US President issues ultimatum to Israeli Prime Minister: Has frustration reached its peak?

Message after the “wrong” attack

After months of US calls for Israel to change its military tactics that have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, the message came after an Israeli attack that killed seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) aid workers and sparked global outrage.

Israel admitted the attack was a mistake.

The White House has not said exactly what steps it wants Mr. Netanyahu to take or what it will do if he does not take them, but analysts say the implicit threat is to slow down the transfer of American weapons to Israel or reduce American support at the United Nations.

"In effect, the president is saying, meet these humanitarian needs or I will have no choice but to limit (military) assistance," said Dennis Ross, a veteran US diplomat at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Mr. Biden, up for reelection in November, has struggled to balance pressure from liberal Democrats dismayed by the Palestinian civilian toll to rein in Mr. Netanyahu and the risk of alienating most pro-Israel independent voters. He has so far resisted placing conditions on arms transfers.

For the first time since the start of the war in Gaza, President Joe Biden has threatened to limit support for Israel's offensive there, saying US policy could change if Israel does not take concrete steps to protect civilians and aid workers.

The war broke out after Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people (according to Israeli statistics), leading to an Israeli military move against Gaza, which destroyed much of the densely populated territory and displaced most of its 2.3 million people.

According to the Health Authority in Hamas-ruled Gaza, more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed, most of them women and children. Israel accuses Hamas of using civilians as human shields.

The White House said Mr. Biden called on Israel to “announce and implement a series of specific, detailed, and measurable steps to address civilian casualties, humanitarian hardship, and the safety of aid workers.

“The president made clear that US policy toward Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate response to these steps,” the White House added in a statement.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was more blunt: “I will just say this: if we don't see the changes that we need to see, there will be changes in our policy.”

On the evening of April 4, just hours after the call, the Israeli government announced several steps to increase the flow of aid into Gaza, including opening the port of Ashdod and the Erez crossing into northern Gaza and increasing aid deliveries from Jordan. It is unclear whether these steps will be enough to meet the US request.

Turning Point

The turning point for Mr. Biden, a staunch supporter of Israel, was the April 1 Israeli attack on employees of the WCK charity founded by celebrity chef Jose Andres.

The attack comes as the Biden administration is stepping up pressure on Israel to consider alternatives to a possible ground offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, the last relatively safe haven for civilians in the coastal strip.

A source close to the talks, who asked not to be named, said the 30-minute call was tense at times, with Mr. Biden raising his concerns and Mr. Netanyahu defending his approach on Gaza.

A senior White House official described the conversation as "very direct, very candid" and said it involved Vice President Kamala Harris, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Blinken.

As for what the US expects, the official said: "We need a comprehensive plan for them to do a much better job here. They cannot kill humanitarian aid workers and civilians."

Although Mr. Biden has long avoided cutting American support for Israel, he may have finally reached his limit.

“There was always a point at which the Biden administration felt that the domestic and international costs of supporting the Israeli campaign in Gaza outweighed the benefits Israel could achieve on the ground,” said Mike Singh, a former National Security Council official who worked on the Middle East. “What’s remarkable is not that this is happening, but that it’s been going on for so long.”

Singh, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said if Israel did not meet Biden’s conditions, the most likely step would be for the US to negotiate a UN Security Council resolution like the one that ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

“Putting conditions on arms transfers is more politically worrisome, likely to face stiff opposition on Capitol Hill and could leave Israel vulnerable to attack by Hezbollah or other Iranian proxies,” he added.

However, Mr Biden may have given his thoughts away last month, after saying the Rafah attack would be a “red line”, insisting he would never cut off “all the weapons so they don’t have the Iron Dome missile defence system to protect them”.

He did not offer such explicit assurances on offensive weapons, raising speculation that he might impose conditions on the transfer of such weapons to Israel, which is heavily dependent on US arms.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former intelligence official in the Middle East, said Mr. Biden was unlikely to take drastic action that would reverse the U.S.-Israel relationship, such as refusing to supply heavy weapons or completely abandoning Israel at the United Nations.

But he could impose conditions on smaller military items and take further measures against extremist Jewish settlers linked to attacks on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

“Mr. Biden’s frustration with the way the war is being conducted, and with Prime Minister Netanyahu himself, has reached a boiling point,” Panikoff said.