Ukraine at a major disadvantage as Russia increases air strikes

Over the past two months, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure, causing power outages in many of the country's major cities.

Amid this, Ukraine has called on the West to increase its air defense capabilities and find ways to counter Russian attacks. However, experts say Ukraine is using ammunition at an alarming rate in these attacks.

Buk air defense missile system fires. Photo: Tass

The weapon Ukraine most wants from the US right now is the Patriot, a long-range missile system that is expected to be able to intercept enemy ballistic missiles. So far, the Biden administration has delayed signing off on the decision. However, that could change, with US officials saying the Biden administration is expected to announce the signing of the Patriot system transfer to Ukraine as early as this week.

Meanwhile, Kiev has prepared to receive Hawk air defense systems, including six from Spain.

"If hundreds of missiles are launched at us, we can shoot down about 70-80% of them," said Colonel Yuriy Ignat of the Ukrainian Air Force.

Meanwhile, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Military Intelligence Service, said Russia has enough ammunition for several more major attacks.

Russia began conducting weekly airstrikes on key Ukrainian infrastructure from October 10.

Mr. Ignat called the recent skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine a game of cat and mouse as Kiev moves and hides its air defense systems to avoid detection while Moscow searches for weak spots in Ukraine's air defense network.

However, ammunition and spares for Ukraine's S-300 and Buk systems - the main weapons of the country's Air Defense Forces - are running low. Ukrainian officials have confirmed information from British intelligence that Russia is launching X-55 nuclear missiles with nuclear warheads replaced with dummy warheads to deplete Ukraine's ammunition.

Ukraine also said that buying more missiles for the S-300 and Buk from Russia, where these munitions are produced, is impossible. Finding available supplies on the global market is also not simple.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) warned last month of Western indifference to the urgent need to boost Ukraine’s air defenses. It also said that if Kiev’s surface-to-air systems ran out of ammunition, it would allow Russian heavy bombers to operate at medium and high altitudes over Ukrainian airspace, putting the country at a significant disadvantage.

G7 leaders pledged on December 12 to “continue coordination to meet the urgent needs of the Ukrainian military, with an immediate focus on providing Ukraine with air defense systems.”

Some observers say that even as Russia’s cruise missile arsenal dwindles, it still has a large number of ballistic missiles. In addition, while Russia’s suicide drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are noisy, slow, and easy to shoot down, it would be difficult for the enemy to destroy all of them when deployed en masse. In addition, these UAVs are much cheaper than the missiles used to intercept them.

Oleksiy Melnyk, a former Lieutenant Colonel in the Ukrainian Air Force and now director of the Razumkov Center think tank in Kiev, said that although Ukraine's air defense system has improved since Russia launched its military operation in late February, trying to predict when Russia will run out of missiles may not be a suitable strategy./.