Donald Trump is regaining credibility

(Baonghean.vn) - Over the past week, the race for the Oval Office has become significantly more intense. According to a Reuters/Ipsos investigation, a number of states have shifted from supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to neutral.

The gap between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is narrowing. Getty Images

The two candidates are currently focused on Florida and North Carolina. In Michigan and Ohio, the gap between Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton is so tight that it is difficult to predict the outcome. Pennsylvania appears to be leaning towards Mrs. Clinton.

To win, Mr. Trump needs to win both Florida and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Mrs. Clinton can lose both states and still win.

National polls show that Clinton has a 90% chance of winning 270 electoral votes (down 5% from last week).

By all accounts, however, Mr. Trump had a good showing last week. He gained 24 states while losing only 11. By contrast, Mrs. Clinton gained only 13 states and lost 22.

Mr. Trump's victory was due to new controversies surrounding Mrs. Clinton's email scandal, when FBI director James Comey announced that he would investigate newly discovered emails on October 28.

Mr Trump and other Republicans seized on the news to question Mrs Clinton's credibility, while Democrats complained about the unfairness of the vote and how it could influence voters in the final days of the election.

It's unclear whether the FBI investigation will upset the balance of the race, but multiple polls have shown the gap narrowing in recent days.

Last week, Clinton led by an average of 4-7 points, but this week it has dropped to just 2-3 points.

From October 28 to November 1, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton leading by 6%, the same score as before the FBI announcement.

In addition, the Democratic Party is also worried because Mrs. Clinton's current score is lower than Mr. Obama's in the 2012 election.

It is unclear why Clinton’s early voter turnout is lower than Obama’s. It may be because fewer people are voting early. It may also be because she does not receive as much support from African Americans as Obama, the first black president of the United States.

If the number of black voters drops 15 points, Mrs. Clinton's chances of winning will drop to only 72% with 32 electoral votes.

Even if she only loses 10 points among black voters combined with a 5% increase in white voters for the Republicans, the game can be turned around, bringing victory to Mr. Trump.

The good news for the congresswoman is that 60 percent of Hispanic voters are likely to vote for her, the same number that Obama did in 2012, so a 10-point gain in Hispanic areas can make up for a 10-point loss in black areas.

Still, Clinton's prospects are not completely lost. She made a strong impression in Arizona, a traditionally Republican state. She also regained the upper hand in Pennsylvania and Nevada.

Thanh Hien

(According to Reuters)