The spark that ignites conflict or the beginning of the end of the Syrian crisis?

(Baonghean) - On November 24, Türkiye confirmed that its military shot down a Russian Su-24 that was conducting airstrikes against IS in Syria because it violated Turkish airspace. Immediately, the event attracted the attention of international public opinion. Nghe An Newspaper interviewed Major General Le Van Cuong - Associate Professor, PhD, Former Director of the Institute of Science and Strategy of the Ministry of Public Security on this issue.

Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Science and Strategy, Ministry of Public Security, answered an interview with Nghe An Newspaper.

Reporter:Up to now, both Russia and Türkiye have not agreed on the truth of the incident: did the Russian plane violate Turkish airspace when it was shot down? Could you please give your opinion on this matter, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:From the beginning, Türkiye asserted that the Russian fighter jet violated its airspace. On November 25, the country also released an audio recording showing that the signal and warning message were broadcast multiple times before launching the missile to shoot down the target.

However, the Russian side has provided a map of the Su-24's route showing that the fighter jet did not violate Turkish airspace, and the crash site of the plane was also in Syrian territory, about 4km from the Turkish border.

Most recently, one of the two Russian pilots on the downed plane confirmed that he did not fly the plane into Turkish airspace and did not receive any warning signals.

I personally lean towards Russia’s stance, because Russian President Vladimir Putin announced to the press in Sochi that the Su-24 did not violate Turkish airspace. With the position and voice of the head of a major country, the Russian President is wise enough to weigh his words before speaking to the world.

History will have a definitive answer, because the coordinates and location of the plane were certainly recorded by air traffic control and measurement agencies.

The Su-24 plane crashed in Syrian territory, 4km from the Turkish border. Photo: EPA

Reporter:What is your assessment of this event, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I consider this an unusual event both in the local context and in the preceding political context.

If the Russian Su-24 did not violate Turkish airspace, there is no reason to launch a missile to shoot down the Su-24. Even if it did, it was just a rare incident during the process of moving and pursuing the target, unable to go deep into Turkish airspace, just sending a warning signal would be enough.

Given the previous political context, the relationship between Russia and Türkiye was relatively stable, even trending upwards after 2 years of decline. Not only did the two countries cooperate in diplomacy and economics, they also cooperated militarily. This proved that their relationship was normal, even much better.

Thus, the external factors do not match with Türkiye's action of shooting down the Russian plane. The whole world was surprised and raised big questions about the cause of the incident.

Reporter:There are opinions that Türkiye is not “alone” in this action. What is your comment on this view, Major General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I also agree with this point of view. Because besides the contextual reason as I mentioned above, there are 2 other reasons that lead to the above inference.

First, the balance of power between Türkiye and Russia is too unequal. The Ankara government is sober enough to know that Türkiye cannot confront Russia.

Second, in terms of international law, the act of shooting down a friendly country's aircraft that does not violate or threaten airspace and national security is unacceptable.

So Türkiye itself has no reason, and if it did, it would not have the ability or position to directly provoke Russia. Most likely, Türkiye is just a card on the big chessboard!

Reporter:According to the Major General, what is the purpose of this action?

Major General Le Van Cuong:If there really is a force behind Türkiye's actions this time, their purpose is not difficult to guess.

First, to deter Russia in the fight against IS in the Middle East as well as in the process of resolving the Syrian conflict. We all know that Russia's air campaign in the Middle East has only started since September 30, but its effectiveness is far superior to what the West has done in more than a year. If someone wants to restrain a Russia that is on the rise, it is understandable.

Russians protested and threw stones at the Turkish Embassy in Moscow on November 25. Photo: AFP

At the same time, this warning message could target the Russian people's psychology, inciting them to protest the Kremlin's policy in the Middle East.

Second, reassure and strengthen the trust of regional allies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, etc. Thereby affirming that NATO's position in the region cannot be replaced by anyone, including Russia.

Reporter:How did and will Russia react after Türkiye shot down the Su-24 and Syrian rebels shot down the helicopter that came to rescue the pilot?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Faced with such a direct provocation, Russia of course cannot “sit still”. The Kremlin immediately made a decision to respond in many areas, clearly showing its attitude towards Türkiye.

On the diplomatic front, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has canceled a visit to Türkiye scheduled for November 25.

Economically, Russia announced the termination of economic cooperation with Türkiye, especially in tourism and trade.

Socially, Russian citizens are advised not to travel to Türkiye and tourist routes to the country have been canceled.

Militarily, Russia has dispatched the Moskva missile cruiser and deployed the S-400 air defense system to protect the air base in Latakia province, Syria. This shows Russia's determination to pursue the war in the Middle East and is the most eloquent answer to those behind the recent incident of shooting down the Su-24 plane.

Russia's S-400 air defense missile system will be deployed to an air base in Syria. Source: defencerussia.wordpress.com

Reporter:World public opinion is concerned about a conflict between Russia and Türkiye, even between Russia and the US. Is this a possibility and will the downing of the Su-24 affect the process of resolving the Syrian crisis?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I think that the conflict between Russia and Türkiye is an inevitable scenario, but it will only take place at a low level in a narrow space and time range and will not escalate into war.

For example, if Türkiye attacks Russian targets again, Russia will immediately “retaliate” on the spot. Regarding the relationship between Russia and the US, I think they are pushing each other to the brink but will know when to stop. Neither side is ready for a war at the moment.

This political climax will be the spark needed to push the Syrian crisis into a new, decisive phase. Remember that while Türkiye shot down the Su-24, the Russian President was holding talks in Tehran, and the West is certainly not happy with the handshake between Russia and Iran, whatever its purpose.

This event will not be able to restrain but on the contrary, push Russia to be more aggressive in its air campaign in Syria, along with the support of Iranian troops on the ground. With such a development, the government of Mr. Bashar al-Assad will be able to expand the liberated areas, consolidate its position and voice in the country and the region.

Under pressure to balance its position with Russia, the West will have no choice but to intensify its efforts in the fight against terrorism. Only then will there be hope of ending the Syrian crisis, starting with the international coalitions determined to eradicate terrorism.

Reporter:Thank you, Major General, for the chat!

Thuc Anh

(Perform)