party and the progressives — everything can be forgiven, whether the stock market is down or the White House becomes a hotbed of Covid-19. Democratic candidate Joe Biden gave a speech on October 10 (US time) at a stop in Erie, Pennsylvania — a key swing state that helped Trump win in 2016. Source: Reuters

Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is trying to attract the support of disloyal Republicans and independents in the final weeks of the election. The former US Vice President asserted that he will be a President who works hard not only for those who support him but also for those who do not.

Speaking at an event on the evening of October 10 in Erie County, Pennsylvania, where Mr. Trump narrowly won in 2016, Mr. Biden affirmed: "I am running as a proud Democrat, but I will lead this country as President of the United States [...] We do not agree on everything, but we all agree on this: This is a moment when we put country over party."

Erie is just one of a series of places the former vice president has visited on the campaign trail in recent weeks, aiming to shift support for Trump and win back places that President Obama won before they flipped in 2016.

Back to Luzerne County, despite recent Republican wins, there are a few reasons to think Joe Biden is a real contender. According to Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, who represents parts of the county, Biden still has a chance to win this crucial district.

The reason he gave was that Mr. Biden is a promising candidate who can bring a new direction at this time.

"What do President Obama and President Trump have in common? It's not a long list. They're both change candidates. And the key here is: When things aren't going well in life, we always vote for change."

Overall, this year’s US presidential election is an event with unpredictable results due to unprecedented developments. Experts say it is important to remember not to put too much hope in a single poll, but instead focus on the overall trends that the polling data shows. Although Mr. Biden is leading in the polls, Mr. Trump could still win the electoral college.

Professor David Redlawsk - Chairman of the Department of Political Science at the University of Delaware predicts that the uncertainty about the election results is 95%. "I think we are too obsessed with surveys while the voters are the ones who make the final decision"./.