Syria - "A powder keg waiting to explode"

The current situation in Syria is like a “powder keg waiting to explode”, with the main trigger being a chemical weapons attack at the last important stronghold - Idlib.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Kunashenkov accused the US of mobilizing large forces to the Mediterranean region. Photo: Daily Stars

The danger of a "firestorm" is imminent

Information about the risk of a major attack on Syria began to appear when Russia warned about a massive "mobilization" of the US military at key locations in the Mediterranean. The US "super weapons" that Russia "named" include the US Navy destroyer The Sullivans, equipped with 56 cruise missiles, B-1B strategic bombers carrying AGM-158 JASSM air-to-ground missiles, and most recently the appearance of the USS Ross destroyer carrying 18 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Russia said that by mobilizing strategic weapons to the Mediterranean, the US is preparing for an attack on Syria in the "next few days".

With their own calculations, Russia and the United States have long been considered two "rival" forces on the Syrian battlefield. Therefore, it is clear that Russia cannot sit still in the face of these moves by the United States. Although there is no confirmation, many information channels show that Russia has also increased its military presence to an "unprecedented" level since it began intervening in the Syrian battlefield in 2015. The Russian Navy has dispatched 15 warships from both the Northern Fleet and the Black Sea Fleet carrying Kalibr cruise missiles, notably the guided-missile destroyer Slava Marshal Ustinov and the heavy anti-submarine destroyer Severomorsk. Russia frankly stated that its air defense forces in Syria will ensure the safety of Russian military bases in Hmeimin and Tartus as well as the positions of its military advisers and experts on support missions in Syria.

Facing the threat of attack, the Syrian government also confirmed that its air defense forces are on the highest alert. Syrian air defense systems and soldiers are ready to fight back against a possible surprise attack on Damascus and surrounding areas. Sources supporting the Syrian government said that the country's military is awaiting orders to repel the missile attack by the US-led coalition, if it happens. What is happening on the ground is signaling a "firestorm" that will break out in the Syrian sky at any time.

Russia blocks America's "old script"

A “firestorm” in Syria would erupt if there were a chemical weapons attack. The question is, will such a chemical weapons attack happen?

If in the past, Russia only spoke out to "defend" Syria against accusations that the government of this country carried out a chemical attack after the "fact", this time Russia has learned its lesson. For many days now, Russia has continuously warned that the US is staging a chemical weapons attack to blame the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, thereby creating an excuse for a large-scale attack. Russia's accusations are quite convincing when pointing out very specific details, that is, terrorist groups led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and the Al-Nusra Front are actively preparing provocative actions to accuse the Syrian government of using chemical weapons against civilians. According to Russia, the White Helmets organization has supported the transportation of toxic chemicals to the rebels. Specifically, 2 trucks carried a large amount of toxic chemicals from the village of Afs to the city of Saraqib. Some of the toxic chemicals were then hidden in plastic containers and transported to other rebel bases to stage a chemical weapons attack. And the location of the attack was the last major stronghold in the tug-of-war between the Syrian government and opposition forces - Idlib.

By revealing details of a possible chemical weapons attack, Russia may want to prevent a repeat of the April attack on a Syrian air base after the government was accused of using chemical weapons in Eastern Ghouta. Although the US has not commented on Russia, its actions show that it is not "backing down". US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis admitted that although there have been discussions with Russian officials to prevent a new attack, if one occurs, the US will still act as it did the previous two times - that is, launch missiles directly at the Syrian army. The US's readiness is also enthusiastically supported by its allies Britain and France, which have also affirmed that they will attack Syria if the use of chemical weapons is confirmed.

A chemical weapons attack in Idlib - the "trigger" that triggered a new war in Syria. Photo: Al Jazeera

Decisive battle in Syria

It can be said that whether or not a chemical weapons attack in Idlib happens, Idlib will still be the place to witness decisive developments in the situation on the Syrian battlefield. However, no one can predict whether it will be for the better or for the worse.

So far, the situationThe situation in Syria is progressing positively as the government has liberated and controlled more than 90% of the territory, is preparing to welcome refugees back, and is planning to rebuild the country after the war. In the event that there is no chemical weapons attack, the US and its allies do not attack Syria, the Syrian government is said to have enough strength to deal with the last "hot spot" Idlib. Analysts say that with the advantage on the battlefield and strong support from Russia, the Syrian army does not need to use chemical weapons in Idlib. This is considered the most anticipated scenario to bring the war that has lasted more than 7 years in this Middle Eastern country to an end. But if for some reason, under the arrangement of a certain force, a chemical weapons attack occurs, a "firestorm" will certainly cover the sky of Syria. A new attack under the joint efforts of major countries such as the US, UK, and France could lead to a larger-scale war in the region, making the conflict in Syria even more persistent.

According to experts, developments in Idlib now depend largely on the calculations of the powers on the Syrian “chessboard”. The US, UK, and France want to keep Idlib and some northern areas under the control of opposition forces in order to divide Syria. Meanwhile, Russia needs to protect President Assad’s government not only to protect its bases in Syria but also to protect Russia’s symbolic presence in the region.

At this point, the world is waiting for diplomatic efforts to be promoted that can “defuse” Idlib, which are the trilateral meeting between Russia, Iran, and Türkiye and the meeting called by the United Nations, both of which will take place in September. These diplomatic efforts will be a “race against time” before any bad news is released from Idlib.