Determined to 'support' Ukraine, the US wants to increase tension with Russia?

(Baonghean) - In the context of the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, the US State Department last weekend suddenly announced that the country will support Kiev in strengthening its defense capabilities by providing lethal weapons.

If approved by Congress and signed by the President, this will be a step that marks a complete change in the US's stance on the Ukraine crisis compared to the time of President Barack Obama. What is President Donald Trump calculating? What impact will this move have on the regional situation as well as the relationship with Russia?

US President Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in June 2017 at the White House (Source: AP)

Public sale of lethal weapons

In fact, the story of the US supporting the provision of equipment, training and modernization of military and armed forces for Ukraine is not new. Since 2014, when the conflict in Eastern Ukraine began, the US and NATO countries have started to carry out this work.

However, all support is still limited to non-lethal equipment. Like the US, this country has so far only provided Ukraine with radar systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, light infantry weapons or Hammer armored vehicles. Of course, whether or not the US "secretly" transferred non-lethal weapons to Ukraine, public opinion is still limited to rumors.

However, the United States under President Donald Trump seems to be different. Since taking office, President Trump has expressed very little stance on the Ukraine issue, but he has never officially ruled out the possibility of providing weapons to Kiev.

This is in contrast to the stance of his predecessor, Barack Obama, who always rejected any lethal aid to Ukraine. Remember in August this year, the US government publicly announced information about providing Ukraine with the next batch of military aid with many new weapons, including Glock G17 training pistols as well as mentioning providing Ukraine with advanced Javelin anti-tank missile systems.

On December 22, the US State Department officially announced that it would provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, including the Javelin system, with a total contract value estimated at 47 million USD. Earlier last week, the US State Department also announced that it had approved export licenses allowing US manufacturers to sell small arms and light weapons to Ukraine.

Ukraine rejoices - Russia turns purple

It is not difficult to predict the reactions of parties directly involved in the US plan to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine this time.

Of course, President Petro Poroshenko did not hide his joy and immediately welcomed the US decision. Mr. Poroshenko also affirmed: "American weapons in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers are not used for offensive purposes but to resist invading forces, protect Ukrainian soldiers and citizens as well as effectively defend themselves."

He also commented that this is a transatlantic “vaccine” to help fight against the “aggressive virus” that is Russia. This statement is completely consistent with the explanation of the US State Department that its support for Ukraine is purely defensive in nature, because Ukraine is a sovereign country and has the legitimate right to self-defense.

The US plans to support the Javelin anti-tank missile system, jointly designed and produced by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, for Ukraine (Source: Military Edge)

The agency's statement also stated that this decision is part of the US's efforts to help Ukraine protect its territorial integrity and "prevent the risk of any further aggression."

This promising handshake seems to have been prepared in advance, when recently Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavel Klimkin said that the Kiev government will receive advanced weapons from Washington and in return, the army of this country will provide valuable experience to deal with the Russian Army to the US partners. This is an agreement that Kiev has always put forward to urge the US to have the next military aid packages for this country.

Of course, Russia immediately criticized the new US plan. In a strong statement, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accused the US of “crossing the line” and provoking conflicts in Eastern Ukraine, including Donbass.

And that the US providing Ukraine with “high-level defense capabilities” is considered a dangerous decision because it will encourage Kiev to use force in the East.

At the same time, the Russian news agency TASS quoted the statement of the country's Foreign Ministry saying that the US decision once again undermined the Minsk agreement signed by Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France in early 2015 to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin also warned that the US decision to provide defensive weapons to Ukraine would aggravate the conflict in the East of the country and encourage the opposition there to expand its campaign.

Trump's masterstroke?

Of course, the US plan to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine needs to pass through Congress and be signed by the President before it can be implemented in practice. But while most public opinion is focused on analyzing the negative impacts of the US move, President Donald Trump may have other thoughts.

First of all, there is a high possibility that this arms sale will be approved by the US Congress. The public must know that in 2015, the US Senate approved a bill allowing this type of weapon to be provided to Ukraine, but this decision was opposed by the administration of former President Barack Obama.

But America's leadership is different now. Meanwhile, both houses of Congress are now controlled by Republicans, with many views supporting this plan.

Not only that, many important figures in the US government such as Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson or Senator John McCain - Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee... are all the most active people on this issue, having repeatedly called on President Trump to provide weapons to Ukraine.

Donetsk armed forces. Photo: Internet

Obviously, agreeing with this plan also means that President Trump is gaining sympathy from hard-line views within American politics.

Not only that, if this plan comes into practice, it will be a step in line with the new US security strategy that has just been announced, which considers Russia as one of the top security challenges that need to be dealt with. Public opinion is asking, does President Trump really want to fuel the fire of tension in relations with Russia, when deliberately publicizing the plan to provide lethal weapons to Kiev?

But in reality, most of the military equipment the US is providing to Ukraine is of the old generation, with little functionality and is almost impossible to use. With the new aid package, the Javelin anti-tank missile system is considered modern, but that means the cost of this system will account for almost the total value of the project.

That means, the lethal weapons, if supported, will be very few or continue to be old generations like previous aid. Therefore, if President Trump signs this plan, he will be known as tough on the Ukraine issue as well as with Russia, but on the other hand, he will implicitly understand that these weapons will not be very effective.

However, it is undeniable that the situation in Donbass continues to worsen, as both sides continue to accuse each other of escalating the conflict, and the OSCE special monitoring mission also recorded an increase in the number of shootings.

A new ceasefire deal between Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels came into effect at midnight on December 23, ahead of Christmas and New Year, but both sides are violating it.

Therefore, no matter how the US President is calculating to serve the goal of “America First”, the position and voice of the US in hot international issues such as Ukraine must also be a focus.

Therefore, more than ever, the US's attitude under President Donald Trump on the Ukraine issue may need a breakthrough, to both reaffirm its voice as a superpower and balance strategic interests and relations with other countries.

Phuong Hoa