Are the US and China “fighting” for a piece of the weapons pie in Southeast Asia?

Photo: Reuters

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in early 2017 highlighted a striking trend that Southeast Asia is becoming the world's largest arms-buying region, with the total value increasing by more than 6% from 2007-2011 compared to 2012-2016.

In the arms race, Southeast Asian countries are an ideal market for the world's defense contractors because they have money, the ability to use modern weapons, and are facing real pressure, recently mainly due to the situation in the East Sea, to increase purchases.

America goes on a sales tour in Southeast Asia

At the 2018 Singapore Airshow, a biennial event, the United States had the largest delegation with 170 exhibitors from defense companies. Many of the U.S. officials in the delegation came from the Department of State, Department of Defense, Department of Commerce, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

"For the US, Southeast Asia is increasingly important in the world. We are committed to contributing to development and cooperation on bilateral and multilateral levels with countries in the region. The presence of the US delegation today is a demonstration, but not the biggest part of this commitment," Ms. Tina Kaidanow, Deputy Director of the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs at the US State Department, said in a phone call with regional reporters on February 5.

The US brought to "offer" during a week of exhibitions in Singapore weapons such as C-17 Globemaster III, RQ-4 Global Hawk, E-3B Sentry, KC-135 Stratotanker, B-52 Stratofortress, P-8 Poseidon, AH-6 Little Bird, F-22 Raptor, F-16 Fighting Falcon, and F-18 Super Hornet. The US also introduced the F-35B Lightning II aircraft for the first time at the event.

Ambassador Kaidanow made no secret of her main mission in Singapore: to encourage Southeast Asian countries to buy more American weapons.

"Although one of my tasks is to try to promote US arms sales, I don't have to push too hard because the credibility of US arms is undeniable. Partners also understand this value very well," said Ms. Kaidanow.

Geopolitics also played a role in the decision, as countries needed to increase their capabilities to counter China’s expansionist intentions and actions in the South China Sea. As such, Kaidanow said one of the missions of the trip was to meet and discuss arms sales with “a number of Southeast Asian countries.” “We hope they consider buying American weapons, not just as a security issue but also as a regional balance of power.”

In the Southeast Asian market, China is competing with the US to become the leading supplier. To date, the US has sold weapons to countries in the region such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines... When asked about concerns about competition between the US and "rivals" like China in the arms export pie, Ms. Kaidanow affirmed: "No, I don't think so. We really believe that our weapons are the best in the world."

In comparison, "Chinese weapons are also very strong and the prices are competitive in the market, the purchase may include technology transfer or loans, or the approval process is not as difficult as in the US," Professor Carl Thayer, Australian Defense Force Academy, commented in a report in August 2017.

The risk of "Chinese weapons against China"

In fact, more and more Southeast Asian countries are turning to China as a “contractor” to modernize their arsenals. SIPRI data shows that China has sold weapons to seven Southeast Asian countries since 2006.

In late 2016, Malaysia and China signed a defense contract worth $278 million, the largest ever, to jointly build four coastal patrol vessels. Also in the same year, the Thai government reached an agreement to buy three submarines from China worth $1 billion, according toAsia Times.

Meanwhile, the US has sold many types of weapons to Indonesia such as light aircraft, Bell-412 helicopters, combat helicopters, F-16C fighters, missiles and anti-submarine sonar equipment... However, Professor Thayer said that Indonesia's purchase of many weapons from China "does not necessarily reflect a closer relationship with Beijing at the expense of the US".

“Indonesia just wants to diversify the origins of their weapons systems,” he said.

SheetAsia TimesAnother reason for the opportunities for Chinese contractors in the region is that countries want to use arms sales to gain an advantage over the US at the negotiating table. And Beijing is taking full advantage of the Philippines' new China-friendly policy under President Rodrigo Duterte.

By the end of 2017, China had sold thousands of rifles to the Philippine National Police (PNP). The value of a contract for 3,000 guns delivered in mid-October last year was worth $3.3 million, reflecting “friendly and cooperative relations.”

However, the tense situation in the South China Sea could also lead to a situation where the weapon hits the owner's back. When Indonesia buys a lot of weapons from China, these weapons could be used against Chinese ships if they approach the waters around Indonesia's Natuna Islands in the South China Sea.

A similar scenario could happen to Malaysia, which after completing a contract to build four ships with China could use these ships to chase away Chinese coast guard vessels that frequently approach Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.

But observers also say that China still has many trump cards ready to fight back when necessary, so they are still confident in selling weapons to countries that have attitudes toward them.

"It seems paradoxical but it still makes sense. Business always comes first. I would be more worried if China refused to sell weapons. That is a sign of opposition," the page said.Forbesquoted Mr. Fabrizio Bozzato, researcher at the Taiwan Association for Strategic Studies, China.