The Ministry of Planning and Investment has developed two scenarios for GDP growth in the last six months of the year.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment has developed two GDP growth scenarios based on developments in the first six months of the year and forecasts for the remaining months.
Accordingly, under the first scenario, where the projected GDP growth for the whole year is 6%, then growth in the third quarter must reach 6.8%, and in the fourth quarter 9%, which is 0.3 and 1.9 percentage points higher, respectively, than the scenario presented at the beginning of the year. Under this scenario, overall growth for the last six months of the year must reach 8%.
In the second scenario, GDP growth in 2023 is projected at 6.5%. Accordingly, the last two quarters of the year must achieve growth rates of 7.4% and 10.3%. These growth rates are 0.9 and 3.2 percentage points higher, respectively, than the initial scenario. Overall, growth in the second half of the year must reach 8.9%.
Accordingly, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed solutions to achieve year-end growth, including: ministries and localities need to remove obstacles and support production and business activities, promote growth drivers of domestic consumption, investment (including the private sector, state-owned enterprises, attracting FDI and public investment) and exports.
Stock markets, real estate, corporate bonds, and labor markets must be closely monitored and obstacles addressed to become effective channels for mobilizing medium and long-term capital for businesses. In addition, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, it is necessary to accelerate administrative procedure reforms, improve the investment and business environment associated with increased decentralization and delegation of power, creating maximum convenience for people and businesses. The Ministry of Planning and Investment's report states that economic indicators in June were better than in May, and the second quarter was better than the first quarter. The average consumer price index (CPI) for the first six months increased by 3.39% compared to the same period last year, continuing its downward trend. The trade surplus exceeded US$12.2 billion. Investment showed more positive signs, estimated at VND 1.35 trillion, an increase of 4.7% compared to the same period last year. Disbursement of public investment capital exceeded VND 65,000 billion, reaching nearly 30.5% of the plan.
Services remain a key driver of the economy, contributing 80% to overall growth, with a 6.3% increase in added value over the first six months. Business registrations were more positive, with 13,900 new businesses registered in June; nearly 7,100 businesses resumed operations, 3.1 times more than the same period last year.
According to the report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment at the regular Government meeting in June, the low growth of the industrial and construction sector, at over 1.1%, was the reason for the low GDP growth in the first half of the year, reaching only 60% of the plan.
Noting that the situation ahead remains challenging, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung emphasized the need to be aware of the heavy and demanding tasks ahead, requiring high determination and great efforts from the entire political system, the people, and businesses. It is essential to effectively utilize all policies and resources, maximize opportunities, and strive to achieve the highest possible results according to the set objectives.
Therefore, in the final months of the year, ministries, departments, and localities should focus on monitoring and thoroughly understanding the domestic and international situation, proactively advising and proposing solutions to the Government and the Prime Minister in cases exceeding their authority.
Specifically, it is necessary to promptly report to the competent authorities on regulations to encourage and protect dynamic, creative officials who dare to think, dare to act, and dare to innovate for the common good; strengthen inspection and supervision, and impose strict sanctions on cases of officials shirking, avoiding, or fearing responsibility.
The Minister of Planning and Investment also mentioned the need to accelerate administrative procedure reforms, improve the investment and business environment; and promote the application of digital technology in managing and resolving administrative procedures electronically. This includes absolutely prohibiting the issuance of new policies and regulations that create unnecessary or unlawful costs, procedures, or timeframes for businesses and citizens.
At the same time, Minister Nguyen Chi Dung also emphasized solutions to overcome difficulties, support production and business, promote growth drivers in domestic consumption, investment (including the domestic private sector, state-owned enterprises, attracting FDI and public investment), and exports.
Furthermore, it is necessary to remove obstacles and develop sustainably the stock, real estate, corporate bond, and labor markets. Along with that, it is crucial to closely monitor the situation, address problems, improve regulations, and organize the operation of the corporate bond market to make it an effective channel for mobilizing medium and long-term capital for businesses.
Minister Nguyen Chi Dung also noted that it is necessary to implement a comprehensive set of solutions such as maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major economic balances; promoting entrepreneurship, innovation, developing the digital economy, and digital transformation...
