The temporary ceasefire agreement for Syria that took effect last week is evidence that Russia's military intervention strategy in the Middle Eastern country is working, opening up opportunities to draw Washington closer to Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: AFP

Russia's plan for a ceasefire in Syria has so far largely worked. Yacoub el-Hillo, the UN humanitarian coordinator in Syria, even commented that the Russia-US "cessation of hostilities" agreement "is the best chance the Syrian people have had in the past five years to move towards peace and stability," according to the NZ Herald. The ceasefire may not bring democracy or full unity to Syria, but it is still an important stepping stone to help the country gradually escape war and violence.

Reviving Syria as it was before may be an impossible task, but at least we will not have to witness the daily killings if the temporary truce turns into a permanent ceasefire, observer Gwynne Dyer said.

When Russia began planning its military intervention in Syria five months ago, no one expected a ceasefire, even a temporary one. Instead, most people were imagining a bleak future with the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the Islamic State (IS) dominating Syria.

According to Dyer, through military campaigns, Russia has made a great contribution to closing the "collapse" scenario for Syria. This is an immediate achievement that Russian President Vladimir Putin has achieved. IS now finds it difficult to win a decisive victory against the Syrian army when behind this force there is always strong support from the Russian air force. IS's ambition to expand to the border areas with Lebanon and Jordan is therefore also stopped.

Still, Russian strategists have no intention of sustaining a costly and endless military campaign in Syria. What they need is an “exit strategy,” and they have that crucial trump card, Dyer stressed.

Russia's strategy is broken down into steps, including protecting President Assad's government, cutting off the transportation of weapons and fighters to Syrian rebel groups through Turkey, and then dividing the links between Muslim and non-Muslim rebels.

Russia’s stated goal directly challenges the strategy of the US-led coalition, which has been bombing IS for the past two years. The US strategy aims to overthrow the Assad regime and eradicate IS without any ground troops, except for Syrian Kurdish militias, a task that is considered impossible. Even US State Department and Pentagon officials see this path as handing Syria over to radical Islamists.

Desolation in the strategic city of Aleppo, Syria. Photo: CNN

Dyer believes that Russia’s military campaign in Syria has prevented this scenario by providing effective support to the government army to repel the advance of IS, despite the US’s frequent accusations that Russia “bombed the wrong target.” Whether mistaken or not, Moscow’s air support has indeed created favorable conditions for the government army to regain balance, while pushing the rebels out of several key Syrian cities.

The Syrian army, working with Kurdish militias, also cut off a vital supply line to the rebels from Türkiye last month.

Moscow has only one unfinished goal: to sever the links between the Islamist and non-Islamist rebel groups fighting in Syria. To do that, Russia needs to find a way to establish a ceasefire between the Syrian government and the non-Islamist rebels.

The plan is underway and the fighters the US calls “moderate” rebels appear to be willing to cooperate, according to Dyer.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on March 2 that the number of local armed groups that have agreed to join the "cessation of hostilities" agreement has increased to 38.

With the US officially accepting the new definition of “good and bad” rebels fighting in Syria, the final step in Russia’s “divide and rule” strategy is gradually being completed as all the major powers are on the same side, Dyer emphasized.

In the future, if the temporary “cessation of hostilities” agreement is converted into a permanent ceasefire, the hostile forces in Syria will then be reduced to three groups: IS, al-Nusra Front and its ally Ahrar al-Sham. In that context, if the US can accept the fact that the Assad regime will not collapse and step in to support it, the Syrian civil war will now turn into a war against radical Islam. As a result, Russia and the US will have more opportunities to build relations and move closer together, Mr. Dyer commented.

According to VNE