America has “hard options” for the worst case scenario!

Putting Russia and China in 'crosshairs'

The worst case scenario that the US is heading towards is a war with its strategic rivals: Russia and China - two countries that the US considers to be 'revisionist powers'.

US Defense Secretary James Mattis announces the 2018 National Defense Strategy Photo: AP

This was emphasized by US Secretary of Defense James Mattis when announcing his speech on the 2018 National Defense Strategy. According to Secretary Mattis, this strategy sets out the goal of urgent, large-scale change in the US military. The head of the Pentagon believes that the US needs to use innovative approaches, sustainable investments, focusing on establishing a suitable Joint Force that can compete, prevent and win in an increasingly complex security environment.

The US aims to strengthen its allies and attract new partners with its new Defense Strategy. Photo: US Marine Corps

The guiding idea for the United States is that the best way to prevent war is to prepare to win. This requires a competitive approach to power development and long-term investment to restore readiness and deter potential threats. The United States also calls on its European allies to make commitments to increase defense spending and modernize their militaries to strengthen the alliance in response to common security concerns. This, in turn, is nothing less than maintaining American preeminence globally.

Elaborating on the content of this strategy, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby said that in recent years, China and Russia have been constantly striving to develop their military capabilities. Therefore, Mr. Mattis' strategy aims to address the current weakening of the US military advantage.

For the first time in years, the US has replaced terrorism with Russia and China as the real threats to 'American power', marking a significant shift in US defense priorities after more than a decade and a half of focusing on the fight against Islamic extremists.

The 2018 National Defense Strategy builds on and clarifies the views expressed by President Donald Trump in his national security strategy just a month ago, which identified Russia and China as "political rivals intent on challenging American power, security, and prosperity." According to the White House, the new national security strategy reflects President Trump's "America First" priorities: protecting America and its borders, rebuilding the military, projecting power abroad, and pursuing trade policies that are more favorable to the United States.

In response to the strategy, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized the US document, describing its orientation as “confrontational.” Lavrov rejected US arguments that China and Russia were undermining international efforts to strengthen global security. Lavrov stressed that instead of using the basis of international law, Washington was in fact trying to demonstrate its leadership through such confrontational strategies and concepts.

The Chinese embassy in Washington has criticized the Pentagon's new strategy, saying China seeks "global partnership, not global domination." "If some people look at the world with a Cold War mindset and a zero-sum game, they will eventually see conflict and confrontation,"Xinhua News Agency"With such a mindset, global peace and development are unattainable ideals," a Chinese embassy representative said.

The uncertainties of the game

Thus, once again, the 'America First' doctrine is mentioned in future orientations. The Donald Trump administration has emphasized the factor of ensuring homeland security and border security at a more detailed and focused level than before.

And to create the potential for that hard power, the US places the economy as the pillar in its national security strategy, considering economic security as national security. A strong economy is the basis for expanding and asserting US power, creating resources for the US to maintain its position as a military superpower, ensuring domestic security. The fact that the US considers Russia and China as its two leading rivals today shows the huge contradictions in politics, economics and defense between these axes of relations.

Reforming the Pentagon towards simplicity but more effective and adaptive operations was also mentioned. Photo: Reuters

Specifically, the US under Trump has defined China as a "rival", instead of "partner and rival" or "cooperative partner, competitor" like previous administrations. That shows that the US is redefining this relationship from a tougher, less compromising perspective.

This also fits the more direct, realistic tone, less idealistic or flashy than the strategies under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Through the two recently announced strategies, the US has paid special attention to the competitive element, viewing international relations in the form of fierce competition between nations - states and the US needs to accept this reality, compete to surpass and win.

However, in the long term, a tough stance will have a negative impact on the US presence in the Asia-Pacific, a very unpredictable 'side effect' for the future of the US relationship with the region. Expert Sow Keat Tok at the University of Melbourne, Australia, said: "By identifying China as a rival, the US is forcing many Asian countries to choose between the two powers." That is the risk of making US partners more cautious about their decisions./.