Russia 'takes the stand' on the North Korea issue

(Baonghean) - While the international community is focusing its attention on China in increasing pressure on North Korea to stop its missile and nuclear programs, Russia suddenly announced that it has drafted a number of practical measures to resolve issues on the Korean peninsula.

Russia's "appearance" at this time is believed to be aimed at affirming its role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, before China makes concessions to the US to move towards an agreement following the "G2" model on this issue.

"Defending" North Korea openly

According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov, the measures Russia has proposed to resolve tensions on the Korean peninsula in stages, helping the parties to dialogue with each other without preconditions.

The first steps in that “roadmap” are for the parties to restrain each other, not take provocative steps, and begin negotiations on common principles of relations such as refusing to use force or threaten to use force, and committing not to violate each other's territory.

Russia also stressed its support for China's "dual freeze" proposal, which requires North Korea to stop nuclear missile tests, while the US and South Korea abandon military exercises to create an atmosphere of peace and security in the region.

The Russian side explained that the idea running through the measures that Russia proposed is that North Korea needs to be guaranteed security so that it can confidently abandon its nuclear program, because reality shows that military moves - such as the US-South Korea military exercises or the US deploying strategic weapons to the Korean peninsula - only aggravate tensions and risk turning into armed conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin once considered sending an envoy to Pyongyang to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue. Source: WN.news

Experts commented that the statements of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulovcho showed clear support for North Korea with a much softer approach than the measures currently being applied.

While the international community is at a standstill with the North Korean problem, and the solutions chosen so far are mainly tightening sanctions, Russia has bluntly declared its opposition to unilateral sanctions aimed at punishing North Korea to "stifle" its economy.

This view was actually mentioned by Russia before when it opposed a statement of the United Nations Security Council to condemn North Korea's missile test, in which Russia emphasized: "We do not accept Pyongyang's nuclear and ballistic adventures, but this does not mean that if it violates international law, it must resort to force."

Russia's move has fueled speculation that the country wants to "take China's place" in supporting North Korea.

No "sidelining"

While China is under pressure from the US to be more "tough" with North Korea, speculation about Russia replacing China's role is not unreasonable.

Many opinions say that when China shows signs of concessions to the US, Russia needs to quickly "come forward" to restore the balance of the situation to avoid the risk of conflict, because like with China, a conflict on the Korean peninsula will certainly have a negative impact on Russia.

However, it is necessary to look deeper into Russia's move, because in many aspects, the importance of the North Korean situation for Russia is much different than for China.

For example, if a conflict breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, China will not only face a flood of refugees from North Korea but, more importantly, a fundamental change in regional strategic positions, especially with the scenario of a US-South Korean coalition presence right at China's doorstep.

For Russia, the impact of such a conflict would be much milder, as it would mean an increase in military and political conflict with the US in the Asia-Pacific region - something that has been familiar to both Russia and the US for many years in many different locations around the world.

Analysts have also commented that for Russia, the North Korean issue is less urgent than other hot spots such as Ukraine, Syria, the Middle East or NATO expansion.

Therefore, Russia's eagerness to propose a "roadmap" to resolve tensions on the Korean peninsula and its desire to discuss this "roadmap" with relevant parties is explained from another perspective, that is, Russia does not want North Korea to become a "typical case" where the US plays a prominent role in pressuring all relevant parties - including its rather "tough" partner, China - to resolve the issue according to US wishes.

That is also the reason why China’s recent concessions in increasing sanctions against North Korea have received only limited support from Russia. Moreover, the idea of ​​China and the US moving towards a “G2”-style solution to the North Korea issue is certainly not what Russia wants.

That is also the reason why recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned the possibility of sending an envoy to Pyongyang as a diplomatic shuttle effort to resolve the situation. It can be seen that Russia will not mind if China, like Russia, maintains a neutral position in discussions on the situation in North Korea. But once China tends to agree with the US, Russia will not accept being "left out" and will find every way to bring the issue back to the 6-party talks table./.

Thuy Ngoc