Russia focuses on capturing Bakhmut before Ukraine receives Western tanks

Russian forces have been advancing deeper into the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in recent days, gradually occupying each house and street corner, determined to control this target as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is gradually retreating to higher ground in the west of the city, determined to defend Bakhmut and waiting for more motivation from heavy weapons aid from the West.

Ukrainian military commanders say Bakhmut has little strategic value, but it carries huge symbolic significance as Russia seeks to expand its control in the Donbass region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once called the city "Bakhmut fortress" and vowed to defeat the Russian army there. "The more Russia loses in the war in Donbass, the less likely it is to win the entire campaign," Zelensky said on January 26. "We know what the Russians are planning. We will fight it."

Ukrainian tanks fire at Russian positions near Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine. Photo:AFP

Bakhmut has become Russia's biggest target after nearly a year of fighting. Moscow has deployed Wagner "mercenaries" to the Bakhmut battlefield and recently deployed additional reservists mobilized from last year's mobilization.

According to observers, Russia is focusing on achieving a breakthrough at Bakhmut, before Western main battle tanks are transferred to Ukraine and help Kiev strengthen its defense and counterattack capabilities.

The US and Germany announced this week that they would provide Abrams and Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Other countries such as Canada, Poland and Norway have also made similar moves.

A Ukrainian soldier in a unit operating Soviet-era T-72 tanks in Bakhmut said they desperately needed those heavy tanks. "Russian forces have taken control of many positions, so the battle is getting more difficult. We can hold the city, but only with help," he said.

Lieutenant Oleksandr Matviyenko, commander of the Ukrainian reconnaissance drone unit in Bakhmut, said that since Russia had mobilized some 300,000 reservists, they had a seemingly endless supply of manpower to throw into the field.

"We repelled one group of attackers, but then wave after wave came," Matviyenko said.

Lieutenant Matviyenko said Ukrainian forces could hold the line at Bakhmut as long as their supply lines from the west were secured. He said the bridges and supply roads from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut had not been hit by Russian fire so far.

Russia has captured the cities of Klishchiivka in the south and Soledar in the north, creating a pincer movement to encircle Bakhmut from three directions. Fighting is increasingly taking place closer to the city center, which is constantly subjected to daily Russian rocket and artillery attacks.

The center of Bakhmut is now a ghost town. Troop transport vehicles are the only vehicles on the streets. A children’s hospital in the west of the city has been converted into a hospital for soldiers, from those suffering from concussions from shelling to the severely wounded.

One hospital worker said he was getting only two hours of sleep a night earlier this week and was nearing the end of his rope. Two days later, Russia shelled the hospital, forcing doctors and patients to evacuate for the second time in a month.

Russian forces launch rockets in Ukraine in this image released by the Russian Defense Ministry on January 27. Photo:Zuma Press

In the south, the Ukrainian military said it had repelled Russian attacks on Vuhledar and several other villages. Serhiy Cherevatiy, a spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern military district, said there had been fierce fighting in Vuhledar, but Russian troops had been unable to break through Ukrainian lines.

On January 25 alone, Russia launched 148 attacks along the Zaporizhzhia frontline in the south using tanks, rockets and artillery, according to the regional military administration. The Russian Defense Ministry also said it carried out attacks in both Zaporizhzhia and Vuhledar.

"The situation on the front line, especially in the Donetsk region, is very tense," Mr. Zelensky said on January 27. "The enemy not only attacked our positions, but also deliberately destroyed the surrounding cities and villages with artillery and missiles. The Russian army does not lack means of destruction. They can only be stopped by force."

In response, Kiev’s allies are rushing to gather Leopard 2 tanks from a range of European countries, after Germany and the United States pledged to send tanks to Ukraine. The first deliveries are expected to arrive in Ukraine within the next three months.

President Zelensky has urged Western countries to speed up the delivery of tanks and training for Ukrainian soldiers to use them as Russia regains the initiative on the battlefield. Russian officials have said the tanks will “not change the course of the battle” and will only escalate the conflict.

Location of the city of Bakhmut in the Donbass region. Graphics:RYV

Stefano Sannino, Secretary General of the EU's European External Action Service, said the decision to send US and German tanks was only intended to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian pressure, rather than turning them into attackers.

Ed Arnold, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, believes that Russia is focusing its resources, both human and material, to make a big advance at Bakhmut before encountering the barriers of modern Western tanks. However, this calculation also has many potential risks.

"If this offensive effort fails, it will make Russia's defense much more difficult and they will be vulnerable if Ukraine counterattacks," Arnold said.