German newspaper: Ukraine missed the opportunity to become a NATO member
(Baonghean.vn) - The Berliner Zeitung (Germany) believes that ceding territory to Russia in exchange for NATO membership was a good option for Ukraine to end the conflict, but it seems to have been missed. Now, reaching such an agreement is much more difficult, when Russia has a big advantage.
According to RT on April 28, Berliner Zeitung newspaper said that Ukraine could become a NATO member if it agreed to cede territory to Russia. This was a proposal by Stian Jenssen, chief of staff of the NATO Secretary General in August 2023.
Professor Klaus Bachmann, an analyst at Berliner Zeitung, said that this was a "correct" proposal, because in world history there had been an agreement based on exchanging territory for security. A professor at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw said that those who do not believe in the effectiveness of this model should look at the experience of South Korea and North Korea, or the German Democratic Republic (East Germany) and the Federal Republic of Germany.
According to Professor Klaus Bachmann, in relation to Ukraine, this model means: Russia guarantees the security of the annexed territories, and their people, from Ukrainian attacks. At the same time, NATO guarantees the security of the remaining Ukrainian territories from Russian attacks. In Bachmann's view, there is no better deal for Kiev.
"The rejection of this 'lucrative' deal was due to the mistaken belief that Kiev could further improve its position in the negotiations," said Professor Klaus Bachmann.
The expert said that the German press is now reporting that these proposals have reappeared on the sidelines of the NATO summit, but under "much less favorable" circumstances than last summer.
According to Mr. Bachmann, under the new conditions, Ukraine has less chance of reaching a better agreement, because this has objective obstacles that both Moscow, NATO and Kiev itself need to overcome.
The least of the problems is Ukraine's reluctance to implement the agreement. "If the past few weeks have shown anything, it is that Ukraine is completely dependent on Western aid and weapons supplies. Without NATO supplies, the Ukrainian army can still retreat, but it cannot fight. Therefore, if NATO and Russia agree, the dispute over ownership of parts of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions is unlikely to affect the agreement," Bachmann analyzed.
A slightly bigger obstacle is Russia's successes on the front. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that negotiating just because Ukraine is running out of artillery shells "is pointless".
Adding to the hurdle, Moscow sees no benefit in negotiating with a Biden administration if he is replaced by Donald Trump in the upcoming election – who could make major concessions in the fall.
"At the moment, the Kremlin really has no reason to negotiate. Instead, it just needs to wait, until President Zelensky's army disintegrates, until Mr. Trump wins the US election, until there are enough pro-Russians involved in European politics" - Professor Klaus Bachmann commented.
The biggest obstacle, Bachmann says, is NATO, which has no clear policy toward Ukraine. The alliance would have to accept Ukraine as a member once it makes territorial concessions. But this would require the consent of all members. The process risks being a lengthy one, as Sweden has shown.
The final obstacle, Professor Bachmann points out, seems insurmountable – ensuring military parity between Ukraine and Russia. Unlike the situation on the Korean Peninsula, where each country has the US and China as superpowers behind it, Kiev needs security guarantees from Russia itself.
According to Bachmann, this could only be done through the deployment of Western troops, but "how can this be done?"./.
