US 'slow approval' strategy keeps Ukraine from winning

Commenting on Western aid to Ukraine, Time magazine commented that after "yes", the second best answer would be "not quickly". However, the worst answer is "not slowly". As the military conflict in Ukraine gradually enters its second year, a battlefield victory or a negotiated solution seems more elusive than ever. Ukraine calls for international aid, especially military support, but the answer is "not slowly".

While the US Congress is internally debating an aid package for Ukraine, Washington and NATO are still sending many "sensitive" weapons systems to Kiev, which Ukrainian authorities have requested since 2022. Despite the lack of Western production capacity, these weapons include first-generation M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks, HIMARS high-mobility artillery rocket systems, and in the future, F-16 fighter jets.

Although the number of weapons is smaller than Ukraine would like, they have appeared on the battlefield in the past few months. However, the situation has changed completely even before Kiev received this shipment.

According to Time, vast swaths of territory between Russia and Ukraine have not changed hands in more than a year. Russian troops have advanced, building extensive fortifications and defensive trenches. The mobile war is over. Ukraine’s capabilities are waning.

In the early days of the conflict, sending military aid to Ukraine was often met with arguments that the weak Ukrainian army would not stand a chance against the Russian army. However, those arguments have changed tone, with opposition to providing NATO weapons systems to Kiev. The US has refused to transfer existing weapons, fearing that it could escalate hostilities, prompting Russia to attack a NATO member or start a nuclear war.

According to Time, Russian President Putin “skillfully stoked fears of escalation” among Ukraine’s allies. In those crucial early months, when Russia’s military was strained, the Biden administration and its European allies wasted valuable time on Ukraine. This even allowed Russia to regroup and consolidate its power.

In October 2022, after Ukraine launched a counteroffensive on Kharkiv, President Biden did not praise the action. Instead, he warned Americans of a potential “nuclear apocalypse.”

When it comes to military aid to Ukraine, President Putin has used his nuclear deterrent to regulate the flow of weapons to Kiev. And this gives the Kremlin a crucial advantage in setting the tempo of the conflict. They choose when to increase or decrease their threats, and the US responds by increasing or decreasing supplies.

Time said that this has led to a kind of "phony war". In which the US and NATO cheer for Ukraine's victory and gradually provide it with modern weapons, but provide them slowly and in sufficient quantities for Ukraine to fight, but not win. This is a slow strategy of the US and NATO.

"If the Biden administration and its NATO allies had aggressively armed and supported Ukraine in the early days of the conflict, Russia's special operations might have failed. But there probably would never have been such aggressive support for Kiev from the West. Because America's national interests do not coincide with Ukraine's interests. The United States has long acted as if it needed a stable Russia," Time commented.

The publication believes that the conflict will continue in 2024. Ukraine will receive new weapons, but progress on the battlefield will be measured only in small steps. The allies will continue to slowly say "yes" to Ukraine's open-ended demands./.