Russia and China enter the “race” for influence with North Korea
The recent warming of relations between North Korea and its wartime enemy, the United States, or the reconciliation with its southern neighbor, South Korea, is not just a revolution, a major change is taking place on the Korean Peninsula.
That has led countries to start a “race” for influence with North Korea, including China and Russia.
|
| Countries have begun a “race” for influence with North Korea, including China and Russia. Photo: News Number |
Despite somewhat strained relations in recent years, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has visited China three times in the past three months, meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing from June 19-20. Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in is in Russia and will meet with President Vladimir Putin on June 22.
John Ross, a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Renmin University in China, analyzed with Sputnik the geopolitical motives behind the diplomatic contacts between these neighboring countries.
China-North Korea Relations
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s focus now is to improve and boost his country’s domestic economy, which could be a win-win scenario for both North Korea and China, which is in the process of revolutionizing trade in Asia with its Belt and Road Initiative.
“There’s a very strong historical connection between Korea and China that has a lot to do with it,” Ross explained. Trapped in a difficult position, Korea had to fight for independence against China and Japan for centuries.
“North Korea’s official ideology is Juche (self-reliance), but in reality, North Korea has a lot in common with China, and that certainly gives Pyongyang a mechanism for discussion that goes beyond a simple state-to-state relationship with Beijing. The biggest difference, of course, is economic policy,” Ross said.
“Frankly, China has had a successful economic policy and North Korea has not,” Mr. Ross added.
Mr. Ross said that China would be pleased if North Korea had similar economic policies to its own, which means increasing the private sector as well as international trade relations.
Russia shifts diplomatic focus
Before leaving for Russia, on June 20, South Korean President Moon Jae-in proposed a gas pipeline project from Russia through North Korea to South Korea, and even to Japan after diplomatic relations with North Korea improved. He also emphasized that restoring the inter-Korean railway and connecting it to the Trans-Siberian Railway would facilitate land transport from South Korea to Europe. This would bring great economic benefits to South Korea and Russia.
Moon Jae-in met with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on June 21 and will meet with President Putin on June 22. Meanwhile, Putin also invited leader Kim Jong-un to Moscow, following the success of the US-North Korea Summit on June 12 in Singapore.
According to Mr. Ross, Russia has an interest in shifting its diplomatic relations in the region. “While North Korea’s main border is with China, it also has a border with Russia. And frankly, few people believe that the United States will have much influence over North Korea, a vision that some in the United States are pushing. But if there is a reunification of the Korean Peninsula, then South Korea will essentially be the country with influence over North Korea.
Analyzing Russia's potential geopolitical interests, Mr. Ross said: "I cannot believe that Russia will let the United States go to North Korea, which borders Russia to the east."
He also said that South Korea will not split with the US, because the US is still ensuring the country's security. South Korea's economic interests are now more important to China than to the US. If North Korea can move towards "more sensitive" policies and open up to foreign investors, South Korea will also benefit./.
