After the Brexit vote, what scenario for the EU?

(Baonghean.vn) - Although unlikely, it is still possible that British lawmakers ignore the results of the Brexit referendum and do not begin to discuss how the foggy kingdom leaves the European Union (EU). Here is the scenarioupcomingmay occur in the EU.

Illustration: DW.

The British Parliament, as an independent body, is not obliged to initiate negotiations under Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement to negotiate the country's exit from the EU. However, such a move would be considered "unprecedented" and observers say it is very unlikely to happen.

On June 24, leaders of political parties in the European Parliament will meet in Brussels, Belgium, to discuss the results of the referendum. A majority have expressed a desire to pursue a quick separation from Britain in the worst-case scenario. It will take up to a year to finalize contracts with the EU and organize Britain's formal withdrawal from the bloc.

However, it is unclear how long it will take for the UK and EU to forge a new relationship. Will the UK be a regular non-member like the US or Saudi Arabia? Or will it be given special partner status? Or will it be able to join the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), like Norway and Switzerland, with its own obligations and privileges?

Martin Schulz will be the first senior Brussels official to comment on the UK referendum result. Photo: dpa.

European Parliament President Martin Schulz will be the first senior representative from Brussels to appear on camera to comment on the referendum result. In an interview before his speech, Schulz said he expected negotiations with the UK to begin soon.

"The UK has decided to go its own way. I think the economic data that came out this morning shows that it will be a very difficult path," Schulz told German television channel ZDF.

Schulz and the other two presidents of Europe's biggest institutions - the European Commission and the European Council - will also meet for consultations. After this meeting, Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk and Schulz are expected to answer the question: What happens next?

Of course, the telephone lines between Brussels and the European capitals will be busy. Berlin and Paris have prepared a joint statement. Poland may also join in.

In Luxembourg, the EU General Council will meet for a special session. The council, which usually includes foreign ministers and other officials, is expected to prepare conclusions for a decision at the EU summit next week. These decisions will pave the way for Britain and the EU after the referendum: will it be a quick and painful divorce, a lengthy negotiation process, or will everything stay as it is? Because of these special circumstances, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier will also fly to Luxembourg.

June 25

Foreign ministers from the six countries that signed the Treaty of Rome, which established the EU in 1957, will meet in Berlin or Brussels. Ministers from Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Italy and Germany want to consult on what will happen to the EU when Britain leaves: more cooperation, looser cooperation or a new core Europe made up of these six countries?

Mr Juncker, like Mr Cameron, has pledged not to resign if Brexit happens. Photo: Reuters.

June 26

The German-French duo, also known as the heart of Europe, will be present: Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Francois Hollande want to meet in Berlin or Paris. They will find solutions and prepare for the meeting of heads of state and government of the member states at the EU Summit.

June 28 and 29

The European Council, made up of the heads of state and government of the 28 EU member states, will meet in Brussels. It is possible that British Prime Minister Cameron will not attend, or will only make a token appearance, as the people have voted to leave.

The EU will then implement the plan it outlined at a special summit in February: The goal of an “ever-closer union” will be scrapped. Welfare benefits for EU citizens living in Britain will be reduced. And the European Economic and Monetary Union, of which Britain is not a member, will be expanded in a way that does not affect the financial center of London.

Phu Binh

(According to DW)