Challenges for Ukraine in the counter-offensive against Russia

On August 29, the Ukrainian army announced that it had launched multiple attacks on the southern region of the country, including Kherson province, to retake territories currently controlled by Russia.

It is difficult to assess the scope and immediate impact of the counteroffensive campaign, but according to experts, it could set the stage for further developments in the conflict.

Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire an M777 howitzer at Russian positions on July 14. Photo:AP

For months, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly announced a major counteroffensive in Kherson to push Russian forces away from the west bank of the Dnieper River, the natural barrier that separates the region.

President Volodymyr Zelensky's government is also under pressure to launch a swift counteroffensive before the arrival of the rainy season, which has turned the Ukrainian countryside into a muddy mess, and a winter energy crisis that threatens to undermine Western support for Kiev.

Observers say the success of the operation will help Ukraine boost its fighting spirit and convince its Western allies to continue providing weapons. Meanwhile, the failure of Ukraine in the counter-offensive will cause the fighting to fall into a stalemate, something Kiev never wanted.

Ukrainian military and civilian officials said the attack on August 29 had “broken the enemy’s first line of defense near Kherson.” The Ukrainian military also claimed to have destroyed a large Russian military base behind the lines.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed the Ukrainian counterattack in the area, but added that “Ukrainian units suffered heavy losses” and the attack had “failed miserably.” According to Moscow, about 560 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and wounded, two warplanes and dozens of tanks and other vehicles were destroyed in the counterattack.

“The counterattack shows Ukraine’s desire to break the stalemate on the battlefield,” said a US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, but he noted that the Pentagon was still unsure whether Ukraine could make significant advances with its current military strength.

Ukrainian Sergeant Dmytro Pysanka, stationed at the Kherson front, confirmed that "the counteroffensive operation is underway". "I don't know what will happen next and how, but so far everything is going according to plan," he replied in a message toNY Times.

Since late July, HIMARS rocket artillery systems supplied to Ukraine by the US have begun targeting bridges leading to the city of Kherson in an attempt to isolate Russian forces west of the Dnieper River.

General Dmytro Marchenko, a senior Ukrainian military official, has said Kherson will be liberated by the end of the year. But observers say that goal is a huge challenge for Ukraine.

A Ukrainian defensive position on the border of Mykolaiv and Kherson oblasts, southern part of the country. Photo:WSJ

HIMARS artillery strikes weakened the Russian defenses in Kherson, but that was not enough. After the artillery bombardment, only infantry could regain control of the territory.

According to military theory, an attacking army needs three times as many troops as a defending unit. Meanwhile, numbers are clearly not Ukraine's advantage.

After Kiev repeatedly announced a counter-offensive campaign, Russia took a precautionary move by withdrawing its forces from the city of Izyum on the Eastern front to reinforce Kherson and neighboring areas.

According to Konrad Muzyka, an expert from Rochan Consulting, a company that monitors the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia deployed 13 battalion-level combat groups (BTGs) in Kherson at the end of July, but this number could now increase to 25-30 BTGs, each with 600-800 troops.

"I think Ukraine has missed its best chance to counterattack," Muzyka said. "They now don't have enough manpower to equalize the numbers with Russia."

According to the magazineEconomistUkraine has a fairly large armed force in terms of numbers, but most of it is made up of members of the Territorial Defense Forces, which do not have specialized military training.

Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said that after six months of fierce fighting, Ukraine’s best brigades had suffered heavy losses. Training and equipping new units for a counter-offensive would take a long time.

Attacks typically require more ammunition than defenses. Attacking forces also tend to suffer higher casualties. Since 1992, the Ukrainian military has not regularly studied offensive strategies during exercises, according to Sergiy Grabskyi, a colonel in the reserve forces of the Ukrainian army.

“After eight years of fighting in the east, Ukrainian military units are excellent at defense, but they have almost no experience in carrying out large-scale offensive operations,” he said.

Unlike Ukraine, the Russian army has had time to prepare its defenses. For months, it has been digging a vast trench system in Kherson. It may also have trained artillery to lie in wait along the routes that Ukraine will use to advance.

“The Ukrainian counteroffensive is at risk of hitting a dead end,” said Chris Dougherty, a former Pentagon official. “They could pay a heavy price for lack of manpower and materiel. This is likely to be Ukraine’s last major offensive this year.”

A Ukrainian military intelligence source described the latest offensive in Kherson in rather reserved terms, saying it was just the opening step of a larger operation.

On the night of August 28, Ukraine attacked key bridges, river crossings, ammunition depots and Russian command centers in the south, cutting off Russia's ability to support the front line from the rear.

The source said that breaking through the first line of Russian defense was good news. But a more difficult challenge awaited them ahead: breaking through the second line, which was defended by more mobile and powerful mechanized units.

If Ukraine succeeds in this effort, it will have a chance to break through the third line of defense to the banks of the Dnieper River northeast of the city of Kherson, thereby threatening the 20,000-25,000 Russian troops believed to be deployed on the west bank of the river.

The situation on the Ukrainian battlefield after more than 6 months of fighting. Graphics:NY Times

A former senior Ukrainian official said the immediate goal of the operation was not to directly attack Russian forces in Kherson, but to weaken Russian positions around the area, hoping to force them to retreat without any urban fighting breaking out. Urban battles tend to be protracted, causing heavy losses to both attackers and defenders.

"If Ukraine only retakes Kherson, Russian forces will increase artillery fire from across the river," he warned, predicting that Ukraine's counterattack will take place slowly and steadily, to minimize risks to the attacking force.