Hotspots that could spark military conflict in 2018

The world has just experienced a turbulent 2017, but there were no major armed conflicts between the great powers. Some regions such as Syria and Iraq have gradually cooled down after the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) was defeated. However, tensions are becoming fierce in many hot spots, raising concerns about the risk of large-scale war, according toNational Interest.

Chosen

The nuclear and missile crisis on the Korean Peninsula has made it the world’s top potential flashpoint for military conflict. North Korea’s ballistic missile program success and the Trump administration’s lack of diplomatic experience are putting the world in an extremely dangerous situation.

Pyongyang’s repeated nuclear and missile tests show that the country has no intention of bowing to pressure from Washington. On the contrary, the US is showing confusion in its diplomatic response as statements from senior officials often contradict each other.

The issue is further complicated by the fact that both countries have incentives to launch a preemptive strike. Washington sees Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs as a threat that must be eliminated, while North Korea seeks to prevent this scenario from happening.

South Korea and North Korea are working to calm the situation by restoring a hotline between the two countries, but the situation could escalate at any time if Pyongyang launches another missile or nuclear test next year. The current tensions could lead to a miscalculation by both North Korea and the United States that could spark a major and devastating war in East Asia.

Taiwan

Li Kexin, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, threatened in early December 2017 that China would use force to unify Taiwan if US warships docked at Kaohsiung. In 2005, China passed the Anti-Secession Act, which denied Taiwan's independence and outlined a solution for Beijing to reclaim the island.

The tough statements suggest that Beijing believes the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait is tilting in its favor, a view that raises the risk of military conflict as the Chinese military steps up its activities in the East China Sea and surrounding areas.

According to Taiwan's Defense Ministry, the Chinese air force has conducted 16 drills near the island this year, including an encirclement exercise in December. The agency warned that China's military buildup is Taiwan's biggest security threat.

China regards Taiwan as its inalienable territory and frequently calls it the most sensitive and important issue between Beijing and Washington. Meanwhile, the US has responded with a relatively calm attitude, both condemning China's military buildup and announcing large arms sales to Taiwan.

China's tough statement could increase US-China conflicts, raising the risk of a large-scale conflict breaking out across the Taiwan Strait, especially with an unpredictable person like US President Donald Trump.

Mr Trump has always viewed China as a threat to the US economy, a country that previous US presidents have shown too much humility towards. Mr Trump called Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen shortly after his election, despite warnings from his predecessor and breaking decades of established diplomatic norms.

If both sides do not exercise restraint, a large-scale conflict could erupt across the Taiwan Strait, with serious consequences for all involved.

Middle East

The Middle East is always fraught with potential for conflict between major powers. As the Syrian civil war draws to a close, all eyes are on the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh seems to be the one always provocative, at the same time seeing Tehran as the source of instability in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Iran is seeking to expand its influence in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere.

After conceding victory on the battlefield to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the Trump administration began to turn to Iran, as evident by giving Saudi Arabia the green light to intervene militarily in Yemen and elsewhere in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia’s public buildup of a military and diplomatic coalition against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, as Russia reasserts its position in the region, risks leading to conflict between major powers next year.

The world situation remains unstable, with the risk of leading to global conflict. The Trump administration's lack of a clear diplomatic approach only makes the situation more dangerous. Washington will need a more consistent diplomatic approach to minimize the risk of these crises, analyst Robert Farley said.