Will the Philippine President use China to provoke the US?

Philippine President Duterte may be acting pro-China and tough on the US to force Washington to make concessions and give them more benefits.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Photo: Inquirer

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has taken an increasingly hard line against the United States, announcing last week that Washington and Manila would end joint military exercises (the Philippine military later said the defense secretary would discuss them with the president). Duterte has also raised eyebrows by using profanity to insult the US ambassador to the Philippines and US President Obama, while also warming to China and Russia.

Lauro Baja, the Philippines' former permanent representative to the United Nations, doubts that Mr Duterte will completely abandon the country's alliance with the US, according to SCMP.

“I don’t think so,” Baja said. “I think he’s smarter than that, he should know which side of the bread is buttered.” According to Baja, Duterte is using the prospect of closer ties with China and Russia as a “bargaining chip” with the United States.

He said the military would probably try to dissuade Mr Duterte from doing so “because the Philippine armed forces are so dependent on the US for military equipment and support. They have established networks with the US that they don’t have with China or Russia”.

Teodoro Locsin, Jr., the newly appointed Philippine permanent representative to the United Nations, is optimistic that the US will not mind the harsh rhetoric because "Americans are not irrational people. They always study the issue carefully."

The US has responded mildly to Mr Duterte's comments by saying it "has no objection if he wants to promote diplomatic relations with Russia and China", Locsin said.

One stock market analyst said Mr Duterte was “setting the table” for one superpower to play against the other. By angering Washington, Manila could persuade Beijing to negotiate and offer it infrastructure projects like a railway in the south. Then Mr Duterte “will go back to the US and ask: what can you give me?” the analyst said.

He described the situation as a “lovers’ quarrel” and commented: “I don’t believe he will change sides. He is just playing games with the US.” He added that the driving force of the Philippine economy is American companies that hire workers here.

However, in California, lawyer Rodel Rodis, who holds dual Philippine and American citizenship, called Mr Duterte's moves "very worrying because the Philippines' pivot to China is becoming very clear".

“I think his actions were sincere,” said Mr. Rodis, citing “unprovoked attacks on the American ambassador, and constant references to American crimes over 100 years ago.”

"He blames the US for every problem in the Philippines, but he is very polite to Chinese President Xi Jinping and China," he said. "He has never insulted Xi the way he did US President Barack Obama, Pope Francis and the European Union."

According to VNE