The possibility that the US is ceding Asia to China

According to Gallup polls, the cornerstone of American power in Asia, Japan, Australia and South Korea, all lost some confidence in their close ally and long-time protector in 2017. No military equipment was withdrawn, no embassies were closed, but the lack of attention due to the US administration's focus on "America First" policy has shaken the country's position in the region.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photo: AP

“When we attend international conferences (around Asia) these days, no one really talks about America anymore... which is a bit strange,” said Chisuke Masuo, associate professor at the Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies at Kyushu University in Japan.

Meanwhile, many flashpoints across the region could test America's commitment to its allies, and Masuo said China is likely to exploit these tense flashpoints to demonstrate its regional superiority.

“The US may want to change its Asia policy after three years, but I am concerned about whether this is feasible. China is restructuring the entire international order in the Asia-Pacific,” Ms. Masuo explained.

Nowhere in Southeast Asia is the power struggle between the United States and China more evident than in the battle for control of the South China Sea.

CNN news agency quoted expert Ian Storey of the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute as saying that since Mr. Trump took office, tensions have faded in the context of Washington and Beijing focusing on the Korean Peninsula.

However, the expert said tensions could rise again. According to Mr. Storey, there are some boundaries that China could cross in the next three years that would trigger a strong reaction from the US and some Southeast Asian countries.

Satellite images show construction work on Fiery Cross Reef, a reef occupied by China. Photo: CSIS

“So far China has refrained from sending any fighter jets to the artificial islands in the South China Sea, but given the scale of the facilities being built on three or four features for aircraft, it will only be a matter of time,” Storey said. “This move will provoke a reaction from Southeast Asian countries… so I think China is being cautious at this point.”

However, some countries in Southeast Asia tend to be closer to China in the context of the fading influence of the US in the region, including the sudden change of attitude of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte last year. However, the country considered an important test of China's growing influence in Southeast Asia is Vietnam, a country that has emerged as a US ally in recent years.

In 2017, Vietnam built closer defense and security ties with the United States. This year, a U.S. aircraft carrier will visit Vietnam for the first time since the end of the Vietnam War. Storey said any move by Vietnam toward China would be a surprise. “It would be a major indicator that China is winning in the region and Southeast Asian countries are giving in to Beijing,” he said.