How does the West's increased arms support affect the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
As Russia and Ukraine prepare for a major conflict in Donbass, the West has made a notable move to increase the shipment of heavy weapons to Kiev while Moscow warns that this could have unpredictable consequences.
The Great Battle in Donbass
The race to prepare for battle in Donbass is still going on with Russia concentrating its forces and moving military vehicles to eastern Ukraine while the US and its allies increase the transfer of weapons to the Ukrainian army.
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| Ukrainian tanks in the Lugansk region on February 26. Photo: AFP |
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were at a dead end and that Moscow's current focus was on "liberating" the entire Donbass, with one-third of the region currently under the control of Russian-backed separatists. Some observers predicted that Mariupol - the third largest city in the Donbass region - would fall to Russia in the next few days.
Donbass is a relatively flat area, unlike the urban areas near Kiev. It is also ideal for Russian artillery and tanks to operate in, although rains can turn the ground into mud. Russia also has fewer logistical problems due to its proximity to its own territory, as well as fewer communication and organizational difficulties.
However, Michael Kofman, a leading expert on the Russian military at CNA, said that Russia also faces challenges in this battle, which is the reorganization and deployment of forces on a large scale. According to this expert, Russian commanders will delay the campaign until they have enough time to build up their entire force. Meanwhile, Western countries will increase the shipment of heavy weapons to Ukraine.The West steps up support and arms assistance
The US and its NATO allies have stepped up deliveries of tanks, helicopters and heavy weapons to Ukraine as its forces prepare for a full-scale war with Russia in the Donbass region.
Recent arms shipments have shown a shift in Western support for Ukraine since the early days. They also show a shift in the nature of the weapons systems from defensive systems such as anti-tank missiles to more offensive weapons systems.
Earlier this month, the Czech Republic decided to ship tanks to Ukraine, becoming the first NATO country to do so since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine on February 24. The Czech Republic also supplied infantry fighting vehicles and artillery systems to Ukraine.
Other NATO countries have also taken similar steps to ship heavy military equipment to Ukraine along the NATO border. Slovakia has provided Ukraine with an advanced S-300 air defense system, while on April 13, the US announced it would provide Ukraine with an additional $800 million worth of military equipment. The shipment includes 11 MI-17 helicopters, 200 M113 armored vehicles, 100 Humvees, 300 Switchblade “kamikaze” drones, heavy howitzers, thousands of artillery shells and other ammunition.
Ukraine needs more tanks because the battlefield in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine has flatter terrain, making it easier for tanks to operate.
The US has begun considering expanding military assistance to Ukraine with a new shipment of weapons. A US defence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said plans were being made to send Ukrainian forces to NATO countries in Eastern Europe for training on new weapons systems such as howitzers and countermeasures radars.
Washington is also re-equipping NATO allies in Eastern Europe, which have supplied their weapons systems to Ukraine. After Slovakia supplied the S-300 system to Ukraine, the US deployed one of its Patriot air defense systems to the country. The US also signed a major arms deal with Poland earlier this month to supply the Polish army with 250 Abrams battle tanks.
Some experts say the US will go further in supporting NATO allies like Poland by re-equipping their air forces with F-16 fighters so that these countries can transfer MiG fighters to Ukraine.
Logistical difficulties
However, shipping heavy weapons to Ukraine is not simple. In addition to the bulkiness of the weapons and vehicles themselves, any shipment to Ukraine requires a complex set of logistics, including training, spare parts, and maintenance to keep the vehicles operational on the battlefield.
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| Carl Gustaf M4 shoulder-fired anti-tank gun. Photo: AP |
"A tank is not a rental car," said Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe.
"Anytime you're thinking about transporting mechanized or armored vehicles, you have to think about spare parts, maintenance packages, training, fuel, ammunition... to keep everything running."
A senior US defense official said on April 11 that several countries are still considering sending tanks to Ukraine, mainly Soviet-era variants that the Ukrainian military has been trained to use.
"This is equipment that Ukraine is already familiar with, so the training time will be relatively quick."
Logistical complexities have caused some Western governments to delay larger shipments of heavy weapons to Ukraine, despite senior Ukrainian officials calling for more Western support for their forces.
Germany's top arms maker Rheinmetall said earlier this week that Berlin was ready to supply up to 50 used Leopard 1 battle tanks to Ukraine, but the German government has yet to give the green light. Some officials have objected to the idea, arguing that training the Ukrainian army on the tanks would take time, as Soviet-era weapons systems in Eastern Europe are more common in Ukraine than Western-made battle tanks. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, however, dismissed the idea, saying the training would only take a few days.
Ukraine, while welcoming the shift in Western attitudes on arms shipments, said it was not enough. Current and former Ukrainian officials said the West could still do more to deliver weapons to Ukraine as the war in the country enters a decisive new phase.
Olena Tregub, head of Ukraine's independent defense anti-corruption commission, said that new shipments from the West were not enough for Ukraine to gain an advantage in the war with Russia.
Risk of conflict spreading
Some German politicians now fear that increased supplies of heavy weapons to Ukraine could make the West a target for Russian military aggression, and have even caused divisions within Germany's ruling coalition.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov also warned in an interview published on April 13 that Russia would consider arms convoys from NATO countries to Ukraine as legitimate military targets. Sergey Ryabkov explained that Moscow’s current goal is to make it clear to the United States and its allies that Russia will use tough tools to respond to efforts to hinder the Russian military in Ukraine.
"We are warning that US and NATO arms convoys on Ukrainian territory will be treated as legitimate military targets."
Russia has maintained this stance since the early days of the war in Ukraine. Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the Russian military had destroyed four S-300 air defense systems that had been delivered to Ukraine by a European country.
Meanwhile, Mr. Hodges is concerned that Western countries providing this military support to Ukraine risks causing a larger conflict between NATO and Russia.
Recently, the Washington Post reported on April 15 that Russia sent an official diplomatic note to the United States this week, warning that Washington and its allies continuing to transport weapons to Ukraine could lead to "unpredictable consequences."
Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov also commented that the US and its Western allies increasing military support for Ukraine only makes the conflict worse and risks leading to direct military confrontation between the US and Russia./.
