Will this spark ignite conflict or mark the beginning of the end to the Syrian crisis?

(Baonghean) - On November 24, Turkey confirmed that its military had shot down a Russian Su-24 aircraft operating in the airstrike campaign against ISIS in Syria for violating Turkish airspace. Immediately, the event attracted widespread international attention. Baonghean newspaper interviewed Major General Le Van Cuong, Associate Professor, Doctor, former Director of the Institute of Science and Strategy under the Ministry of Public Security, about this issue.

Major General Le Van Cuong - Former Director of the Institute of Science and Strategy, Ministry of Public Security, answers an interview with Nghe An Newspaper.

Reporter:To date, both Russia and Türkiye have yet to agree on the true circumstances of the incident: did the Russian plane violate Turkish airspace when it was shot down? Could the Major General please comment on this matter?

Major General Le Van Cuong:From the outset, Türkiye asserted that Russian fighter jets had violated its airspace. On November 25, it also released an audio recording showing warning signals and messages being broadcast multiple times before the missile was launched to shoot down the target.

However, Russia has released a flight path map of the Su-24 aircraft showing that the fighter jet did not violate Turkish airspace, and the crash site of the wreckage is also within Syrian territory, about 4km from the Turkish border.

Most recently, one of the two Russian pilots on board the downed aircraft asserted that he did not fly the plane into Turkish airspace and did not receive any warning signals.

I personally lean towards Russia's position, because Russian President Vladimir Putin announced to the press in Sochi that the Su-24 did not violate Turkish airspace. Given his status and influence as the head of a major power, the Russian President is wise enough to carefully consider his words before speaking to the world.

History will eventually provide the definitive answer, because the aircraft's coordinates and position were undoubtedly recorded by air traffic control and monitoring agencies.

The Su-24 aircraft crashed in Syrian territory, 4km from the Turkish border. Photo: EPA

Reporter:What is the Major General's assessment of this event?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I consider this an unusual event, both in the context of the situation on the ground and the preceding political context.

If the Russian Su-24 aircraft did not violate Turkish airspace, there is no justification for the missile that shot it down. Even if it did, it would only be a rare incident during flight or pursuit of a target, unable to penetrate deep into Turkish airspace; a simple warning signal would have sufficed.

Given the previous political context, relations between Russia and Türkiye are relatively stable, even showing signs of improvement after two years of decline. Beyond diplomatic and economic cooperation, the two countries also engage in military collaboration. This demonstrates that their relationship is now normal, or even much better than it seems.

Thus, external factors did not align with Turkey's action of shooting down the Russian plane. The whole world was surprised and raised serious questions about the cause of the incident.

Reporter:Some argue that Türkiye is not acting alone in this matter. What are your comments on this viewpoint, General?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I also agree with this point of view. Because besides the contextual reasons I mentioned above, there are two other reasons that lead to this conclusion.

First, the balance of power between Türkiye and Russia is too unequal. The Ankara government is well aware that Türkiye cannot possibly confront Russia.

Secondly, from the perspective of international law, shooting down a foreign aircraft that does not violate or threaten national airspace and security is unacceptable.

Therefore, Türkiye itself has no reason, and even if it did, it wouldn't have the capability or the standing, to directly provoke Russia. It's highly likely that Türkiye is merely a pawn on a larger chessboard!

Reporter:According to the Major General, what was the purpose of this action?

Major General Le Van Cuong:If there is indeed a force behind Türkiye's actions, their purpose is not difficult to guess.

Firstly, it's about deterring Russia in the fight against ISIS in the Middle East, as well as in the process of resolving the Syrian conflict. We all know that Russia's airstrike campaign in the Middle East only began on September 30th, but its effectiveness far surpasses what the West has achieved in over a year. It's understandable if someone wants to restrain a Russia that is currently on a roll.

Russians protested and threw stones at the Turkish embassy in Moscow on November 25. Photo: AFP

At the same time, this warning message could be aimed at the psychology of the Russian people, inciting them to oppose the Kremlin's policies in the Middle East.

Secondly, it reassures and strengthens the confidence of allies in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, etc., thereby affirming that NATO's position in the region cannot be replaced by anyone, including Russia.

Reporter:How has Russia reacted, and will it react, after Türkiye shot down the Su-24 and Syrian rebels shot down a helicopter attempting to rescue its pilot?

Major General Le Van Cuong:Faced with such a direct provocation, Russia, of course, could not remain inactive. The Kremlin immediately decided to respond in multiple areas, clearly demonstrating its stance towards Türkiye.

In terms of diplomacy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov canceled his planned visit to Türkiye on November 25th.

Economically, Russia announced the termination of economic cooperation with Türkiye, particularly in tourism and trade.

Socially, Russian citizens are advised not to travel to Türkiye, and travel to the country has been cancelled.

Militarily, Russia has deployed the missile cruiser Moskva and the S-400 air defense system to protect its air base in Latakia province, Syria. This demonstrates Russia's determination to pursue the conflict in the Middle East and is the most forceful response to those behind the recent downing of the Su-24 aircraft.

Russia's S-400 air defense missile system will be deployed to an air base in Syria. Source: defencerussia.wordpress.com

Reporter:Global public opinion is concerned about a potential conflict between Russia and Türkiye, or even between Russia and the United States. Is this a possibility, and will the downing of the Su-24 aircraft impact the resolution of the Syrian crisis?

Major General Le Van Cuong:I believe that conflict between Russia and Türkiye is an unavoidable scenario, but it will likely be at a low level within a narrow timeframe and spatial context, rather than escalating into war.

For example, if Türkiye were to attack Russian targets again, Russia would immediately retaliate. Regarding the relationship between Russia and the US, I believe they are pushing each other to the brink, but they will know when to stop. Neither is ready for a war at this time.

This escalating political conflict will be the necessary spark to propel the Syrian crisis resolution process into a new, decisive phase. Remember that while Turkey shot down the Su-24, the Russian President was holding talks in Tehran, and the West was certainly not pleased with the handshake between Russia and Iran, whatever the purpose.

This event will not only fail to deter but will also spur Russia to intensify its airstrike campaign in Syria, with the support of Iranian ground forces. With such developments, the Bashar al-Assad regime will be able to expand its liberated areas, consolidating its position and influence domestically and regionally.

Under pressure to balance the playing field with Russia, the West will have no choice but to intensify its efforts in the fight against terrorism. Only then can the Syrian crisis hopefully come to an end, starting with the international coalition's decisive efforts to eradicate terrorism.

Reporter:Thank you, Major General, for the conversation!

Thuc Anh

(Perform)