Ukraine's Spring Offensive Could Put US and NATO at Risk

According to leaked Pentagon documents, Ukraine has assembled 12 brigades for the counter-offensive plan. Nine of these 12 brigades are equipped with American and European armor and artillery. The remaining three brigades use old weapons and equipment of Soviet origin, some of which have been upgraded by Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces from Bakhmut to Kostyantynivka in Donetsk province on May 29. Photo: Reuters

Typically, each brigade can have between 3,000 and 5,000 soldiers. Ukraine is planning to deploy 60,000 troops for the offensive, focusing on efforts to break Russian control of Black Sea ports. However, it is not ruled out that its forces could launch simultaneous attacks on Crimea and Sevastopol.

The secret documents show that much of Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive plan has received significant support from the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, who has taken an extremely hard line on Russia. According to her argument, Ukraine needs to regain control of the Crimean peninsula, and to do that, they must achieve absolute superiority over Russia, meaning they must regain every square meter of lost territory. President Zelensky seems to agree with this view.

The outlook for Ukraine's counteroffensive is not very optimistic.

Kiev is hoping for a major breakthrough from its counter-offensive, but some secret documents reveal that the prospects for success are bleak. Despite the US and the West pledging to increase military aid, observers say Ukraine's counter-offensive will face many major obstacles.

First of all, Ukraine’s nine newly formed Western-armed brigades have less armor than NATO promised. Moreover, operating a wide variety of weapons and vehicles is not easy, and field repair work is complicated by the lack of spare parts. The US and Europe have established several repair stations in Poland and Romania, but they are far from the conflict zone.

The leaked Pentagon documents also say that Ukraine is running out of air defenses due to heavy use or destruction by Russia. Even the Patriot interceptors that the US has transferred to Ukraine are not available unless they are replenished from US or European stocks. That means Russia will have the air advantage and in any conflict, they will use this advantage against Ukraine.

The lack of ammunition is also a major problem that makes it difficult for Ukraine to succeed in its counterattack. In terms of ammunition for artillery systems, the US has provided large quantities of 155mm high-explosive shells for Ukraine to use in artillery systems it received from the West, such as the M-777 howitzer with a range of 21km. Up to now, Ukraine has fired nearly 1 million 155mm shells. With such a high rate of artillery shell consumption, it is unclear whether Kiev can maintain its counterattack for long.

The United States and Europe have supplied Ukraine with about 300 towed and self-propelled guns. Ukraine also has Soviet-era D-30 122mm howitzers, but these systems are being depleted by Russian drone, missile and artillery attacks. Meanwhile, Moscow has about 6,000 artillery and rocket systems in Ukraine. The same problem occurs with the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). HIMARS uses guided multiple launch rockets (GMLRS), which have a range of 15 to 70km, and each missile costs about $160,000. Ukraine is believed to have fired more than 9,600 of these missiles. According to the Pentagon, missiles for the HIMARS system are no longer in the supply plan. Meanwhile, Russia claims to have found many effective ways to shoot down HIMARS.

Since the conflict began, Ukraine has lost a number of elite units. Observers say its newly formed brigades may not be able to muster the necessary numbers of skilled or experienced soldiers. But Kiev is working to demonstrate its ability to rebuild its forces and change tactics, especially after bringing back US- and NATO-trained armored units.

However, the deployment of the majority of forces in Bakhmut (estimated at 10,000 to 15,000 soldiers) and in other places such as (Avdiivka, Vuhledar ...) is leaving Ukraine with two difficult choices: whether to relieve these forces before Russia gains control of all of Bakhmut or to launch an attack in late spring and let them hold out in their positions.

According to analysts, Russia is making steady progress in the battles at Bakhmut and Avdiivka. If Moscow breaks through Ukraine’s defenses in the Donbass and moves west, it will not face a major obstacle. This scenario would force Ukraine to split its counteroffensive brigades instead of regrouping them, or to find a way to prevent Russia from reaching the Dnieper River and threatening to attack Kiev. In short, the overall picture of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is not very promising. To succeed, Ukraine will need to wait until the US and NATO can provide all the heavy equipment and ammunition it needs, but that is expected to take years.

The US and NATO could be in a dangerous situation.

According to secret US documents, Ukraine's late spring counter-offensive could put the US and NATO in danger.

First, NATO’s stockpiles of weapons and ammunition are running low. Even pro-Ukrainian European politicians are starting to lose patience. In addition, the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline has caused a rift between the US and Germany – the two leading countries of the alliance.

Second, NATO would have difficulty defending its 2,600km border with Russia, once Finland joins the alliance, if fighting broke out outside Ukraine. Some NATO members have fairly strong armies, but others have small, under-armed armies.

Not to mention the huge divisions within NATO over the Ukraine conflict. Hungary, for example, does not support the US position on this issue. Türkiye insists that it will not join the sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Since the Pentagon Papers were leaked, there has been growing skepticism about Ukraine’s ability to fight a protracted conflict of attrition.

Third, unlike the US and NATO, which are increasing weapons production in stages, Russia’s defense industry is stepping up production of ammunition and weapons on the basis of a full-scale conflict. Russia has or is seeking to increase its manpower and its forces are also fighting more effectively. If Russia gains the upper hand on the battlefield, Ukraine will likely lose its leverage in negotiations and the support of the US and other NATO members will be like “a drop in the ocean”./.