The risk of a US-Russia Cold War.

(Baonghean) - The relationship between the US and Russia - two superpowers possessing the largest nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles - is heating up the political atmosphere across the planet and is the focus of international public opinion.

The Abyss of Trust

It is impossible to understand the current US-Russia relationship without recalling the "dark spots" in the history between these two leading military powers. From late 1946 to December 1991, the US and the Soviet Union were constantly in a Cold War confrontation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union (December 1991), the Russian Federation took over international legal status and scientific and military power.

However, between 1996 and 2004, the US admitted most Eastern European countries and the three Baltic states into NATO. The US established missile defense systems in Eastern European countries starting in 2011 and deployed heavy weapons in the three Baltic states and other Eastern European countries starting in 2014. In 1989-1990, the US administration had pledged not to admit Eastern European and Baltic countries into the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and not to establish military bases or deploy weapons in these countries.

The US has pressured Russia, narrowing its strategic space, with NATO troops and weapons positioned close to Russia's northwestern and southwestern borders. The Russian people in general, and the Russian elite in particular, feel betrayed and deceived by the US, and believe the US is trying to weaken and dismantle Russia.

Superpower relations with the Ukraine crisis and the Syrian conflict.

The Ukrainian crisis erupted from November 2013 to February 2014. In an attempt to salvage the situation, at noon on February 21, 2014, Ukrainian President Yanukovych signed an agreement with the opposition forces, receiving the support of 28 EU countries.

Russian President Putin and US President Obama. Photo: Internet.

On the same day, US President Obama spoke by phone with Russian President Putin, urging Russia to cooperate with the US in helping the parties involved implement the agreement, as it was the only way to save Ukraine from the crisis. Fourteen hours later, the US backed and directed opposition forces to convene the Ukrainian Parliament to oust President Yanukovych.

The Ukrainian constitution stipulates that a president can only be impeached if 75% or more of the deputies agree. The meeting on the afternoon of February 22, 2014, directed by the US, only had 71.8% of the Knesset deputies agreeing, which was not the minimum requirement, yet President Yanukovych was still impeached?! Russia claims they were deceived by the US.

Regarding the war in Syria, Russia and the US finally reached a ceasefire agreement that took effect on September 12th. However, five days later, the US-led coalition air force launched an airstrike on a unit of the al-Assad regime's army, killing more than 80 officers and soldiers. With this action, the US broke the agreement with Russia.

Of course, Russia and the al-Assad regime would not unilaterally implement the agreement. On September 19, al-Assad's army, backed by Russia, launched a fierce attack on the strategic city of Aleppo; the Russian air force also concentrated its airstrikes on terrorist forces on the Aleppo front, and a violent spiral erupted in the strategic city. Once again, Russia felt deceived by the United States.

On September 17, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: “We are approaching a conclusion that is truly horrifying to the whole world, which is that the White House is protecting ISIS. There is now no doubt about that.” Russia accuses the US of supporting and controlling “an international terrorist alliance” by supporting rebel groups fighting against the Russian-backed al Assad regime.

Russia and the US clash.

Russia and the US have completely lost trust in each other. With no basis for dialogue, they resorted to tit-for-tat actions. On October 3rd, Russian President Putin announced the suspension of the 2010 agreement with the US to destroy 34 tons of surplus plutonium (enough to make 17,000 nuclear warheads). Hours later, the US announced a temporary halt to negotiations with Russia on finding a political solution to end the bloody conflict in Syria, which has lasted more than five years.

On October 4th, Russia transferred the advanced S-300VM missile system to the Tartous naval base to protect the military base and Russian officers and soldiers fighting in Syria. With the two advanced S-300VM and S-400 missile systems deployed on Syrian territory, Russia can shoot down any aircraft of the US and its allies to protect Russian forces and the al-Assad regime.

On October 7th, the US accused Russian hackers of attacking US computer networks and interfering in the presidential election. Russia refuted the accusations, stating that the US had not provided any evidence. On October 8th and 9th, a heated exchange of words took place at the UN Security Council between the US and Russia regarding the deadlock in finding a political solution to the conflict in Syria.

Robert Pary, a prominent international political commentator for the Associated Press and Newsweek magazine, asserted: "The US anti-Russia media campaign is spiraling out of control and could even push the world to the brink of nuclear war."

For nearly a month now, the massive American media system has been publishing thousands of extremely harsh anti-Russian articles, holding Russia responsible for all the troubles and conflicts in the world today; there are even dozens of commentaries calling for the US to launch a preemptive nuclear attack on Russia!

Cold War vs. Hot War?

Russia and the United States view each other as strategic rivals, clashing over global and regional interests. However, Russia needs the US, and the US also needs Russia, in addressing pressing contemporary global issues: disarmament and control of weapons of mass destruction; resolving hotspots and conflicts (Ukraine, Syria, etc.); and combating terrorism. It could be said that the US and Russia are on the brink of a new Cold War, but are not yet fully in a state of Cold War.

So what about the risk of a Hot War – a total nuclear war that would destroy billions of people – World War III? In December 2015, when asked whether a nuclear war between the US and Russia was possible, Russian President Putin replied: “In any case, in the current international context, it would be a catastrophe for the entire planet. And I very much hope that there are no people on Earth with such insane thoughts, people who want to use nuclear weapons.”

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has further worsened Russia-US relations since the end of the Cold War. Photo: Reuters.

Perhaps all sensible people in the world share President Putin's view. If a hot war were to break out, no one would win; everyone would lose. The number of nuclear warheads and weapons delivery systems currently possessed by the US and Russia is capable of wiping out all life on the planet 20 times over. Faced with a catastrophe that would destroy humanity, every hawk and warmonger would have to think twice and exercise restraint.

The future of US-Russia relations is a crucial factor, depending on the outcome of the US presidential election. Two possibilities can be predicted for the development of US-Russia relations between now and January 20, 2017. First, even without a UN Security Council resolution, the US could brazenly establish a no-fly zone over Syria and conduct carpet bombing, using cruise missiles to destroy military forces and remove the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Second, the US and its allies could supply modern missiles and anti-aircraft weapons to opposition forces to shoot down aircraft belonging to al-Assad's army and Russian aircraft.

In both of the above scenarios, Russia would use its S-300VM and S-400 air defense missile systems to counter and retaliate against US military actions. Thus, the possibility of direct military conflict between the US and Russia in the Syrian battlefield cannot be ruled out. However, both the White House and the Kremlin will likely exercise restraint to avoid a third world war, as that is a scenario nobody wants.

Associate Professor, Doctor of Science, Major GeneralLe Van Cuong

(Former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security)