Western weapons take war in Ukraine to new stage

Ukraine plans counterattack

More than 150 days since Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine, the director of the British MI6 intelligence agency, Richard Moore, has assessed that Ukraine could take advantage of the opportunity to counterattack when the Russian army has exhausted its resources.

Ukraine’s leaders say they have growing reasons to launch a major counteroffensive, both on and off the battlefield. These include falling casualty rates, Russia’s recent tough talk and its goals in Ukraine, the need to restore the economy, and the global economic downturn that is under pressure to end the war.

Ukraine fires a BM-21 Grad rocket launcher near the city of Lysychansk, Luhansk province. Photo: Reuters

The Institute for the Study of War said in a daily report on July 24 that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kherson region may have begun. The report from the Washington-based think tank also said that there had been a significant decline in Russian artillery barrages in the Donbass battlefield since July 15 due to the power of the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system. This multiple rocket launcher system with a range of 80 km is said to have destroyed dozens of Russian military installations.

The Institute for the Study of War also said on July 25 that Ukraine had destroyed all bridges connecting Russian forces in Kherson and their logistics line on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.

"We have significant potential for the advance of our forces on the front line and to inflict huge losses on the occupiers," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said after a meeting with top security officials on July 21.

Mr. Zelensky announced in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that battlefield casualties in Ukraine had dropped to 30 people a day, compared with 100-200 people a day in May and June. He also once again rejected any ceasefire that would allow Russia to control Ukrainian territory.

All of this suggests that the war is entering a new phase, said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. First, Russia entered Kiev and then withdrew from the Ukrainian capital. In the second phase, it concentrated its forces in the east and made some military gains using artillery.

"If the reduction in Russian firepower in Donbass continues, this conflict will essentially freeze and the question will be whether Ukraine can push them back?", Mr. O'Brien assessed.

Ukrainian commanders will likely be cautious because while they are trying to counter modern defensive weapons, Ukrainian tanks, planes and soldiers will face the same risks as the Russian army.

Pressure mounts on both Ukraine and Russia

There is still much uncertainty about a Ukrainian counteroffensive, including the fact that Russian commanders are rebuilding their logistics to counter HIMARS and increasing their air power to destroy them. If Russia presses ahead with its offensive, it could mean that any window of opportunity for a Ukrainian counteroffensive could close.

Ukraine’s ability to reverse Russia’s gains remains unclear without the advance guarantees of artillery, armored vehicles and air defense systems from Western countries. Although Kiev has launched several counterattacks since the war began on February 24, they have been mostly small-scale.

Ukrainian President Zelensky pledged last month to recapture lost territory in the south. Russia’s control of Kherson has cut off Ukraine’s access to the sea and paralyzed the industrial heartland along the Dnipro River, with many major cities and factories just 50 kilometers from the front line.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week that Moscow would expand its military objectives beyond the Donbass region and aim to control the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces as well. Lavrov also cited the West’s delivery of longer-range weapons to Ukraine as a threat to Donetsk, Lugansk and Russia.

In addition, the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are preparing referendums on joining Russia. Moscow is also encouraging residents of these provinces to apply for Russian passports. The annexation of these regions would pose risks to any Ukrainian counterattack, as the Kremlin could view it as an attack on Russia.

Ukraine is also under pressure to demonstrate to the United States and Europe that it is capable of a successful counterattack before those countries sink deeper into energy crises, inflation and recession due to the impact of the ongoing conflict.

Pressure is also mounting on Russia to maintain its gains, as Ukrainian artillery can now strike at Russian-controlled cities such as Donetsk. The main problem is that while Ukraine is receiving more modern weapons, Russia is having to switch to older tanks, guns and missiles, a source close to the Russian Defense Ministry said.

According to the same source, a Ukrainian counterattack in Kherson could be successful in the short term because Kiev has more troops and support in Dnipro while Russia's forces are relatively weaker.

Ultimately, “this is still an artillery war and that means what we need most is more artillery, including tactical artillery with a range of 20 to 25 kilometers, bothHIMARSwith a range of 80 km and the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) with a range of up to 300 km," said Mykola Bielieskov, a research scholar at the Institute for National Strategic Studies - a think tank of the Ukrainian government.

The US has yet to provide ACTACMS to Ukraine.

"Although there is the possibility of mobilizing forces with more armored vehicles, more air defense systems to protect troops on the move and ensure communications, this is a process and it is too early to say that Russia's defense line has stabilized," Mr. Bielieskov said./.