From a 'sideline' position, is Ankara about to have a new role in Gaza?

Deep conflict between the US and Israel

In the complex diplomatic picture of the Middle East, according to DW, it seems that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a figure that is especially favored by his US counterpart Donald Trump. For many weeks, Mr. Trump has continuously used good words when talking about the 71-year-old leader of Türkiye. At the important meeting on the ceasefire in Gaza, held in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in mid-October, Mr. Trump arranged for President Erdogan to sit in the front row. He was one of the few leaders (along with the US, Egypt, Qatar) to sign the joint statement supporting the ceasefire. Once again, Mr. Trump emphasized the sentiment that Mr. Erdogan is "a good friend" of his.

Washington's warm attitude towards Ankara stands in stark contrast to Israel's cold, even hostile, stance. US Vice President JD Vance, during a recent visit to Israel, echoed Mr Trump's argument, noting that Turkey has "played a very constructive role" in resolving the Middle East conflict so far and expects this to continue. This puts the US in sharp contrast to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet. Tel Aviv holds a much more negative view of Mr Erdogan, largely due to his alleged close relationship with Hamas and his constant, harsh criticism of Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza.

This rift was evident at a joint press conference between Netanyahu and Vance on October 22. When asked about the possibility of Turkish troops being part of an “international stabilization force” in Gaza, Netanyahu replied: “I have a very strong opinion on that. Do you want to guess what it is?” The message was clear: Israel does not want to see any Turkish troops inside Gaza.

Turkish-Israeli relations have actually deteriorated significantly over the past two years. Ankara has accused the Israeli government of “genocide” in Gaza. In response, Israeli politicians, especially far-right ministers in Netanyahu’s government, have frequently used anti-Turkey rhetoric. Israel has also accused Turkey of harboring Hamas members. Although Turkey admits that Hamas members (some of whom were the result of previous prisoner exchanges with Israel) and others regularly visit, Ankara denies that Hamas has established an official office in the country.

Risks and practical roles

As tensions between two key US allies reach a fever pitch, the question is: Why did Trump bring Turkey into the picture, despite Israel's objections? Hakki Tas, a researcher specializing in Turkey and Egypt at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), told DW that this is the result of Ankara's clever strategic positioning. President Trump wants to resolve the Gaza issue at the lowest possible military and economic cost to the US. And the Turkish government is "one of the few actors that can both exert indirect pressure on Netanyahu... and at the same time have influence on Hamas." While the US already has Qatar, where Hamas' political leadership is headquartered, to negotiate, Türkiye's role is more balanced and multifaceted.

In addition to its strategic position, Türkiye has practical capabilities that cannot be overlooked: As a NATO member with close ties to the West, Ankara has a key military role in the region. In addition, Turkey has extensive experience providing humanitarian aid and reconstruction logistics in the Gaza Strip. It has professional relief organizations such as the government’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) and the Turkish Red Crescent, which have extensive experience in dealing with disasters and displacement. In terms of reconstruction capabilities, Turkey’s construction companies are among the largest in the world, many of which have been supported by Mr. Erdogan’s generous government contracts over the past two decades.

Participating in the Gaza peace process offers President Erdogan huge geopolitical and domestic benefits. Analyst Hakki Tas explains that the move gives Erdogan “geopolitical clout,” especially in relation to an increasingly weakened Hamas and an increasingly unpopular Israel. Erdogan has moved from being a “sideline” to a “central figure.” This brings prestige and, importantly, it attracts pro-Palestinian sentiment from his base at home. Burak Yildirim, a Turkish security expert, said that the possible deployment of Turkish troops into Gaza would be a “major domestic and political victory” for Erdogan. It would help strengthen the argument for the effectiveness of the Turkish government’s foreign policy. For hardliners in Turkey, such a deployment would be extremely significant.

There is, however, another pragmatic calculation. Following the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s military response, Erdogan has been under intense pressure from voters over Türkiye’s trade relations with Israel. Yildirim believes that Erdogan really does not want to put his economically struggling government to another test on this issue. This implies that Erdogan may have shown a willingness to compromise with Trump on economic issues (with Israel) in exchange for a central political role on the Gaza issue.

Despite the “red carpet” being rolled out by the US, Türkiye’s future role remains fraught with risks and limitations. Expert Burak Yildirim frankly stated that Türkiye cannot unilaterally bring about a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially when it comes to a two-state solution. Instead, what Turkey can do is “bring the conflicting parties and other stakeholders to the negotiating table.” Even this role as a mediator is fragile. There are too many potential “fault lines”: potential disagreements with Egypt, the US Congress’s limited approach to dealing with Erdogan, and even divisions within Hamas. All of this could dilute Türkiye’s influence. This is why, it is expected, Türkiye will focus mainly on humanitarian and logistical issues in Gaza. Political and military topics are considered too high-risk for Ankara at this time.