No matter what happens with TPP, Vietnam's economy still has to change, restructuring the banking system and restructuring public investment.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is expected to create more trade and investment opportunities for Vietnam with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. However, President-elect Donald Trump recently announced that the US will abandon this Agreement.

Analyzing the impact of Mr. Trump's policies on the Vietnamese economy, Dr. Le Dang Doanh, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), said that Mr. Trump is focusing on the United States, withdrawing from commitments and measures that he has previously committed to.

Dr. Le Dang Doanh, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM).

By joining the TPP, Vietnam expects to be the leading supplier of light and medium industrial products in the Asia-Pacific region and have the opportunity to access large economies such as the US.

Dr. Le Dang Doanh noted that the US and Vietnamese economies complement each other and have little competition. Vietnam exports textiles, footwear, wooden furniture and other products to the US, so it is very difficult to find a market that can replace the US market.

Dr. Le Dang Doanh is also concerned that Vietnam has made a very high commitment to institutional reform when joining the TPP, for example, customs clearance time, currently 12 days, has been reduced to only 48 hours. Without the TPP or if the TPP process slows down, it will be difficult to promote institutional reform.

However, without TPP, with the increasing protectionist trend and efforts to block and restrict, Vietnam must have a policy for a medium-term future, integrating to dominate and diversify markets when many countries have direct and technical barriers, this is another pressure for Vietnam to rise.

Regarding the impact of the lack of TPP on the Vietnamese economy, Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long, Chairman of the Hanoi Stock Exchange, said that the structure of the economy as well as the response solutions, the Vietnamese economy mainly grows based on exports and there are also certain mutual reasons such as TPP, President Donald Trump's policies affecting the space.

“Personally, I think that Vietnam can only do much better, not necessarily worse, without TPP. The smooth implementation of TPP will bring high growth opportunities for Vietnam. Exports to the US, the Vietnamese and US economies complement each other, not compete. With the US being a guaranteed market, Vietnam's export situation is not necessarily too pessimistic,” said Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long.

On the other hand, according to Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long, there is currently another agreement that Vietnam is negotiating, which is RCEP. According to assessments, Vietnam is one of the countries that benefits the most from this agreement. In addition, Vietnam is also negotiating to sign 12 other agreements.

“That said, if the TPP fails, we still have many other agreements. Overall, from a certain perspective, with the world context, the level of brilliance in the country may not be equal but will not be less than the present,” Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long asserted.

Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long, Chairman of Hanoi Stock Exchange.

Also according to Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long, when protectionism appears, Vietnam needs to pay attention to the market and should focus more on exploiting the domestic market, which is a potential market with more than 100 million people.

It is noteworthy that Vietnam's business index has now increased by 9 places from 91 to 82. Although the competitiveness index has decreased compared to last year, the reason is that other countries have increased too strongly. Meanwhile, Vietnam's competitiveness score has still increased by 4.13 points compared to last year.

In a more specific analysis, Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long said that it is no coincidence that Vietnamese securities have a strong attraction to investors not only domestically but also internationally. The value of investment portfolios on the floor reached over 17 billion USD, an increase of more than 2 billion USD compared to 2015.

According to Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long, these are basic contents of market data that can feel the dynamism of the economy through capital mobilization. Although it is very difficult to forecast the market today because there are many changing factors, all forecast numbers currently lack scientific basis. However, there is some information that can be shared, that is, currently foreign investors still have a relatively optimistic view of the Vietnamese economy.

“So it can be understood that we can still be optimistic about the economy. No matter what happens with TPP, we still have to restructure the banking system and restructure public investment. Capital mobilization can also be done in addition to securities, including M&A activities,” Dr. Nguyen Thanh Long pointed out./.

According to VOV