Foreign policy challenges are causing the newly elected US president to hesitate.
Biden intends to extend the New START Treaty while still wanting to punish Moscow for cyberattacks. He also plans to bring the U.S. back to the nuclear deal but wants to limit Iran's missile program.
The new administration of President-elect Joe Biden will quickly resume negotiations on a crucial nuclear arms treaty with Russia, but will also seek to hold the Russian president accountable for cyberattacks targeting U.S. government networks that Washington accuses Moscow of carrying out.
In an interview with CNN, Jake Sullivan, President-elect Biden's choice to be national security advisor in the upcoming administration, also stated that as soon as Iran returns to compliance with the Iran nuclear deal – an agreement he helped negotiate under President Barack Obama – there will be negotiations immediately afterward regarding the country's missile capabilities.
"In those broad-based negotiations, we were able to secure limitations on Iran's ballistic missile technology. That's what we intend to pursue through diplomacy," Sullivan said.
Mr. Sullivan did not mention that the missile issue was not addressed in the previously signed nuclear agreement because Iran refused to commit to limiting missile development and testing. To narrow the disagreement, the United Nations adopted a resolution calling on Iran to exercise restraint, while Tehran said the resolution was not binding and ignored it.
Extending the New START treaty – a test in the first days of power.
Sullivan's statements suggest that the new US administration will quickly address the two complex issues of arms control, even as Biden also has to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic shock it has caused domestically.
However, the first issue – extending the New START Treaty – will be more complicated because Biden has stated he will hold Russia accountable for the cyberattacks targeting more than 250 US government and private networks.
Biden said that once authorities officially confirm who is responsible for the attack, "the United States will respond, possibly with a proportionate response."
This means the U.S. will continue to sanction Russia while ensuring the New START treaty does not collapse and lead to a new arms race.
Sullivan also suggested that arms control is one of the few areas where Russia and the new US administration can cooperate. Extending the treaty – a move that doesn't require Senate approval – would be the first test of whether this cooperation is viable.
President Donald Trump, who has withdrawn the United States from several other treaties with Russia over the past four years, initially asserted that China must also be a party to the agreement, otherwise the U.S. would not renew it when it expires on February 5th.
Trump subsequently stopped mentioning this request. However, in the weeks leading up to the 2020 presidential election, negotiations to extend the agreement lost momentum, possibly due to new demands from the US side, or because Russia perceived that Trump was likely to lose the election.
"We will have to find a way to extend the treaty for the benefit of the United States," Sullivan said.
Officials in the transition team said there have been no discussions between Biden's representatives and Russia regarding the treaty.
The dialogues held four years ago betweenRussian Ambassador to the United StatesAnd Michael Flynn – Trump's first national security adviser – led investigations into his administration's dealings with Russia.
Biden's team said they were being very cautious and avoiding contact with foreign officials on any important matters until noon on January 20th – the time when Biden was sworn in and officially became the 46th President of the United States.
The US wants to return to the nuclear agreement; will Iran accept?
The idea of pursuing a separate agreement with Iran on the missile issue is not new, but the Trump administration has made no moves on this matter since withdrawing the U.S. from the nuclear deal in mid-2018.
In a May 2020 article in Foreign Policy, Sullivan and Daniel Benaim—who served as Joe Biden's Middle East advisor when he was Vice President—suggested that the United States under a new president “would immediately re-establish diplomatic channels on the nuclear issue with Iran and salvage the 2015 agreement for as long as possible.” The U.S. would then work with allies and Iran to “negotiate a follow-up agreement.”
Any attempt to revive the Iran nuclear deal would inevitably spark controversy with Republicans, who argue that Biden entered into a bad deal that was not in America's best interest. However, the Iran nuclear deal is an executive agreement. President Trump canceled it with an executive order, and its restoration could also be done by an executive order.
The crucial question is whether Iran is willing to return to the old agreement. In Iran, many believe the U.S. never intended for Tehran to benefit economically. Meanwhile, Iran is also preparing for a presidential election, in which an Air Force official from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), known for its hardline stance against the U.S., is among the leading candidates.
Returning to the limitations of the existing agreement, without receiving any “compensation” from the US for Trump’s decision to reimpose sanctions, would likely be politically unfeasible ahead of the elections in Iran.
When asked why the 2015 agreement failed to ease tensions or create a new future.new partnerships with IranSullivan rejected the idea that the Obama administration had expected too much beyond simply limiting Iran's nuclear program.
However, that was Obama's gamble in 2015, that if the nuclear issue was no longer in contention and Iran had a new leader, then a broader agreement could be reached.
"Clearly, that didn't happen," Sullivan said.
