Russia's Withdrawal from Syria: Strategic Vision

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Russian President Putin (center) during a meeting with Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu (right) and Foreign Minister

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In September 2015, at the request of President Bashar al-Assad's government, Russia launched a military intervention in Syria. At that time, the situation in Syria was developing in an unfavorable direction for the government forces.

However, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, with the support of the Russian air force, Syrian forces have now liberated 400 densely populated areas and more than 10,000 square kilometers of territory. Therefore, Russia may conclude that the al-Assad government has been consolidated and its important political goals have been achieved.

A Russian airstrike on a terrorist base in Syria - Photo: AFP

In addition, with its military intervention that changed the situation on the Syrian battlefield, Russia has demonstrated its position and shown its strength to the world.

US President Barack Obama must change his view on Russia's military potential. Last February, Mr. Obama made the assessment that "the Russian army is the second strongest in the world".

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According to estimates, the cost of Russia's military intervention in Syria is up to 4 million USD/day. Meanwhile, the Russian economy is facing many difficulties due to Western sanctions and falling oil prices.

With the cost of the war in Syria placing a significant burden on the Russian budget, the move to withdraw troops when the goal has been achieved is completely reasonable, even mandatory.

In the long term, with the US and Western military intervention in Syria in the role of fighting the self-proclaimed terrorist organization (IS), Russia certainly cannot easily help the Assad government gain full control of Syrian territory.

Russian soldiers at Latakia air base. Photo: RT

Domestically, in 2014, with the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, Mr. Putin's reputation increased among the people in the country, despite Western sanctions that caused the Russian economy to suffer.

But currently, Russian people are facing financial worries in an economic context that shows no significant signs of positive change.

Surely, they do not want the country to continue pouring money into a war outside its borders, because Syria is different from Crimea - it is not bound to Russia by direct benefits in terms of people's awareness and influence.

Therefore, by declaring the completion of the goal in Syria and withdrawing troops, President Putin may be able to strengthen the support of the people in the country.

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In fact, despite announcing its withdrawal, Russia still maintains a limited military presence in Syria. Therefore, it can be said that Russia's withdrawal is a strategic calculation and not necessarily "giving up" Syria.

Russia could well return if the West and opposition forces violate the ceasefire, threatening the government of its ally al-Assad. By withdrawing its troops, Russia simultaneously achieved three significant advances:

First, Russia demonstrated to the world that it has goodwill to promote the peace process in Syria after being a co-guarantor of the ceasefire.

US Secretary of State John Kerry, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and UN special envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura announce the results of peace talks in Munich. Photo: AP

Second, by withdrawing at this time, Russia has put the US in a difficult position. Since the US is also a guarantor of the ceasefire in Syria, there will be no legitimate reason to continue supporting the rebels to intensify their attacks on the al-Assad regime. Russia also accidentally makes the US and its coalition become "lost" in the mission of fighting IS in Syria.

Ultimately, this Russian withdrawal could spur UN-sponsored talks in Geneva to end the Syrian crisis, as well as a cessation of hostilities agreement currently in place in the country.

Obviously, Russia's sudden announcement to withdraw most of its military equipment and combat forces from Syria is a strategic move.

Analysts say that Russia's troop withdrawal was carried out "on a winning position" and with the aim of taking one step back and taking many steps forward, because Russia has not only completed helping its allies but also consolidated its position and raised its voice on the chessboard of the Middle East region./.

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