Russian plane crash: Political accident?

(Baonghean) - Considered the most serious disaster in Russian aviation history, the cause of the crash of the Airbus A321 of the low-cost airline Metrojet on October 31 in the North Sinai Peninsula is still being investigated by all parties. The hypothesis of a terrorist attack from inside the plane is the highest possibility being considered.

It is no coincidence that Middle Eastern and European airlines suddenly changed the routes of flights passing through the airspace where the incident occurred. On Wednesday, November 4, the UK and Ireland even completely canceled flights to and from Egypt's Charm El-Cheikh airport - the departure point of the fateful flight number 9268.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron said the decision was “based on new information received about the crash” and because “it is highly likely that the cause of the crash was an explosive device on board.” British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond also reiterated this hypothesis just hours after the cancellation was announced.

Russian plane wreckage in Wadi al-Zolomat area on Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. Photo: AFP/TTXVN

US authorities have also been heavily involved in the investigation, which is understandable given the nature of the involvement of the IS terrorist group, an enemy of the US and the international coalition. On the same day that the UK announced the cancellation, US officials expressed doubts that a bomb could have been the primary cause of the crash. CNN quoted a US intelligence official as saying: “The primary cause of the crash is almost certainly a bomb hidden in luggage or somewhere on the plane.”

If this hypothesis is true, this would be the first terrorist attack of its kind carried out by the self-proclaimed Islamic State. In fact, this terrorist organization has claimed responsibility for this accident from the beginning, but the group's claim of shooting down the plane with a missile has been denied by many parties.

Egyptian military spokesman General Mohamed Samir and Russian Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov responded that the claim by the IS group operating in the Sinai Peninsula was untrue. Accordingly, to be able to attack a plane flying at an altitude of nearly 10,000m, a special missile launch system is needed. This is also one of the arguments for the authorities of the countries to affirm that the video posted by IS to prove the shooting down of the Russian plane is fake.

In response to these comments, the Egyptian branch of IS still asserted its responsibility for the accident: “We brought down this plane and no one or nothing forced us to reveal how we did it.” It is not yet known whether IS was behind the accident, but the motive is certain: revenge against Russia for its recent military intervention in Syria.

That is also one of the reasons why the accident has become the focus of international public opinion, besides its catastrophic level. Because, the act of IS claiming responsibility may create a smokescreen that makes the investigation difficult, but at the same time it also sends a very clear threatening message to Russia and partly spreads the influence of this terrorist organization.

Another IS militant group, operating in the Mosul area of ​​northern Iraq, posted a video praising “our Sinai brothers who brought down the plane of the Russian crusaders.” Among the five militants featured in the video, a white man is the main spokesman in Russian, insulting President Vladimir Putin:

“If you think that the planes, the troops and the war machines you send can destroy our state, you are mistaken. You and your people will regret it. We will not stop at this plane. At some point, you will pay a heavy price for interfering in our country.”

IS militant group Wilayat Sinai in Egypt. Photo: AFP

It is worth noting that exiles from the former Soviet Union are one of the largest groups of foreign fighters in the ranks of the IS organization. Since Russia launched its air campaign in Syria on September 30, militant groups linked to IS and Al-Qaeda have repeatedly sent out messages calling for a “holy war” against Moscow. According to the latest statistics from the Russian Defense Ministry, the Russian Air Force has conducted 1,631 airstrikes against 2,084 targets in Syria.

However, despite declaring that “no hypothesis is excluded,” the Kremlin has been extremely careful to avoid mentioning the possibility of a terrorist attack motivated by political motives. So when the US and UK made statements emphasizing the hypothesis that a bomb was placed on the plane, Russia responded with an unsupportive attitude, even suggesting that the US and UK statements were intended to serve its own political purposes.

On Thursday morning, November 5, the Russian airline Rosaviatsia announced that it had no intention of canceling flights over Charm El-Cheikh. At the same time, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council Konstantin Kossachev compared the British decision to a move of “geopolitical antagonism” aimed at Russia’s military intervention in Syria.

For Egypt, accepting the hypothesis of terrorists planting a bomb on the plane means admitting dangerous loopholes in the country’s security control system. Especially in the current complicated regional political context, Egypt certainly does not want to emerge as a security “black hole” and get caught up in the spiral that shows no signs of cooling down in the Middle East region.

The examination of the plane's black box is still underway. The cockpit voice recorder is partially damaged and will require considerable time and effort to extract the data. In parallel with the investigation, rescue work continues in an area of ​​up to 40 square kilometers around the crash site.

The veil of secrecy surrounding the tragedy has not yet been lifted, but the political messages from the parties involved are clear. A terrorist group wants to “show off” to a new rival force, a coalition wants to restrain the spreading influence of a long-time rival country - all seem to be pointing their spears at Russia. If the hypothesis of a terrorist attack is true, perhaps a new turning point will open up for the Middle East region and the parties involved…

Thuc Anh

(According to Le monde)