The 'unknown factor' is decisive in the US presidential election.

Florida - 29 electoral votes

Recent polls show that Trump andMr. BidenThe battleground state of Florida, a "big prize" with 29 electoral votes, is fiercely contested. This state is particularly important to Trump because no Republican candidate has won the presidency without securing Florida since 1924.

Trump won Florida against Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a margin of just 1.2 points. In 2020, he is doing well among Hispanic voters while Biden is leading, even outperforming Hillary Clinton among older and white voters.

Furthermore, when it comes to presidential elections, Florida has been considered a crucial "leading state," playing a decisive role in determining the winner since 2000.

Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes

Pennsylvania, a state that leaned Republican in the 20th century, has become a swing state in recent years. From 1992 to 2012, the state supported Democratic candidates in six consecutive elections. However, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, won Pennsylvania in 2016.

Trump won this Industrial Belt state by a margin of just 45,000 votes in 2016 on a promise to bring jobs back to workers. The president has performed well in managing the economy, but overall, he still trails Biden in Pennsylvania polls.

Ohio - 18 electoral votes

Ohio has been a swing state between Democrats and Republicans for decades. Trump won the state in 2016 by an 8-point margin over Hillary Clinton, while in 2008 and 2012, Democratic candidate Barack Obama won this crucial swing state.

This year, Trump has a narrow lead in Ohio in most polls. However, Democrats hope they can win the state as suburban voters, college graduates, and female voters become increasingly dissatisfied with Trump's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Along with Michigan and Wisconsin, high voter turnout among African Americans in cities like Dayton, which have been heavily impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, could be key to Biden's victory in Ohio.

Michigan - 18 electoral votes

Four years after becoming one of the key battleground states in the Midwest that contributed to Trump's 2016 victory, Michigan, with 16 electoral votes, is leaning toward Biden in most polls this year.

Analysts believe that if Biden can rally support from African American voters in Detroit, the state's largest city, he could surpass the 11,000-vote lead Trump held there in 2016. Both candidates are currently trying to convince voters that they are the best fit to revive the state's economy, once a manufacturing powerhouse but now suffering from outsourcing.

In the last five presidential elections, Michigan voted for the Democratic candidate until Trump won in 2016.

North Carolina - 15 electoral votes

Trump won North Carolina, a state with 15 electoral votes, by a margin of 3.6 points over Hillary Clinton four years ago. The state has consistently supported the Republican Party since 1980, with the exception of Obama's victory there in 2008.

Biden is leading by a narrow margin in recent polls. The former Vice President is now believed to be gaining support in increasingly Democratic-leaning downtown areas, while eroding support for Trump in suburban areas due to his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes

Latino voters play a crucial role in Arizona, where Trump won 11 electoral votes by a margin of nearly 4 points in 2016. The state is considered a stronghold of conservative views and has voted Republican in the last five elections.

Latino voters have grown in number over the past two decades, from a quarter of the state's population to a third. Biden's support among this group is declining as the Republican Party focuses its campaign heavily in the state.

Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes

President Trump was the first Republican candidate to win this state since 1984. Biden's campaign is betting on the Democratic-leaning African American voter base to overcome Trump's less than one-point lead over Hillary Clinton four years ago. According to most polls in Wisconsin, Biden still holds a slight advantage over Trump.

In the 2016 presidential election, a little-known county in northeastern Pennsylvania became a national symbol of Donald Trump's unexpected victory.

"Why did Donald Trump win? Visit Luzerne County, Pennsylvania" was the headline of a 2016 Newsweek commentary. The Wall Street Journal also reported that "the decline in manufacturing, the decrease in population, the erosion of social cohesion, and the rise in immigration" created a reality that "perfectly aligned" with Trump's message.

Four years later, in 2020, President Trump was trailing his opponent in the re-election campaign, and his ability to replicate or enhance his performance in Luzerne County was crucial to his efforts to win the key battleground state of Pennsylvania.

