Why Europe is not ready to spend 5% of GDP on defense

According to RT, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in an interview with Der Tagesspiegel that Berlin cannot afford to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

“Five percent of our GDP would be 42 percent of the federal budget, or 230 billion euros. We cannot afford it and we cannot spend that much money,” TASS quoted Mr. Pistorius as saying.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stressed the need to increase defense spending to 5% in NATO countries. He made this proposal on January 7, at a press conference in Mar-o-Lago. He said that Europe's share of total NATO spending is insignificant, while reiterating that the combined economic potential of European countries is equivalent to that of the United States.

“I think NATO should come up with 5%. 2% from each country is not going to work, if you have a regular army in your country, I think it should be 4%. They can all pay, but the number should be 5%, not 2%” – Mr. Donald Trump emphasized.

According to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the alliance countries cannot accept the figure proposed by President Trump “unilaterally without discussion”. At the same time, Mr. Pistorius believes that the need to invest more money in defense is legitimate. The minister believes that in the future Germany will have to allocate more than 2% for these purposes, which is currently the standard for NATO countries.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also called for increased military spending last December, although he did not provide specific figures.

“It is time to switch to a wartime mindset,” Mr Rutte said. “We must dramatically increase defence production and defence spending.”

Experts say that NATO's move to a 5% spending target is only possible in the distant future.

“This is a very high level of military spending in peacetime. They simply cannot reach 3-4%, let alone 5%. But in the long term, if NATO sets such a task, they can do it,” said Alexey Podberezkin, director of the Center for Military-Political Studies at Russia’s MGIMO.

According to Dmitry Levi, Associate Professor of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St Petersburg University, Mr Trump's statement about 5% could be a tactical move that the US President is using to force the EU to increase spending on military needs.

“Trump has a lot of experience in turning the tables in negotiations. Now he is deliberately raising the bar. This will allow the US leader to negotiate any terms. This is why Trump is making such high tariff claims. These numbers are scary. In future negotiations, the US may lower its demands in exchange for something else,” the analyst said in a conversation with RT.

Experts do not rule out the possibility that President Trump’s request for increased spending may be related to the US intention to reduce its military presence in Europe and shift it to the Asia-Pacific region. The US is currently redistributing resources to the Asia-Pacific region. Already today, more than 50% of the US military is concentrated in this region, and they spend less on the North Atlantic. They want to compensate for the resulting difference at the expense of European countries.

In addition, a sharp increase in military spending would negatively impact the European economy, which is already going through difficult times.

“Europe is stagnant, with zero or even negative growth. Increasing military spending will create additional difficulties. The external debt of these countries will increase sharply; it is already quite large. The external debt of countries such as the UK, France, Germany and Italy is about three to four times larger than that of Russia,” said expert Alexey Podberezkin.