The new US president's 'carrot and stick' choice with Duterte

After a series of shocking statements by Philippine President Duterte about the alliance with the US, Washington will have two options when it has a new head of the White House.

The alliance between the US and the Philippines is expected to face challenges when Mr. Duterte takes power. Photo: AFP

"If the new US president is Hillary Clinton, she will try to flatter the Philippines, be less critical of Duterte's policies and engage in a soft power competition with China to win the heart of Manila,"Professor Alexander Vuving, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, USA, spoke with VnExpress.

However, if Mr. Donald Trump wins the election, he will likely cut aid and withdraw US troops from the Philippines, and even be willing to abandon the alliance if Mr. Duterte wants because the two have similar personalities, Mr. Vuving commented.

According to this expert,While the US is approaching the Philippines with a policy based on principles rather than relationships, China is doing the opposite. So the US has criticized Mr. Duterte's anti-crime policies, while China, knowing that this is the centerpiece of the Philippine President's policy, has promised to help build drug rehabilitation centers.

"This contradiction makes Mr. Duterte more dissatisfied with the US and lean towards China. This is probably the weapon the Philippine president uses to be able to carry out an independent foreign policy as he declared," said Vuving.

The professor also noted that "to understand Mr. Duterte, we need to pay attention to his personal experience." With a starting point as a mayor, Mr. Duterte can be said to have no experience in policy towards China, but he has strong anti-American sentiments and that is directly reflected in his statements.Mr. Dutete grew up in the southern Philippines all his life and has little experience in international relations.

The Philippine president said on September 12 that he wants US troops stationed in Mindanao to leave.hinted that their presence here could make the situation more tense. Then on September 14, Mr. Duterteaffirmed that this country will not conduct joint patrols with the US or other countries in the East Sea to avoid trouble with a third party. Foreign MinisterPhilippines Perfecto Yasaycam although said the president's statements were misunderstood,cherishes the alliance with the US, but still said "will not be treated like a younger brother by the US and lectured about human rights".

Vuving said that the Philippine President's stance is to avoid provoking China on the South China Sea issue. Therefore, it can be predicted that Duterte does not consider joint patrols with the US or the arbitral tribunal's ruling as weapons in negotiations with Beijing. The arbitral tribunal in July issued a ruling rejecting China's nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea.

Duterte is likely to experiment with some changes in foreign policy, especially with the US and China, Vuving said. Relations with ASEAN, meanwhile, may not change much because if he moves towards an independent foreign policy, Duterte will have to rely more on the association. It will be interesting when the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2017.

"The alliance between the US and the Philippines will be tested during President Duterte's time in power," Vuving assessed.

According to VNE