Why do Russian voters have such high confidence in President Putin?
Russian President Putin's approval rating remains high, though not as high as it once was. Many Russian voters want change, but they haven't yet seen anyone more deserving.
The recent referendum on Russian constitutional reform has paved the way for Putin to serve two more terms as president, until 2036, even though his approval ratings are no longer what they used to be.
The results of the referendum on July 1, 2020, showed that incumbent Russian President Putin (67 years old) received nearly 78% of the votes cast, giving him the opportunity to remain in power until 2036, when he will be 83 years old. The report stated that the voter turnout for the referendum was approximately 68%.
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| Russian President Vladimir Putin reviews the honor guard. Photo: Daily Beast. |
Despite numerous obstacles, Putin still "scores very highly".
The results of the aforementioned referendum on Russian constitutional reform are truly impressive, considering that Putin is currently facing numerous difficulties such as declining living standards, economic stagnation due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the oil price war (with Saudi Arabia)...
Although Putin's approval rating is currently at its lowest level ever, it remains remarkably high at 59.9%.
Ordinary Russian voters say they see no other political choice ahead.
Kirill, a 42-year-old voter at a polling station in Saint Petersburg, said after casting his vote: “Honestly, I don’t see any other alternative. It’s unlikely that in 2024 there will be someone more worthy than Putin running for President of Russia.”
Without this constitutional amendment, Putin would have been limited to four presidential terms (as of now).
But thanks to the results of the referendum, with 77.93% of Russians supporting the proposed constitutional amendments, Putin can reset his previous presidential term count to zero, allowing him to run for president again in 2024. Theoretically, starting in 2024, Putin could serve two more terms, meaning he could remain in power until 2036.
Putin has served four terms as President of Russia: 2000-2004, 2004-2008, 2012-2018, and from 2018 to the present, along with two terms as Prime Minister. Thus, he is the longest-serving leader in Russian and Soviet history, surpassing even the record for the longest tenure as Prime Minister of the Soviet Union held by Joseph Stalin (1941-1953).
Was July 1st chosen randomly?
This referendum is necessary to further legitimize and gain credibility for Putin, whose approval ratings have plummeted to their lowest point since 2000. The Covid-19 pandemic is currently spreading rapidly in the world's largest country, with more than 6,000 cases reported daily, according to official statistics.
President Putin has set July 1st as the “ideal day” to hold the referendum. But critics argue that he needs constitutional reforms passed before the full economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic become clear – at which point public discontent could escalate from a “gentle breeze” into a “strong wind.”
In recent times, street posters and television commercials have focused on constitutional amendments that appeal to the Russian people, such as the inclusion of God in the law and a range of social welfare guarantees.
The Kremlin has implemented a series of measures to ensure a high voter turnout, including methods such as mobilizing the participation of state employees and employees of private businesses close to the Kremlin. Moscow citizens who register to vote also have the chance to win prizes. Due to social distancing regulations, early voting has been underway since June 25th.
The opposition claims there may have been voter fraud in the referendum, leading some people to boycott it.
Elizaveta, 42, waited until the last day to vote and chose to oppose the constitutional amendments. “I am satisfied with the current Constitution and oppose the recalculation of Putin’s term.”
How to prevent infighting and paralysis caused by the relentless search for a successor?
Putin has said he's not sure whether he'll run for president in 2024, but many analysts believe he needs to keep the possibility open.
In a documentary aired on Russia's state-run Rossiya 1 channel, Putin expressed concern that the ongoing search for his successor would paralyze governance.
Putin said: “We need to work, not look for a successor. I can tell you from my experience over the past two years that instead of working smoothly and consistently at various levels of government, you are focusing on finding a potential successor.”
According to Tatyana Stanovaya, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, Putin feels that within the Russian elite, different factions are fighting to determine his successor.
Stanovaya believes that Putin dislikes it and sees it as a risk to stability.
By securing his re-election prospects in 2024 and possibly even 2030, Putin has, to some extent, addressed this issue.
In a recent article for the Carnegie Moscow Center, author Aleksey Kolesnikov argues that the referendum was intended to confirm the existence of the “Putin Majority Bloc”—a community united by conservative values and a belief in the leadership of a strong, centralized leader.
According to Grigory Golosov, a professor of comparative politics at the European University of Saint Petersburg, Putin's 59% approval rating in May 2020 may be higher than it actually was due to two reasons: 1- People are afraid to say "no"; and 2- People simply don't see any other options.
Putin's popularity is said to have peaked during certain periods: when he led Russia out of the Yeltsin-era chaos of the 1990s, when he steered Russia out of the Chechen wars, and when Russia successfully and almost bloodlessly annexed Crimea in 2014.
But nowadays Russians are less enthusiastic about adventures abroad and are more concerned with their standard of living.
