Are Russia and Türkiye facing off in Libya?

Forgetting Türkiye is a big mistakegeopolitical

When the Russians, led by President Medvedev, agreed at the United Nations Security Council to let NATO destroy Libya, Türkiye tied its interests to this country, specifically initially to the Government of National Unity (GNA) recognized by the United Nations (GNA is a transitional government, after 2 years it will lose its legal right to hold a general election for unity).

Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj's GNA is based in the capital Tripoli, which controls a small area in western Libya. Meanwhile, its parliament and armed wing, the Libyan National Army (LNA), are based in Tobruk, a port city on Libya's eastern coast, led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar.

LNA forces of Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Photo: Internet

The two sides confronted each other and culminated on April 4, 2019, when Marshal Haftar launched an attack on Tripoli. The campaign developed smoothly but was forced to stop because the Misrata Islamist forces and mainly Türkiye provided timely weapons and vehicles to the GNA, pushing the LNA troops out of the outer perimeter of Tripoli.

With the goal of eliminating the GNA, Marshal Haftar launched a second campaign against Tripoli in September 2019. With the support of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and especially the main force of about 2,000 Russian PMCs paid by Saudi Arabia and commanded by FBS Russia, he was about to win the final victory...

Faced with this situation, Türkiye once again publicly expressed its position, declaring that it would support the GNA, ready to send its army to Libya if the GNA requested. At the same time, Türkiye sent more than 2,000 "proxy" soldiers from Idlib - Syria and hundreds of tons of military vehicles to Libya to fight against the LNA.

At this point, the question arises: What are Türkiye's economic and military interests in Libya that make them defy the US, Russia and Syria to jump into Libya?

The first:First of all, as mentioned above, when Libya disintegrated, and before that when Iran was sanctioned by the US, Türkiye's oil imports from Iran were halted. In December 2018, Türkiye was forced to look elsewhere for oil imports, Libya being the most logical choice due to price and proximity, despite the violence there. Misrata rebels - allied with the Fajr Libya militia that controls Libya's largest free trade port, Sirte, have organized oil exports from Zawiya to Italy and Türkiye, at discounted prices.

Libya's largest free trade port is Sirte. Photo: Internet

Note that both the West and East sides are fighting each other but their income is largely regulated by the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC). The NOC is tasked with enforcing the UN arms embargo by disbursing money for civilian use only.

Türkiye’s access to Libyan oil hit a snag in early June 2018. Türkiye objected to LNA oil deals without NOC oversight. The NLA offensive in April 2019 led to airstrikes in Misrata and the west, affecting Turkish oil imports.

The fall of the main commercial port of Sirte to the LNA, along with the NLA’s attack on the NOC offices and the Zawiya oil refinery in late 2019, dealt a serious blow to Türkiye’s oil ambitions in Libya. And before January 19, 2020, to put pressure on the Berlin Conference on Libya, Marshal Haftar ordered a halt to all Libyan oil exports.

President Erdogan (left) met with President Putin on October 22, 2019. Photo: AP

Monday:If that is all, it would be too disrespectful of Turkish President Erdogan's intentions and strategic vision in the geopolitical game in the Middle East.

On November 27, 2019, Turkish President Erdogan signed a Security and Economic Agreement with GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj, which was approved by the Turkish Parliament a few days later. There are two main points:

One is,The first security issue is military cooperation, in which the GNA is expected to receive military equipment and weapons from Erdogan, the help of military experts and even troops when requested.

Second,dedicated to limiting maritime jurisdiction. Ankara and Tripoli will defend their rights in Libya’s coastal waters despite the majority of it being controlled by the LNA. Accordingly, a Turkish EEZ has emerged in the Eastern Mediterranean as a knife cutting off the cherished Israel-Greece-Cyprus gas pipeline.

This agreement with the GNA has created a map below that shows Türkiye’s expansion and hegemony. Accordingly, inside the yellow line is Turkey’s EEZ. Any pipeline that passes through the agreed EEZ area of ​​Turkey and the GNA must be approved by Ankara…

Map of the EEZ agreement area between Türkiye and GNA. Photo: Internet

Of course, this agreement between Türkiye and the GNA was strongly opposed by Egypt, Greece, Israel and the EU. But by signing this agreement, Turkish President Erdogan has made it clear to the world that he is ready to intervene in the internal conflict in Libya and restore order in the country. Just as Russia protects the Assad regime, Türkiye protects the GNA!

There has been a clash between the Turkish Navy, Israel and the units that enforce the protection of the drilling rig in the Mediterranean area… Türkiye’s geopolitical big game really started the “drill war” to control resources in the Mediterranean starting from Libya…

But, unfortunately Türkiye is not Russia!

Is the Russian "bear" putting its foot in Libya?

The reality is that Libya is not more important to Russia than Syria, but it is impossible not to “stick its foot” in Libya if it wants to control the Mediterranean. The Mediterranean is at the center of a very large, multifaceted geostrategic game around Syria.

If the East and Southwest coasts of the Mediterranean already have a strong presence of Russian military bases, Russia will completely control the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal is closed for some reason, the only closest and safest shipping route from Africa, the Middle East, and Asia to Europe is the North Sea route managed by Russia.

Therefore, the important issue is to occupy the southwestern Mediterranean coast, but to have the southwestern Mediterranean coast, that is, Russia must create military bases in the coastal city of Benghazi and the important deep port of Tobruk like Khmeimim and Tartus in Syria... then the inevitable destination is Libya.

It should be noted that, since Russia has not publicly appeared in Libya as in Syria, Russia's military presence (PMC) in this country is explained as only being linked to the economic activities of Russian state corporations targeting oil and gas, as well as the construction of railways... But note that, as early as 2018, there were two locations, the coastal city of Benghazi and the deep port of Tobruk, protected by Russian PMC, which means that the Russians have completed step one, the tactic of "capturing the bridgehead" for the "landing operation" on the southwest coast of the Mediterranean.

In Libya, a funny but true story, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov supports GNA, while Russian Defense Minister Shoigu supports Marshal Haftar LNA!!! One side uses words, the other side uses "fists" and Western military experts believe that it is Shoigu's "fists" that are decisive in helping Marshal Haftar force Tripoli to count down the time to collapse.

Faced with that situation, Türkiye announced that it would intervene and in fact intervened by sending mercenaries and large landing ships carrying hundreds of tons of military vehicles to Tripoli to rescue the GNA...

A Turkish heavy landing ship with hundreds of tons of military equipment docked at Tripoli port on January 28 despite the UN embargo. Photo: Internet

At this point, no one can help but think of the prospect of a clash between the Russian PMC and the Turkish army in Libya, which means that Russia and Türkiye will fight each other in both Syria and Libya. The US and NATO are excited when Russia and Türkiye, “whose friendship is broken,” will jump at each other…

Will this happen? Looking at Libya is not enough, it does not cover the whole Middle East playground, but at least look at the war situation in Syria when the Dawn in Idlib campaign is intense and fierce...