"The voters of Luzerne County are the definition of the 'forgotten'. No one in Washington is standing up to fight for them. They've lost hope. I don't think the President has lost any support here compared to 2016. In fact, he's getting more support," said former Republican Congressman Lou Berletta, a Trump ally in Pennsylvania.

Trump won Luzerne County in 2016 by a margin of 26,000 votes. As part of a strategy to continue winning Pennsylvania, Trump's campaign is betting on voters in smaller cities and rural areas of the Northeast.

Luzerne County was a long-time Democratic stronghold. Its residents are predominantly white and many do not have college degrees. The county twice supported President Barack Obama but has shifted its support to the Republican Party in recent years. Republican leaders say Democrats are "dreaming" if they think Luzerne County will bring about change this year.

Trump is trailing by 7 points in Pennsylvania according to RealClearPolitics' average polls. His allies in the state say the president needs to score points in northeastern Pennsylvania to close the significant lead Biden may have in the suburbs around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Senator John Yudichak of Luzerne County stated: "It appears that support for Trump is increasing in Northeast Pennsylvania. Even in Lackawanna-Scranton County, Joe Biden's home county, Trump support is growing. The Republican Party has narrowed the gap in registered voters in Luzerne County and statewide. I think a large majority of voters here believe the Democrats don't share the same views as working-class voters."

Joe Walsh, a former supporter of President Trump, argues that Trump has built a core group of loyal voters who support his "Make America Great Again" policies and are willing to stand by him no matter what.

"Personally, I think President Trump will lose by a wide margin. But I think his loyal voter base will 'sink with him.' They're 'stuck' with him."

President Trump's COVID-19 infection prevented him from holding campaign rallies. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak within the White House is also reflected in polls: the gap between Biden and Trump is widening, both nationally and in swing states. A majority of Americans surveyed believe the President did not take precautions to protect himself.

However, given Trump's voter base, all of the above highlights his best qualities: fearlessness in battle, strategic negotiating skills, and robust health. Voter Lee Stranahan argues that as long as Trump fulfills the basic requirements – criticizing the media, the Democrats, and the progressives – everything is forgivable, whether the stock market crashes or the White House becomes a COVID-19 hotspot. Democratic candidate Joe Biden gave a speech on October 10 (US time) at a stop in Erie, Pennsylvania – a crucial swing state that helped Trump win in 2016. Source: Reuters

Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is working to win over disloyal Republican voters and independent voters in the final weeks of the election. The former US Vice President asserts that he will be a president who works hard not only for his supporters but also for those who do not support him.

Speaking at an event on the evening of October 10 in Erie County, Pennsylvania, where Trump narrowly won in 2016, Biden asserted: "I am running as a proud Democrat, but I will lead this country as President of the United States […] We don't agree on everything, but we all agree on this: This is the moment we put the nation above partisanship."

Erie is just one of a series of locations the former US Vice President has visited in recent weeks during his campaign to shift voter support toward Trump and regain areas where President Obama had won before those localities shifted their stance in 2016.

Returning to the story of Luzerne County, despite Republican victories in recent years, there are several reasons to believe that Joe Biden is indeed a serious contender. According to Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright, who represents several areas in the county, Biden still has a chance of winning in this crucial district.

The reason he gave was that Biden was a promising candidate who could offer a new direction at this time.

"What do President Obama and President Trump have in common? It's not a long list. They were both candidates who brought about change. And the key here is: When things aren't going well in life, we'll always vote for someone who brings about change."

Overall, this year's US presidential election is an unpredictable event due to unprecedented developments. Experts say it's important to remember not to place too much faith in a single poll, but instead to focus on the general trends shown by the polls. Although Biden is leading in the polls, Trump could still win the electoral college votes.

Professor David Redlawsk, chair of the Political Science Department at the University of Delaware, predicts a 95% uncertainty surrounding the election results. "I think we're too obsessed with polls when the voters are the ones who ultimately decide."