US - China preparing for war at sea?

Are the US and China preparing for war?

Doubts arose after the recent encounter between US and Chinese ships in the East Sea and the most recent incident of the US sending warships through the Taiwan Strait (China).

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s remarks last week have heightened concerns about a full-blown war between the two countries. Xi told military officials in Guangdong province to “prepare for war and combat” in two potential flashpoints: Taiwan and the South China Sea.

However, experts in the US do not see the current US-China tensions as escalating into a real war. Retired US Army Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said that Washington could be at war with Beijing within 15 years as “tense relations and increased competition” between the world’s two largest economies continue to escalate.

In fact, the US and China have sent clear warnings to each other as these are long-standing issues in their bilateral relationship. Among them, the Taiwan and East Sea issues are emerging as hot spots of military conflict with direct confrontations between the two sides' forces.

Observers of US-China relations still think about the possibility of a full-scale war, but there are also opportunities for the two sides to negotiate, compromise and adjust the current competitive relationship.

“Both (the US and China) are preparing for war. However, it would be “incredibly stupid” for leaders in both countries to go to war between the US and China. Smart policies will bring a more positive direction,” said former Pentagon adviser Bonnie Glaser.

Washington's efforts to contain and counter China's economic and military rise have taken a turn under US President Donald Trump, who is imposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.

In October, US Vice President Mike Pence also affirmed to conservative advisers that issues of cyber attacks, Taiwan and freedom of navigation are big points shaping the US approach to China, in addition to a fierce trade war. According to Mr. Pence, China is increasinga complex effort aimed at President Trump and the Republicans in response to the White House's trade policies with Beijing. Accordingly, the US Vice President pledged to continue to expose this dangerous interference and influence of China.

Referring to two potential conflict hotspots, US Vice President Pence said that China has deployed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems on many islands that Beijing illegally built in the East Sea. China's militarization of the East Sea not only worries the US and the international community, but also increases tensions between countries in the region.

In late September, the US Navy ship USS Decatur entered the 12-nautical mile zone around Gaven Reef and Johnson South Reef in the Spratly Islands, which China claims as its own in the South China Sea, as part of a campaign to ensure freedom of navigation in international waters. During this mission in the South China Sea, the US warship had an unprecedented “dangerous encounter” with a Chinese warship. At that time, a Chinese Luyang destroyer approached the USS Decatur in an unsafe and unprofessional manner near Gaven Reef.

CNN"The Chinese destroyer came within 40 meters of the bow of the US ship, forcing the Decatur to change course to avoid collision," said US Pacific Fleet spokesman Charles Brown.

However, after this dangerous direct confrontation, the US still affirmed that it will continue to "send aircraft and naval ships anywhere international law allows."

Regarding the issue of Taiwan - an area over which China asserts sovereignty, the Trump administration, although not establishing official relations, has made arms sales agreements worth more than $1.7 billion to Taiwan.

Most recently, on October 22, two US warships passed through the Taiwan Strait, one of the moves affirming that the US will continue to increase its military presence in this strategic sea area despite Beijing's strong objections.

The East Sea - the thorniest issue

Looking back at past political crises between the US and China, analysts still warn that “dangerous confrontations” between the two forces could recur and that further war could be on the horizon. In 1996, then-US President Bill Clinton sent aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait after China conducted missile tests. In 2001, a US spy plane was forced to land in Hainan (China) after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet.

“There are dozens of issues that could lead to a US-China conflict. Among them, the East Sea is the thorniest issue. This is the top priority of the US in its policy in this region and in the world order that the US has built since World War II. While China is ready to challenge this world order,” the news agency said.Al Jazeeraquoted comments from maritime law expert Gregory Poling at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China has deployed more submarines, warships and other military vessels in the South China Sea since 2014. This number is even more than the number of military vessels deployed by Germany, India, Spain, the UK and Taiwan combined.

Disputes in the East Sea have increased tensions and political and military confrontations in the region. To deal with China, the US, in addition to increasing its military presence in the East Sea under the pretext of ensuring freedom of navigation, has also increased military relations with Japan, the Philippines and other partners in the region./.