Ministry of Planning and Investment builds 2 GDP growth scenarios for the last 6 months of the year

Accordingly, with the first scenario, the GDP for the whole year is expected to increase by 6%, then the growth in the third quarter must reach 6.8%, the fourth quarter must be 9%, respectively 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points higher than the scenario proposed at the beginning of the year. With this scenario, the overall growth in the last 6 months of the year must reach 8%.

In the second scenario, GDP in 2023 increases by 6.5%. Accordingly, the last two quarters of the year must achieve growth of 7.4% and 10.3%. These growth rates are 0.9 and 3.2 percentage points higher than the scenario proposed at the beginning of the year, respectively. Overall, growth in the second half of the year must reach 8.9%.

Accordingly, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed solutions to achieve year-end growth, including: ministries and localities need to remove difficulties, support production and business, enterprises, promote growth drivers of domestic consumption, investment (including the private sector, state-owned enterprises, attracting FDI and public investment) and export.

The stock, real estate, corporate bond, and labor markets must be closely monitored and problems resolved... to become effective medium- and long-term capital mobilization channels for businesses. In addition, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, it is necessary to promote administrative procedure reform, improve the investment and business environment associated with increasing decentralization and delegation of authority, creating maximum convenience for people and businesses. The report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment stated that economic indicators in June were better than in May and the second quarter was better than the first quarter. The average consumer price index (CPI) in the first 6 months increased by 3.39% over the same period, continuing the downward trend. Trade surplus was over 12.2 billion USD. Investment showed more positive signs, estimated at 1.35 million billion VND, up 4.7% over the same period. Disbursement of public investment capital was over 65,000 billion VND, reaching nearly 30.5% of the plan.

Services remain an important driving force of the economy, contributing 80% to overall growth, with a 6-month value added of 6.3%. Business registrations were more positive, with 13,900 new businesses registered in June; nearly 7,100 businesses returned to operation, 3.1 times higher than the same period last year.

According to the Report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment at the regular Government meeting in June, the low growth of the industrial and construction sector, more than 1.1%, was the reason for the low GDP growth in the first half of the year, reaching 60% of the plan.

Noting that the situation in the coming time will still face many difficulties, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung emphasized that it is necessary to be aware that the tasks set are very heavy and challenging, requiring high determination and great efforts from the entire political system, people and businesses, effectively promoting all policies and resources, making the most of opportunities, and striving to achieve the highest results according to the set goals.

Therefore, in the last months of the year, ministries, branches and localities should focus on monitoring and grasping the situation at home and abroad, proactively advising and proposing to the Government and the Prime Minister in cases beyond their authority.

In particular, urgently report to competent authorities on regulations on encouraging and protecting dynamic, creative cadres who dare to think, dare to do, dare to make breakthroughs for the common good; strengthen inspection and supervision, and have sanctions to strictly handle cases of cadres who shirk, avoid, and fear responsibility.

The Minister of Planning and Investment also mentioned promoting administrative procedure reform, improving the investment and business environment; promoting the application of digital technology in the management and settlement of administrative procedures in the electronic environment. In particular, absolutely not issuing new policies and regulations that create costs, procedures, and time that are against regulations or unnecessary for businesses and people.

At the same time, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung also emphasized solutions to remove difficulties, support production and business, enterprises, promote growth drivers in domestic consumption, investment (including domestic private sector, state-owned enterprises, attracting FDI and public investment), and export.

In addition, it is necessary to remove difficulties and sustainably develop the stock, real estate, corporate bond and labor markets. Along with that, it is necessary to closely monitor the situation, handle difficulties, perfect regulations, and organize the operation of the corporate bond market to become an effective medium- and long-term capital mobilization channel for enterprises.

Minister Nguyen Chi Dung also noted that synchronous solutions must be implemented such as maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances of the economy; promoting startups, innovation, developing the digital economy, and digital transformation.