What to expect from the Syrian parliamentary elections?

(Baonghean) - On April 13, Syria held parliamentary elections according to the plan announced by President Bashar al-Assad at the beginning of the year. The election took place in areas controlled by the Syrian government army, with nearly 3,500 candidates running for 250 seats in the National Assembly. Although it was held on the same day that peace talks for Syria resumed in Geneva (Switzerland), analysts said that we should not expect too much from this election for the political process in Syria because it is likely that it will not receive widespread recognition from the international community.

Favorable context

This is the second time Syria has held parliamentary elections since the country fell into civil war. But compared to the previous election in 2012, this election is considered to have a much more favorable context when the ceasefire brokered by Russia and the US took effect from February 27.

Syrians at a polling station in Damascus. Photo: AP

Remember, during the May 2012 election, Syria was at the height of a civil war that had broken out more than a year earlier. Rebel forces backed by the West and Gulf states were winning, pushing forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Asad to retreat to the eastern and southern regions of the country.

After nearly 4 years, the context of the civil war in Syria has changed a lot. At the present stage, with the expansion of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization, with the obvious consequences caused by the Syrian civil war such as the migration crisis, terrorist attacks appearing with increasing frequency, the international community - including the forces behind the "proxy war" in Syria - has recognized the urgent need to find a political solution for this Middle Eastern country.

With recent efforts by Russia and the United States to narrow their differences on the Syrian issue, most importantly on the political future of Bashar al-Assad, there are many reasons to be optimistic about this election. The people who are most looking forward to the possibility of the election creating a new step in resolving the conflict in Syria are the people of this country.

After more than 5 years, the civil war in Syria has claimed the lives of 250,000 people, pushed 6.6 million people into homelessness, and more than 4.8 million people have become refugees in other countries, so the Syrian people really hope that the election can bring changes to the country and to themselves.

Assad's confidence

According to analysts, after Russia and the US promoted the ceasefire agreement in Syria from February 27, the organization of this parliamentary election is a step by President Assad to gain control over the implementation of the political process in Syria. President Assad expressed great confidence in the victory of his Baath Party, which means continuing to maintain the right to run the country when he said that the Syrian government is ready to pardon all forces currently opposing the Syrian government.

The vote carries the hope of the Syrian people. Photo: AP

Mr. Assad has every reason to be confident, the most important of which are the victories on the battlefield after Russia’s strategic intervention since September last year. Moreover, the fact that the elections were held in areas under government control is also a guarantee of the Baath Party’s victory, thereby maintaining control of the new legislature.

In addition to his tactical advantages, Mr. Assad is also considered to know how to “score points” with the Syrian people. The world media was recently quite surprised when the Syrian government organized international press delegations to Palmyra - the city that the government army had just taken control of from IS, although previously very few foreign reporters were granted visas to enter Syria.

But this time, they were treated with great respect and invited to take pictures of the still-preserved ruins of Palmyra. Analysts say the media coverage will be the perfect backdrop for Bashar al-Assad as a national hero who has fought back against terrorism.

Moreover, Palmyra is the “jewel” of Syria’s tourism industry, and the symbol of Palmyra is also the symbol of Syria’s post-war reconstruction. The slogan used on the posters of the parliamentary elections also follows this consistent message: “Let us join hands to rebuild Syria” – of course, “join hands” under the leadership of Mr. Assad! Without mentioning any individuals, only mentioning Syria, the country’s path forward, Mr. Assad has hit the psychology of the Syrian people who want to live in a peaceful and unified country.

What scenario for Syria?

Although the Syrian people have high expectations for this parliamentary election, analysts say it is unlikely to have a major impact on the political process in Syria. On the same day as the election, peace talks for Syria resumed in Geneva, Switzerland. However, the Syrian government delegation announced that it would arrive late in Geneva.

Many people believe that Mr. Assad is waiting for the most favorable results of the election, when the negotiating team will go to Geneva with the message: "In Syria, Mr. Assad's government is the only legitimate government, and it is the government chosen by the Syrian people", thereby gaining a certain advantage at the negotiating table.

Polling stations are heavily guarded: Photo: AP

However, Mr. Assad’s plans may not be so easy to achieve. Yesterday’s election in Syria was still boycotted by the opposition, and it is likely that the election results will not be widely recognized by the international community, except for Russia and Iran. The opposition may even use this event as an excuse to accuse the Syrian government of not having the goodwill to negotiate and move towards a political solution, thereby making demands or rejecting peace talks, causing the peace talks to fall into a deadlock and eventually collapse.

Meanwhile, UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura has also emphasized that the goal of peace negotiations is to hold a UN-supervised election within the next 18 months - an election in which any Syrian can run, not through the current strict government screening.

However, there is still reason to expect positive impacts of this parliamentary election on the political process in Syria. The current situation of the war in Syria has changed a lot, so the successful organization of the election will increase the legitimacy of policies related to the civil war and the political process of the country, pushing the Syrian rebels into a position where they have no more options at the negotiating table other than to accept to promote compromise and move towards a political solution to the current crisis./.

Thuy Ngoc