The US strategy toward Syria: Letting go but not abandoning?

Efforts to reassure allies

To date, the US withdrawal from Syria, as announced by President Donald Trump, remains a dominant topic on Washington's agenda.

This decision was seen as "inspired" by the White House, as top Defense Department officials, from the Secretary to the Chief of Staff and several other generals, disagreed with the plan. They expressed their opposition to the President by submitting their resignations.

John Bolton warned the Syrian government not to interpret the US troop withdrawal as an "invitation" to use chemical weapons. (Photos: Getty, Politico)

The remaining officials are busy figuring out how to implement Trump's plan in the most reasonable way possible. However, at this point, the steps for the US withdrawal from Syria remain unclear.

According to a previous executive order, the withdrawal of 2,000 US troops from Syria was planned to be completed within 30 days. However, two days ago, a senior State Department official stated that "there is still no timetable for troop withdrawal."

While the US withdrawal from Syria remains uncertain, it's understandable that Washington's allies are feeling uneasy and confused. Israel is the country most concerned about the US plan.

Tel Aviv is concerned that its regional rival, Iran, will expand its presence in Syria after the US withdrawal, and that this will be accompanied by the possibility that President Bashar al-Assad – an ally of Tehran – will regain power throughout the country.

Therefore, during his visit to Israel, which began on January 4th, US National Security Advisor John Bolton wanted to hear Israel's opinions and concerns about US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw troops from Syria, as well as reaffirm the US policy that "ensuring Israel's security is a top priority."

A U.S. government official said Bolton would convey the message that the U.S. would strongly support Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.

Regarding Türkiye, President Tayip Erdogan had previously pledged to his American counterpart that he "would wipe out what remains of ISIS in Syria and Iraq." This commitment was supported by the US President.

However, what the US is most concerned about is the fate of the Kurds in Syria – a force that the US has long supported. That is part of the reason John Bolton chose Türkiye as his next stop after Israel.

The visit is seen as a last-ditch effort by the US to avert a massacre of Kurds by Ankara. Furthermore, the US President's desire for Turkey to take over the fight against ISIS in Syria and the region will also be a key item on the agenda that Bolton wants to discuss with Turkish authorities, before Ankara turns to Russia to form a new alliance there.

In general, Advisor John Bolton's mission this time is not only to reassure allies about President Donald Trump's recent decisions, but also to clarify the level of coordination with allies such as Turkey and Israel to ensure both US interests and the security of their partners in Syria.

Letting go but not giving up

It's safe to say that the US plan to withdraw troops from Syria continues to raise many questions. If this plan is implemented as initially announced by President Donald Trump, it could be a major turning point on the Syrian battlefield as well as in the US's grand strategy in the Middle East.

Therefore, whether Trump's statement was an "impulsive decision" or a calculated move remains a perplexing question for observers. However, it seems that following this unexpected announcement, US officials under Trump are trying to "interpret" to allies and the world that the US is "letting go but not abandoning Syria."

This was evident when, during his visit to Israel, US National Security Advisor John Bolton declared: "The United States has absolutely not changed its stance against the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons, and it has absolutely not changed its stance that any chemical weapons attack will be met with a heavy response, as the United States has done twice before."

This statement clearly confirms that whether or not the US withdraws its troops, it will still intervene in Syria when necessary. In other words, Washington's overall policy on Syria is unlikely to change.

US military forces in Syria. Photo: AFP

Other US government officials are also trying, in one way or another, to persuade President Donald Trump to change his decision. For example, Senator Lindsey Graham met with the President at the White House.

Following the meeting, Graham tweeted: “President Trump will ensure that troops will only withdraw from Syria when ISIS is completely defeated, when Iran can no longer replace the US in Syria, and when the Kurdish allied forces are protected.”

This means that the repatriation of American soldiers in Syria will not happen overnight. According to some experts, this plan could take several months, or even a year, but essentially, the US will not completely abandon its involvement in Syria, even in the post-ISIS era.

Looking ahead, both the Pentagon and the State Department will undoubtedly need to coordinate more closely with the White House on how to ensure a successful troop withdrawal without jeopardizing long-standing U.S. interests.

Therefore, following National Security Advisor John Bolton's trip to Israel and Türkiye, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also visited eight Middle Eastern countries in an effort to outline a clearer and more unified strategy for this crucial geopolitical region.