Is the nuclear race "reviving" in Northeast Asia?

(Baonghean) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's statement that his country is ready to use nuclear weapons at any time and is always in a "pre-emptive strike" posture if threatened by an enemy is adding to the tension in the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. These moves have not only been criticized as "provocative" but also have the potential to revive nuclear arms races in the region.

North Korea's trump card

In a move seen as a defiance of new UN sanctions announced on March 2, North Korea immediately launched a series of short-range missiles, followed by an order from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to put the entire nuclear arsenal on standby.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un calls for readiness to use nuclear weapons at any time. Photo: Reuters.

Pyongyang's defiance of the toughest sanctions ever imposed is believed to be because Mr. Kim wants the world to recognize North Korea as a nuclear power.

Whether the North Korean leader’s statements are true or just threats, they raise concerns about Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons production capacity. That means that after decades of sanctions, North Korea has not only not collapsed but has on the contrary developed its military equipment production capacity.

According to the latest assessment by the Pentagon released a few weeks ago: “North Korea is eager to develop long-range missiles, with nuclear warheads capable of crossing the Pacific Ocean, threatening the United States.” The assessment also stated that North Korea’s nuclear weapons technology and ballistic missile development are at the right level for the country’s goal of attacking the US mainland.

So why, under the pressure of international sanctions, is North Korea still determined to pursue nuclear weapons? Perhaps, for North Korea, nuclear weapons are seen as a trump card to protect itself.

North Korean army soldiers. Photo: Reuters.

Another argument that generations of North Korean leaders have made is that North Korea will not disarm its nuclear weapons when other major powers like the United States refuse to disarm.

Nuclear race for self-defense

Behind the concerns are the effects of defense and self-defense against North Korea's offensive capabilities. So how to defend yourself? That is to create "nuclear umbrellas" or develop more advanced nuclear weapons to deter Pyongyang. This is the most worrying thing in the context of the nuclear crisis that has not been defused.

Currently, the US and South Korea are considered the two countries most insecure in the face of the threat from North Korea's nuclear weapons. Technically, North Korea and South Korea have been at war for more than 60 years. Conflict between the two sides can happen at any time. Meanwhile, North Korea considers the US an "arch-enemy". Meanwhile, the US is forced to have the "responsibility" to ensure the security of its allies in the region.

US and South Korean defense officials discussed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system on March 4. Photo: Yonhap.

Therefore, Pyongyang’s “old-fashioned” actions will likely lead to the revival of negotiations on the deployment of US strategic nuclear weapons in South Korean territory and waters. These types of weapons were withdrawn from the Korean peninsula in the early 1990s, and Washington and Seoul are still hesitant about the plan to redeploy them.

However, some military experts believe that the US and South Korea should still consider it as an option. In the immediate future, to show support for South Korea, the US has begun deploying strategic military equipment in this Northeast Asian ally. In addition, in the latest move, South Korea and the US officially started negotiations on the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system.

However, all of that is not enough to reassure the South Korean people about the threat of nuclear weapons from their aggressive neighbor. Experts do not rule out the possibility that Seoul also wants to pursue nuclear weapons to protect itself.

This has a basis when, in the past, after each nuclear test by Pyongyang, there was a wave of public opinion calling for South Korea to develop nuclear weapons to deter North Korea. However, such opinions were quickly calmed.

This time, however, the idea has been raised for serious discussion and is supported by senior members of the ruling party. A recent Asan Institute poll found that nearly 54% of South Koreans support Seoul's nuclear development.

Even after North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb in January and continued to launch a satellite-carrying rocket on February 7, Yonhap quoted lawmaker Won Yoo-cheol of the ruling Saenuri Party calling on Seoul to develop its own nuclear weapons or allow the US to redeploy them on its territory to counter North Korea.

This trend is clearly a sign of instability in the Northeast Asian region. This context awaits open and sincere dialogue, an international negotiation to “cool down” the Korean peninsula. Only then can the risk of conflict or an arms race in this region be prevented./.

Thanh Huyen