What China's Attitude Signals in the South China Sea

What the Chinese representative showed at the Asian Security Dialogue last weekend shows that Beijing will not de-escalate in the East Sea in the near future.

Admiral Sun Jianguo, China's representative at Shangri-La recently, sent a message to the country's people that the military will protect national interests. Photo: AFP

"When Admiral Sun Jianguo said: We do not create trouble but we are not afraid of trouble, it seems to be a sign that Beijing will not be stopped by the US and will do whatever it wants in the East Sea,"Dr.Harry Kazianis, Fellow in National Security Policy, FoundationPotomac (PotomacFoundation), USA, spoke with VnExpress about Mr. Ton's statement,Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army at Asia's largest security forum, the Shangri-La Dialogue, last weekend.

According to himKazianis, representative of ChinaIt has also been repeatedly stated that the East Sea is its own sea since ancient times, an indispensable territory like its "home pond".China shows its determination to control the East Sea, can do whatever it wants. That is a "very dangerous statement", grandfatherKazianis said.

This expert warned that China will bring more advanced radar systems to the East Sea to cover the entire view in this area, deploy air defense equipment.in larger quantities and of higher quality. Beijing could also deploy anti-ship weaponslike the "carrier killer" missileDF-21Dfamous.

All these moves are aimed at preparing Beijing fordeclare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) within the next 12 to 18 months,Kazianis commented. China could even announce it in the coming weeks if it feels its grip on the South China Sea is loosening when the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) of the United Nations issues its ruling on the Philippines' lawsuit.Kazianis assessed that now the question of China's ADIZ in the East Sea is only "when", not "whether" anymore.

"I was so surprised when AdmiralChina's Sun Jianguo refutes US Defense Secretary's argumentAshton Carter that Beijing is building a wall of isolation",Ms. Bonnie Glaser, senior advisor on Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), USA, who attended the Shangri-la Dialogue, said in an email to VnExpress.

In the opening session of the Asia Security Forum on June 4, whenUS Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said that nChina's actions in the South China Sea are isolating the country, at a time when the region is coming together and coordinating its actions. Mr. Carter also warned that if these actions continue, China could create "a Great Wall of self-isolation."

In response, Mr. Sun Jian Guo accused "some people and countries still look at China with a Cold War spirit", Beijing is not isolated but "countries that build walls in their minds will isolate themselves".

The CSIS expert stressed his concerns about the "performance" of Chinese representatives at this Security Dialogue. AdmiralSun also described his bilateral meetings with the 17 counterparts as “warmer and friendlier” than discussions last year. The Chinese admiral also said he received fewer questions during discussions about the South China Sea, which showed that the countries’ trust had increased compared to last year’s Dialogue.

“If Beijing truly believes that its behavior over the past year has led to greater confidence that China will rise peacefully and without harming others, then China and its leaders are truly deluding themselves,” she said.Glaser said.

As a direct participant in the meetings, Ms.Glaser said that Admiral Sun in his speech did not mention Chinese President Xi Jinping's commitment to "non-militarization of the East Sea", made in Washington, USA last September.

"Sun spoke in a high-pitched, shrill tone that intimidated the audience, while assuring the Chinese people that the PLA would protect China's national interests. Once again, what Sun showed left the impression that China did not care about the concerns of other countries and would continue with its plans in the South China Sea regardless," she said.Glaser said.

Referring to the upcoming ruling of the PCA on the Philippines’ case, Ms. Glaser expressed her optimism about the outcome. She also noted that the PCA will make its judgments on each issue and expects most of the rulings to bring bright prospects.

GrandfatherKazianis also agreed that the Philippines would have a big advantage in the PCA's ruling. However, he noted that "words on paper" would not stop China from pressing ahead with its claims in the South China Sea. As for the US, heKazianis reviewsFreedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea will not make a difference either, FONOPs are not a strategy, and China will continue to ignore them, pushing to change the status quo.

"The United States needs to strengthen cooperation with partners and allies, and makea comprehensive strategy to deal with China, then Beijing can step back from the planned plan is a great tragedy for all countries in Asia," he said.Kazianis said.

According to VNE