The risk of a US-Russia Cold War

(Baonghean) - The relationship between the US and Russia - the two superpowers possessing the largest nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles - has "heated up" the political atmosphere of the entire planet and is the focus of international public opinion.

Abyss of trust

It would be impossible to understand the current US-Russia relationship without recalling the “black marks” in history between the two leading military powers. From the end of 1946 to December 1991, the US and the Soviet Union were always in a Cold War confrontation. After the Soviet Union collapsed (December 1991), the Russian Federation took over the international legal status and scientific and military power.

But in the period 1996-2004, the US admitted most of the Eastern European countries and 3 Baltic countries into NATO. The US established a missile defense system in Eastern European countries since 2011 and deployed heavy weapons in the 3 Baltic countries and Eastern European countries since 2014. In 1989-1990, the US government pledged not to admit Eastern European and Baltic countries into the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), not to establish military bases, and not to deploy weapons in Eastern European and Baltic countries.

The US has been pressuring Russia, narrowing Russia's strategic space, NATO troops and weapons have been approaching Russia's northwestern and southwestern borders. The Russian people in general, and the Russian elite in particular, feel betrayed and deceived by the US, and that the US is trying to weaken and disintegrate Russia.

Superpower relations with the Ukraine crisis and the Syrian conflict

The Ukraine crisis broke out from November 2013 to February 2014. In order to save the situation, at noon on February 21, 2014, Ukrainian President Yanukovych signed an agreement with the opposition forces, receiving the support of 28 EU countries.

Russian President Putin and US President Obama. Photo: Internet.

On the same day, US President Obama called Russian President Putin to ask Russia to cooperate with the US to help the parties involved implement the agreement because that is the only way to save Ukraine from the crisis. 14 hours later, the US supported and directed the opposition forces to convene the Ukrainian parliament to oust President Yanukovych.

The Ukrainian Constitution stipulates that the President must have 75% or more of the deputies agree to be removed from office. At the noon meeting on February 22, 2014, directed by the US, only 71.8% of the National Assembly deputies agreed, which means they did not meet the minimum requirements, yet President Yanukovych was still removed from office?! Russia believes that they were deceived by the US.

Regarding the war in Syria, Russia and the US had a hard time reaching a ceasefire agreement that took effect on September 12. However, five days later, the US-led coalition air force launched an airstrike on a military unit of the al Assad government, killing more than 80 officers and soldiers. With this action, the US tore up the agreement with Russia.

Of course, Russia and the al Assad regime will not unilaterally implement the agreement. On September 19, al Assad’s army, backed by Russia, launched a fierce attack on the strategic city of Aleppo; the Russian air force also focused on bombing terrorist forces on the Aleppo front, and a spiral of intense violence erupted in this strategic city. Once again, Russia felt deceived by the United States.

“We are coming to a conclusion that will truly horrify the world: the White House is protecting ISIS. There is no doubt about it now,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on September 17. Russia accused the United States of supporting and controlling “an international terrorist coalition” through its support for rebel groups fighting the Russian-backed al Assad regime.

Russia - US confrontation

Russia and the United States have completely lost trust in each other. When there is no longer a basis for dialogue, they “tit for tat”. On October 3, Russian President Putin announced the suspension of the agreement to destroy 34 tons of excess plutonium (which can make 17,000 nuclear warheads) signed with the United States in 2010. A few hours later, the United States announced the suspension of negotiations with Russia on finding a political solution to end the bloody conflict that has lasted more than 5 years in Syria.

On October 4, Russia transferred the modern S-300VM missile system to the Tartous naval base to protect the military base and Russian officers and soldiers fighting in Syria. With two modern S-300VM and S-400 missile systems deployed on Syrian territory, Russia can shoot down all aircraft of the US and its allies to protect Russian forces and the al Assad government.

On October 7, the US accused Russian hackers of attacking US computer networks and interfering in the presidential election. Russia denied the accusations because the US had not provided evidence. On October 8 and 9, at the United Nations Security Council, there was a fierce war of words between the US and Russia over the impasse in finding a political solution to the conflict in Syria.

Robert Pary, a famous international political commentator for the AP news agency and the American magazine "Newsweek", affirmed: "The US anti-Russian media campaign is getting out of control and could even push the world to the brink of nuclear war."

For nearly a month now, the giant American media system has published thousands of extremely harsh anti-Russian articles, blaming Russia for all the troubles and conflicts in the world today; there are even dozens of commentaries calling for the US to launch a preemptive nuclear strike against Russia!

Cold War - Hot War?

Russia and the US consider each other as strategic rivals, they are in conflict with each other in terms of global and regional interests. But Russia needs the US and the US also needs Russia in solving urgent problems of the contemporary world: Disarmament and control of weapons of mass destruction; Resolving hot spots and conflicts (Ukraine, Syria...); Fighting terrorism,... It can be said that the US and Russia are on the verge of a Cold War, but not really in a state of Cold War.

What about the risk of a Hot War - a total nuclear war that would destroy billions of people - World War III? In December 2015, when asked if a nuclear war between the US and Russia was possible, Russian President Putin replied: “In any case, in the current international situation, it would be a catastrophe for the entire planet. And I would like to hope very much that there will not be people with such crazy thoughts on this Earth who want to use nuclear weapons.”

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has worsened Russia-US relations since the Cold War. Photo: Reuters.

Perhaps, all sane people in the world think like President Putin. If a Hot War breaks out, no one will win, everyone will lose. The number of nuclear warheads and weapons delivery vehicles of the US and Russia today is capable of wiping out all life on the planet 20 times. In the face of a catastrophe that destroys humanity, all hawks and warmongers must hesitate and restrain themselves.

The issue of US-Russia relations is an important part, depending on the results of the US presidential election. Forecasting the development of US-Russia relations from now until January 20, 2017, there are two possibilities. First, even without a resolution from the United Nations Security Council, the US brazenly establishes a no-fly zone over Syria and conducts carpet bombing, using cruise missiles to destroy military forces and eliminate the government of President Bashar al Assad. Second, the US and its allies provide missiles and modern air defense weapons to the opposition forces to shoot down al Assad's military planes and Russian planes.

In both cases, Russia will use the S.300VM and S-400 air defense missile systems to counter and counterattack US military actions. Thus, the possibility of a direct military conflict between the US and Russia on the Syrian battlefield cannot be ruled out. However, both the White House and the Kremlin will probably restrain themselves from leading to World War III, because that is a scenario that no one wants.

Associate Professor, PhD, Major GeneralLe Van Cuong

(Former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security)