Did Russia's mistake accidentally give Ukraine an advantage on the southern front?

Concentrate on the battle in the South

British and Ukrainian military officials said on August 7 that Russia is strengthening its bases and forces on the southern front of Ukraine to prepare for a major counter-offensive by Kiev and that Moscow is likely to launch a new attack.

The assessment comes as Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of shelling Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed serious concern about the attacks.

An armored vehicle of pro-Russian forces parked next to the provincial council headquarters in Kherson. Photo: Reuters

According to a report by the British Ministry of Defense, “Russian troops are massing in the south, waiting to counter a Ukrainian counter-offensive or preparing for another attack. Russian convoys of trucks, tanks, artillery and other vehicles continue to move from Donbass to the southwest.”

The Guardian quoted a Ukrainian military intelligence source as saying that Russian forces were pouring fire along the front line in the Kherson region to stop the Ukrainian advance, and deploying more units to attack Mykolaiv and the southern Dnipropetrovsk region. The Russian military also used drones to conduct aerial reconnaissance. Meanwhile, in Zaporizhzhia, Russia has repeatedly launched attacks on Ukrainian positions and added new units to strengthen its forces.

One of the biggest obstacles to Ukraine’s southern offensive could be the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Energoatom, the company that operates the plant in southern Ukraine, said parts of the plant had been “seriously damaged” after shelling and airstrikes, and one of the reactors had to be shut down. Ukrainian President Zelensky blamed Russia for the attacks and called on the European Union to impose sanctions on Russia’s nuclear industry and nuclear fuel.

According to Kiev, Russia has turned the plant into a “nuclear shield,” making it difficult for Ukraine to target Russian troops and equipment inside the plant. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Russia is using the nuclear power plant to “play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine in an effort to weaken Western will.”

But the head of the Russian-founded Zaporizhzhia regional government accused Ukraine of attacking the plant, saying Kiev's forces were responsible for "deciding to put all of Europe on the brink of a nuclear catastrophe" by shelling the plant.

Ukraine's Energoatom nuclear energy agency said spent fuel tanks were hit in the latest shelling, damaging three radiation monitoring sensors and injuring one employee. This makes it difficult to detect radiation leaks from the spent fuel tanks.

The IAEA called for an immediate end to all military activity near the plant. Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said that due to the plant's size and importance, the risk of a nuclear accident could threaten public health and the environment not only in Ukraine but also elsewhere.

The British Ministry of Defence predicts that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will soon enter a new phase and that fighting will shift from the Donbass region to a front of about 350km stretching from the southwest near Zaporizhzhia to Kherson.

At present, the focus of Russia's offensive remains on the remaining areas of eastern Donbass controlled by Ukraine. Moscow is working to achieve its goal of capturing Donbass as soon as possible. Russian troops have captured almost the entire Lugansk region, except for a few small settlements and about half of Donetsk.

According to the announcement of the General Staff of Ukraine on August 7, Russia is carrying out two offensives to capture the towns of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Previously, Moscow took control of the southern part of Pisky - a village in Donetsk near Avdiivka, as well as the small settlement of Travneve, 17.7km south of Bakhmut.

A gunman wearing a Russian flag stands guard at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine on August 4. Photo: Reuters

Russia's mistake?

Some military experts say that Russia is making a mistake by dispersing its forces in many directions in Ukraine instead of focusing on one front, making it difficult to achieve the goals it has set.

“After the success in Lugansk, Russia is having difficulty consolidating its interests in Donetsk,” said Andriy Zagorodniuk, former Ukrainian defense minister. “We have talked to many analysts and most of them are skeptical about Russia’s ability to gain control over the whole of Donetsk.”

While Russia has made major advances in Donbass, Ukraine has made some gains in the south, analysts say. Kiev forces have targeted Russia’s land lines of communication and supply lines across the Dnipro River. Two of the three bridges used by Russia to transport troops, military equipment and supplies have been severely damaged by HIMARS missile strikes. The last bridge to Kherson is now within range of Ukrainian fire.

In response, Russia has deployed a total of nearly 25,000 troops to Kherson – a city located on the west bank of the Dnipro River, one of the longest rivers in Europe. Nearly 10,000 of these troops were redeployed via the route in Nova Kakhovka. Russia has also installed many pontoon bridges to help soldiers access both banks of the river.

The redeployment of airborne units to the south will delay the Russian offensive on Sloviansk, but it will give Moscow an additional layer of defense to its existing defenses in Kherson, ISW said.

For Ukraine, the third phase of the war may be less stressful than the previous two phases, as the country receives most of its support from the West, especially heavy artillery, ammunition and many advanced weapons. However, Ukraine still finds it difficult to surpass Russia in terms of number of soldiers and artillery firepower.

It’s worth noting that Russia has significant resources it has yet to mobilize for the war. It has millions of people of military age, a robust defense industry despite Western sanctions, hundreds of thousands of active-duty troops, and thousands of armored vehicles of all types. If Putin sees Ukraine starting to gain an advantage in the fighting, he could mobilize a large number of men and materials ready to overwhelm his opponents on the battlefield, noted Daniel L. Davis, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic Analysis, Defense Priorities, and a former lieutenant colonel in the US Army.