Why have the US and Russia not reached an agreement on Syria?

(Baonghean.vn) - On September 5, Russia and the United States continued to fail in their efforts to narrow the gap to reach a ceasefire in Syria. In the meeting that followed between US President Barrack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two US and Russian leaders affirmed that they would continue negotiations to reach a ceasefire in Syria.

US Secretary of State John Kerry (left) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (right) at a press conference on Syria in Geneva (Switzerland), August 2016. Photo: Reuters.

A meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20 summit in China ended on September 5 without reaching an agreement on a ceasefire in Syria. US President Barack Obama said that on Sunday (September 4), US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov also met but were still unable to overcome their differences. A US official said that there were still “disagreements that need to be resolved” without specifying what those differences were or when the meeting between the two foreign ministers would resume.

The civil war in Syria since 2011 has killed 250,000 people and forced 11 million to flee their homes, causing a massive wave of refugees to Europe and the risk of terrorism spreading around the world. In recent months, as all sides have stepped up attacks, hundreds of thousands of people have been trapped in the crossfire in war zones in Syria such as Aleppo and Ramadi. This situation has created an urgent need for a ceasefire to facilitate the delivery of aid and help the Syrian people escape their miserable situation.

Over the past few weeks, the US and Russia have made many efforts to reach a ceasefire between the government and rebel forces in Syria. During this time, Russian and US mediators have tried to map the areas occupied by the forces to help the parties control the implementation when a ceasefire is reached. However, many difficulties have appeared but have not been resolved. Along with the big differences in views between the parties on the Syrian issue over the past years, public opinion has doubted that the parties will soon reach a ceasefire agreement.

The meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov yesterday was the third meeting between the two since last July. The continuous meetings between the heads of the US and Russian State Departments show the efforts and desire of both sides to reach a real ceasefire agreement.

However, if you look closely, you can see that the US side seems to be more enthusiastic about this story than Russia. Although Mr. John Kerry declared that "there is no need to rush", because of the Syria issue, this year, US Secretary of State John Kerry had to visit Russia twice and had many meetings with his Russian counterpart. Mr. John Kerry is also the highest-ranking US leader to visit Russia since the two countries' relations became tense due to the Crimea issue. The US has many reasons not to continue to hesitate in this story.

The first reason is the goal of regaining the initiative in the Syrian issue. When announcing airstrikes against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Syria, the US probably calculated that being one step ahead in its efforts to fight IS would be a multi-target arrow, helping the country gather support in the Middle East and through this campaign, the US would achieve the goal of eliminating Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, up to now, the US has not achieved any of its goals. Not only that, since Russia received the consent of the Syrian government to open a separate front against IS in Syria, the image of the US has become weak and passive. While the US was confused in its plan to destroy IS, immediately after launching the first campaigns, Russia continuously announced victories in destroying and breaking the pincers of IS in many places. Russia's direct involvement in the fight against IS has also attracted the important participation of Iran and Turkey, two neighboring countries of Syria and with great influence in the region. Therefore, if the US does not proactively push the parties to reach an agreement on any content related to the Syrian issue, the US will only be the initiator but the final victory will belong to Russia.

A burned car after an airstrike near Hama, Syria. Photo: Anodoly Agency/Getty Images.

The second reason is “term thinking”. President Obama’s time in office is running out, so if he can contribute to solving the Syria issue, it will create a memorable mark for the Obama administration. This mark is not only important for the outgoing administration but also has great significance for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House. In the context of the race for the White House entering the final stage, a ceasefire agreement (if any) in Syria will be proof of the Democratic leader’s correct foreign policy, thereby contributing to consolidating and gaining the support of American voters for Hillary Clinton.

In a meeting after the US and Russian foreign ministers failed to narrow their differences on the Syria issue, US President Obama and Russian President Putin agreed that the two countries would continue discussions to reach a ceasefire in Syria. Although Russia and the US have not officially announced it, public opinion said that, up to now, both sides have only reached an agreement that children, women and innocent people in Syria need to be provided with food and medical care.

The biggest difficulty that prevents the parties from getting closer is determining which forces are terrorists so that Russia and the US can coordinate their attacks. Currently, in Syria, there are not only government forces and IS forces operating, but also many other forces. The complexity lies in the fact that these forces have different support groups and targets, causing cross-attacks, making the situation in Syria even more chaotic. The US accuses Russia of attacking targets that are not IS but US-sponsored forces to protect the government of President al-Assad. Therefore, the US hopes that the ceasefire agreement will both reduce damage to the US-backed forces and help the two sides cooperate more closely and effectively for a common goal of fighting IS.

Meanwhile, Russia wants the US to break its ties with the Al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front, which Russia believes is making the situation in Syria more chaotic. With all sides having different goals and cards, it is inevitable that they will be distracted from the goal of fighting IS, making it even more difficult to find common ground. However, it is important that while the issue remains unresolved, neither Russia nor the US has given up on negotiating, so the glimmer of hope for a ceasefire continues to shine.

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