Can oil embargo restrain North Korea?

(Baonghean.vn)- With North Korea conducting a test of what is believed to be a more advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), China is under greater pressure to impose stronger economic sanctions on Pyongyang, including cutting off oil supplies.

Following the latest United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea, China has pledged to limit its exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products to Pyongyang. However, on November 29, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said that in a phone call, President Donald Trump personally called on his Chinese counterpart to cut off oil supplies to North Korea.

Pyongyang is racing to perfect its reliable nuclear deterrent. Photo: AP

But cutting off oil supplies completely would be a drastic step. The international community has little time to deal with North Korea. But that is no reason to rush into measures without first assessing their potential impact.

The first issue to consider is the direct impact of this measure on North Korea’s nuclear and weapons programs. Some studies suggest that North Korea could essentially stop using oil for non-military purposes to ensure that its military purposes are not affected in the medium term.

Other studies have suggested that North Korea has acquired the technology to replace oil with other domestically produced hydrocarbons. Furthermore, given that the military likely possesses significant oil reserves, and that its missile and nuclear programs appear to be top priorities, it is unlikely that cutting off oil supplies would have any direct impact on these programs.

US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. Photo: Reuters

Moreover, oil supplies are not a significant deterrent to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. As Pyongyang races to develop a credible nuclear deterrent, it has already completed the stage that could be constrained by a fuel embargo. Therefore, cutting off oil supplies is likely to strengthen Pyongyang’s political resolve to acquire nuclear weapons rather than discourage it.

An oil embargo could weaken North Korea’s economic system, creating regime instability. But the impact would not be immediate. North Korea may choose to back down.

But it could also choose to act more provocatively and aggressively, taking its brinkmanship to the extreme. Given North Korea’s current political ideology, there is every reason to suspect that this outcome is the most likely. A more aggressive North Korean regime could then increasingly threaten South Korea, Japan, Guam, and even the continental United States.

It is also important to curb the war of words between the US and North Korea. Photo: Getty

At this point, the United States, China, and other countries in the region need to pursue two urgent goals. One is to force North Korea to stop improving its weapons capabilities.

Second, seriously pursue risk-reduction measures. Establishing a direct hotline between Washington and Pyongyang and exchanging high-level delegations, either publicly or secretly, are some useful measures that could be taken.

In addition, curbing the war of words between the US and North Korea is also important, on par with curbing Pyongyang's nuclear development./.

Lan Ha

(According to CNN)