After 50 years of rise, how does China now challenge the power of the US and Japan?

The US plays a catalytic role in China's growth

It was the United States that was responsible for effectively forcing China to act as a nation-state. The American challenge of the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the Korean War (in which China was a participant) aroused Chinese national pride. And China was determined not to be so intimidated in the future.

The US and Chinese flags. Photo: AP

China detonated its first nuclear device on October 16, 1964. With its meteoric economic growth, China began to openly challenge the existing world order.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the world order changed from bipolar (with the US-Soviet confrontation) to unipolar (led by the US). Now China is emerging as a force challenging that US superiority, both militarily and economically.

In addition, China has surpassed the US in its ability to strategically win over poor countries through investment programs (such as investments in Africa, the Middle East, and the Belt and Road project).

Comparing US and Chinese military capabilities

China cannot now or in the foreseeable future match the overwhelming dominance of the United States as the world’s number one naval power. The Chinese navy in 2023 could be considered a “green navy.” It will take China at least two decades to catch up with the US navy, which has about 10 aircraft carriers and a fleet of nuclear-capable submarines. The Chinese navy has a long way to go before it becomes a deep-water force.

India is a nuclear power but cannot be called an ally of the US. Pakistan is located near China but will find it difficult to follow the US against China. So there are only two countries near China that the US can consider in the great power competition, which are South Korea and Japan.

If the US were to provide nuclear weapons to South Korea, it would trigger an immediate reaction from North Korea. Therefore, Japan is the only choice for the US.

The possibility of Japan going nuclear to counter China

Will Japan choose to develop nuclear weapons in the near future? Tensions between China and Japan on many issues, especially the dispute over some islands, could push Japan in this direction.

China's nine-dash line policy in the East Sea is also unacceptable to Japan.

Japan is not a military rival to China at the moment, unless it chooses to develop nuclear weapons. If Japan becomes a nuclear weapons state, it will change the security matrix in Asia and the world in an instant. At that time, China's nuclear and financial deterrence will no longer be at the current level.

Once a nuclearized Japan scenario occurs, China will be forced to reconsider its nuclear doctrine, its nine-dash line policy, and its economic diplomacy to influence poor countries.

China currently has a “no first use” policy for its nuclear weapons. But in the event that Japan becomes a nuclear power, China may have to adjust its nuclear doctrine to “use when dangerous problems are detected.”

Japan also has another motive for nuclearization: to neutralize pressure for a nuclear attack from North Korea.

Japan has the technological capacity to produce nuclear weapons if it so chooses. At least 25% of Japan's electricity is generated by its nuclear reactors. Building a uranium enrichment centrifuge complex is within Japan's reach. Japan's space program is world-class. The launch vehicle is already available.

To attack targets in China, Japan only needs a long-range ballistic missile. Besides, the Japanese air force is also a state-of-the-art force. With the upcoming purchase of a large number of F-35 multi-role fighters, Japan has another effective means of dropping nuclear bombs on enemy territory. Japan does not need the third element of the nuclear triad, which is a nuclear submarine, due to the relatively close distance between Japan and China.

While not yet recognized, Japan has an aircraft carrier or at least the technology to build one.

In fact, given Japan's expertise in miniaturizing almost anything and its extreme level of sophistication in electronics, Japan could become the first nuclear power to possess a “UAV-mounted nuclear weapons delivery system.”

Nuclear-tipped missiles could be placed on any of Japan's numerous islands, especially in the north of the country.

In addition to its own internal capacity, Japan can also receive nuclear technology support from the US. The probability that the US will agree to help Japan in this regard is not small./.