North Korea's excessive military provocation angers China?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: AP

North Korea has recently hinted at restarting nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests to put more pressure on the Biden administration, which has long been unwilling to compromise on denuclearization and sanctions imposed on Pyongyang. But if it goes too far, North Korea could lose the support of China, which has for years called for the lifting of sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) because Pyongyang has suspended nuclear and ICBM tests.

Foreign affairs experts say China's leadership under President Xi Jinping will be particularly intolerant of new North Korean nuclear tests, as China has long been concerned about the possibility of radioactive contamination from its neighbor.

China, which is seen as keen to successfully host the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics to boost its national standing, is also concerned about the prospect of North Korea's nuclear or ICBM tests disrupting the world's biggest sporting event, experts say.

In a recent report by the Nakasone Peace Institute in Tokyo, Professor Junya Nishino of Keio University assessed that as North Korea faces economic difficulties, strengthening its "national defense capabilities" will help leader Kim Jong-un consolidate his power. At the same time, North Korea focuses on strengthening relations with China to overcome a number of challenges including economic recession.

In addition, experts say, by revealing its upgraded weapons and increasing security tensions in the region, home to US allies Japan and South Korea, North Korea may be trying to force Washington back to the negotiating table to discuss easing sanctions.

Experts say that as long as the Biden administration remains preoccupied with Russia's massive military buildup on the Ukrainian border and indifferent to issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula, Pyongyang will not stop working to develop its arsenal.

Professor Stephen Nagy from the International Christian University (ICU-Tokyo, Japan) commented: "The recent tests demonstrate North Korea's expanding missile capabilities and are a warning to the US that ignoring North Korea puts them at their peril. It may be an attempt to achieve sanctions relief and COVID-19 relief because the combination of UN sanctions and the pandemic is making it difficult for Pyongyang to feed its people and generate economic growth."

However, according to Professor Nagy, "it is unlikely that we will see a major change in the dynamics between Pyongyang and Washington unless Pyongyang agrees to some form of freeze on weapons testing and development."

A diplomatic source said that in order to turn around the economic situation in North Korea, leader Kim Jong-un must focus on promoting cooperation with China in the current situation. However, according to this source, China will avoid extending a helping hand to North Korea if it dares to conduct ICBM or nuclear tests, because Beijing has always been "proud" of having prevented Pyongyang from "going out of control".

The source stressed that if North Korea conducts such tests, "China will lose face and be forced to guard against radioactive contamination." The source added: "If North Korea launches an ICBM or nuclear test during the Beijing Winter Olympics, President Xi will be very angry and may stop economic aid to North Korea. This is the worst-case scenario for leader Kim Jong-un"./.