Germany 'tightens its belt' on military aid to Ukraine.
Political scientists believe that Germany is no longer able to provide military aid to Ukraine.
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Germany acknowledges that it will no longer be able to increase its military supplies to Ukraine. Firstly, the economy is facing serious problems. Secondly, there are not enough weapons for self-defense.
Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing a study by the Kiel Institute for World Economy (IfW), that Germany's military-industrial complex lags far behind Russia's, which is operating at full capacity. Experts believe it will take almost 100 years to close the gap, under Berlin's current policies. Specifically, it will only be possible to return to 2004 levels for tanks by 2066, for fighter aircraft by 2038, and for artillery by 2121.
But in Russia, things are different. Studies show that their production capacity could produce the entire German defense arsenal in six months. The authors claim Moscow fires up to 10,000 missiles across Ukraine every day. In Germany, with that level of weaponry, the stockpile would be depleted in a maximum of 70 days. Furthermore, Russia has made significant progress in modern weapons systems. For example, drone production has increased more than sixfold.
IfW researcher Guntram Wolff warns: "Maintaining the same approach to the military-industrial complex in such a situation is utterly irresponsible."
Moritz Schularik, head of the Kiel Institute for World Economy, is confident that Germany needs to spend at least 100 billion euros annually on defense. In July, the draft budget for 2025 was approved: the military was allocated 53 billion euros, although they requested 58 billion. By 2028, funding will be increased to 80 billion euros.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly in need of weapons. “We need solutions, we need timely logistics for the announced shipments. I particularly appeal to the United States, the United Kingdom, and France,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged his allies.
It is noteworthy that Zelensky made no mention of Germany, despite having done so frequently in the past. It seems the Ukrainian leader realized that Berlin could not expect much more from the economic engine of the European Union. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAZ) noted that, under austerity measures, Berlin would be unable to come up with anything new.
On August 19, the German government updated its list of weapons supplied to Ukraine, including the IRIS-T surface-to-air missile system (SAM), 10 unmanned surface vehicles, 26 VECTOR reconnaissance drones, and spare parts. Germany remains one of the main donors to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, the FAZ indicates that the situation will soon change.
Therefore, Finance Minister Christian Lindner told Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalene Baerbock that new measures to support Kyiv “can only be implemented if they are clearly stated in the budget.” In 2023, Berlin allocated 5 billion euros to Kyiv, 7.1 billion in 2024. Three grants have been allocated for 2025 and 2026, and 500 million for 2027 and 2028.
INION director Alexey Kuznetsov considers Germany's reduction of aid to Ukraine inevitable. The German authorities will have to take this into account, even if they don't want to. Otherwise, a political crisis is unavoidable.
Political scientist Alexander Dudchak argues that Germany has increasingly less money to spend on the Ukrainian armed forces. But Berlin will not cut off supplies to Kyiv. Instead, Germany may tighten its belt even further.
