Why is Kherson a target for Ukraine and what is the possibility of Western support?

Russia and Ukraine have recently changed tactics due to the amount of new weapons that the West has provided to Kiev. Initially, after Russia launched its military operation on February 24, Ukraine implemented a defensive strategy by using NLAW anti-tank missiles provided by the UK and some other weapons to prevent the Russian army from advancing on Kiev. However, Russia has since withdrawn its troops from Kiev and focused its firepower on strategic targets in eastern Ukraine. The decision to focus on Donbass is partly due to Russia's desire to focus on artillery, as its forces have been deployed there since 2014 and are familiar with the area.

Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine on July 23. Photo: Reuters

The Ukrainian military believes that, as things stand, it can push the Russian army back from southern Ukraine, and the battle for Kherson could be key to this new strategy. If successful, Ukraine has the opportunity to begin retaking the areas currently controlled by Russia, and perhaps the self-proclaimed People’s Republics in the Donbass that are supported by Russia.

Ukraine is now more optimistic about its chances of winning because it has been supplied with HIMARS rocket artillery systems and the US has promised more shipments. This puts the Ukrainian army closer to a counterattack. Instead of being outgunned by Russian artillery due to limited numbers, Ukraine can now destroy Russian ammunition depots, radar systems and artillery positions from a greater distance.

Why is Kherson an important target for Ukraine?

Currently, Kherson - an area controlled by Russia since early March 2022, isimportant goals of UkraineThis city is important for several reasons.

First, control of Kherson would mean access to seaports, from which Ukraine could export goods, including grain. Ukraine believes that Russia’s ultimate goal appears to be to control an area stretching into Moldova, in order to link up with Russian-backed separatists in Transnistria to deny Ukraine access to the Black Sea.

So Ukraine had to stop that with an attack on Kherson to prevent Russia from controlling its southern coast, including Odessa. The vital port city has recently been the target of airstrikes. Not long after Russia and Ukraine struck a deal brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye to resume grain exports.

Ukraine also sees Kherson as a key part of its efforts to liberate the south of the country. In addition, there are several important targets here, such as the large hydroelectric plant that supplies clean water to 85% of Crimea. Winning Kherson also gives Ukraine control of the M14/P47 highway, which would deny Russia access to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe.

Ultimately, if Kherson is captured, it will be a major victory for Ukraine and a major defeat for Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that if Russia takes control of large parts of the south by winter, such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine will lose the ability to function as a country. He believes the next few weeks will be decisive for the country and Ukraine is preparing for a counter-offensive. Some Western observers believe that President Zelensky is right when he says that if the US does not provide Ukraine with the tools to carry out this plan successfully and quickly, both Washington and Kiev will later regret it.

To capture Kherson, Ukraine needs more weapons, especially UAVs, which can not only perform reconnaissance missions but also carry out attacks on enemy forces.

Is the US ready to support Ukraine?

Fighting between Russia and Ukraine is taking place fiercely in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine as Moscow announced its new war goal of controlling as much Ukrainian territory as possible before winter comes while Kiev affirmed its high determination to regain what it has lost.

Speaking to a delegation of five US lawmakers in Kiev last week, Mr. Zelensky reiterated his request for more and more modern weapons from Washington. He also revealed that he was asking the Biden administration to send US troops to Kiev to improve cooperation between the two countries in all areas.

After Florida Rep. Michael Waltz asked the Ukrainian president whether he supported sending more US troops to Ukraine to promote cooperation, Mr. Zelensky supported the idea.

"As soon as I brought up the idea, he said, 'We're asking for that too. We welcome it. We've proposed it. The rest is up to the White House.'"

President Zelensky has proposed that the U.S. and Ukrainian militaries establish three joint coordination centers focused on planning, logistics, and strategic exchanges. However, Mr. Waltz said the U.S. would not deploy troops on the Ukrainian front lines, but would instead work from the U.S. Embassy in Kiev. He said that congressional support for the $40 billion aid and arms program for Ukraine would fade without more direct oversight.

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith, who led the delegation, said he supported President Zelensky’s idea of ​​deploying more US troops to Kiev. However, some officials in the Biden administration worry that would lead to deeper US involvement in the conflict.

"The Biden administration opposes this because they are concerned that tensions will escalate. In addition, if US military personnel work at command centers in Ukraine, they could become military targets" of Russia.

According to Mr. Smith, there are currently some opinions in the Pentagon about providing Ukraine with the weapons that President Zelensky requested, including long-range missiles and modern UAVs. US officials also worry that the US arsenal will be depleted and the UAVs captured by Russia will be studied by Moscow to develop technology to deal with them.

"I understand that risk. It's not insignificant. But I think the risk of Russia winning and controlling Ukraine is even greater," Mr. Smith said.

President Zelensky told US lawmakers that the Ukrainian military needed the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), a surface-to-surface missile system that can hit targets more than 300 km away, nearly four times the range of the missiles currently supplied to the country by the US. This type of missile would allow the Ukrainian military to move beyond the range of Russian artillery, while being able to strike deep into enemy territory and forcing Russia to stretch its logistical lines.

Biden administration officials fear Ukraine could use the missiles to strike at Russian territory, escalating tensions, although President Zelensky has assured the White House that the missiles would not be used against targets inside Russia.

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin also emphasized the urgency of President Zelensky's request. He said the coming weeks and months will open the dooropportunity for Ukraine to regain territoryIf Kiev fails, she believes the hope for a negotiation will become increasingly remote.

"Any push to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table must be accompanied by military victories and we should support them in achieving those victories," the congressman said.

The Biden administration has provided Ukraine with a significant amount of assistance, but the entire effort could go down the drain without a new round of arms deliveries, Josh Rogin, a Washington Post observer, wrote. If Russia gains more control of Ukrainian territory this year, its goals will advance further next year. Time is running out for President Zelensky to win, or at least negotiate from a position of strength.