China: Is having a second child not easy?

(Baonghean) - On Thursday, October 29th, China announced the abolition of its one-child policy. After nearly 40 years of implementation, this policy is considered no longer suitable for the economic development situation and trends of the country with the world's largest population.

In 1978, then-Chinese President Deng Xiaoping issued a series of reform and opening-up policies aimed at boosting China's economic development. Among these, the one-child policy, implemented in 1979, aimed to control the extremely high birth rate and population growth of the 1970s. In fact, since 1971, China had implemented a birth control policy with a maximum limit of three children per family in rural areas and two per family in urban areas. However, the one-child policy did have exceptions for families where both husband and wife were only children; these couples were allowed to have a second child.

A poster promoting China's one-child policy. (Image: Internet)

However, according to assessments and monitoring by population experts, the one-child policy gradually became only meaningful for a segment of the population. Until the 2000s, the clear impact of this policy on the community was only noticeable in large cities.

In 2012, Xi Jinping became the leader of the world's most populous nation and began a comprehensive reform of the economy, society, and politics. In 2013, he relaxed the one-child policy by allowing couples where one parent was an only child to have a second child. This exception was also applied to farming families whose first child was a girl or to ethnic minority groups.

On October 29th, China's one-child policy was officially abolished, allowing all couples in the country to have a second child.

Why did China decide to change its population policy in this way? In fact, whether it enacted and implemented or abolished the one-child policy, the reasons were all related to macroeconomic development. While China's population exploded rapidly in the 1970s, dragging down the quality of life, conversely, the country's population is now showing signs of aging.

Demographer Isabelle Attane, who is also a scholar specializing in China, analyzes:

“China’s demographic structure has undergone a dramatic transformation. Between 1980 and 2000, the proportion of the working-age population (15-59 years old) surged dramatically, reaching 70% of the total population. However, since 2008, this proportion has decreased significantly and is still on a downward trend. The number of elderly people will increase sharply, while the birth rate will be much lower as a consequence of the one-child policy.”

According to this French expert, the one-child policy was originally intended to last only about 30 years – meaning it was a temporary development strategy to adapt to contemporary economic trends. Now, with such an unfavorable demographic structure, there is no reason for China to continue maintaining such strict population control.

The disparity between the one-child policy and China's current socio-economic situation has been a subject of debate attracting considerable attention from both Chinese and international public opinion in recent years.

Economically, experts argue that the one-child policy, with its resulting aging population, will place a huge burden on the next generation of Chinese people and will also negatively impact China's low-cost export industry due to increased labor costs.

From a social perspective, China's gender imbalance at birth will lead to an imbalance in its social structure over the next few decades, resulting in consequences such as human trafficking from neighboring countries to China and a disruption of traditional Chinese family values.

Abortion is also a major social issue in China, as the one-child policy significantly increases pressure to have sons in families that maintain patriarchal attitudes.

For demographers and sociologists, overly strict control of birth rates is tantamount to excessive interference with the family nucleus of society—one of the most crucial values ​​in traditional Chinese values.

Liang Zhongtang, an expert from the Shanghai Institute of Social Sciences, shared his personal views on the country's population policy:

"The issue isn't about having one or two children, but about separating politics from the concept of family. The number of children a parent has to choose, not something that comes with external pressure."

However, paradoxically, even with the abolition of the one-child policy, deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche for nearly 40 years, the country's birth rate is unlikely to increase significantly immediately. According to a survey conducted by Fudan University in Shanghai last March, only 15% of women in China's most populous city wanted to have two children, while 58% cited financial burdens as the reason for not having children or having only one.

In reality, China's current infrastructure and social welfare services (hospitals, schools, etc.) are inadequate to meet the needs of people who have many children, and the costs are extremely high, forcing young families in China to carefully consider their options before deciding to have children.

Therefore, even if the one-child policy is abolished, the ideological barriers remain too great for China to "restructure" its population to meet future development demands. Furthermore, the Chinese government has a responsibility to upgrade infrastructure and services and create support mechanisms, rather than simply allowing or denying second births.

Thuc Anh

(According to Le Monde)