Credit growth in 2026 is projected to increase by 15%, injecting an additional 2.79 trillion VND into the economy.

The State Bank of Vietnam projects that the total amount of credit supplied to the economy in 2026 will reach approximately 2.79 trillion VND, corresponding to a growth rate of 15% compared to 2025. According to analysts, this breakthrough is based on the foundation of outstanding credit balances reaching over 18.58 trillion VND by the end of 2025.

Four drivers of credit growth in 2026

The financial market in 2026 is expected to see stable growth based on four key factors. First is the strong recovery ofreal estateThanks to the removal of legal barriers starting in 2025, the new legal frameworks, officially effective from 2026, will create a transparent foundation, boosting both individual demand for home loans and capital demand from developers.

Monday,disbursement of public investmentThe economy continues to be a bright spot as many key infrastructure projects enter their peak construction phase. The implementation of new projects under the 2026-2030 infrastructure plan will expand credit opportunities for businesses in the construction, building materials, and logistics sectors.

Third, the recovery ofretail operationsCombined with the improved capital absorption capacity of the business sector, this will contribute to expanding the scope for consumer credit. Finally, although interest rates are projected to trend slightly upwards, the expected increase will be lower than in previous periods, helping to maintain favorable access to capital.

Pressure on the banking system to supply medium and long-term capital.

Ms. Ha Thu Giang, Director of the Department of Credit for Economic Sectors (State Bank of Vietnam), noted that the pressure to supply capital to the economy remains very high. The main reason is that financial market channels such as corporate bonds and securities have not yet fully played their role as the primary source of medium and long-term capital.

According to Ms. Giang, the increasing demand for capital for key national projects is putting pressure on credit institutions. Notably, the banking system's capital still mainly consists of short-term deposits (accounting for up to 80%), leading to certain maturity risks.

The results of the 2026 credit trend survey show that, among the six main sectors, the sector...industrial and construction developmentThe sector continues to lead in terms of capital demand growth. This is followed by trade, services, personal consumption, green economy, and high-tech investment.

Prioritize investment flows into strategic infrastructure and the digital economy.

Mr. Le Hoang Tung, Deputy General Director of Vietcombank, predicted that capital demand will be strongly concentrated in key areas such as strategic infrastructure investment, production and business (especially manufacturing), renewable energy, and the digital economy. In addition, capital demand from the private sector, FDI, and SMEs will continue to play a crucial role in the growth structure.

Credit institutions assess that the macroeconomic growth outlook and the implementation of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements will positively impact credit demand throughout 2026.