China's internal conflict over the East Sea issue

China often arrogantly claims the East Sea as its own. But the truth is that countries around the world, even China itself, do not know exactly what it wants in the East Sea. China has raised the so-called “nine-dash line” in the East Sea but they have never clarified this claim according to international law.

Currently, among Chinese analysts and policy makers, there are three different schools of thought arguing with each other about their views on the East Sea.

Chinese warships in the East Sea. Photo: AFP.

Chinese leaders, from President Xi Jinping to Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Admiral Sun Jianguo, have repeatedly and (illegally) insisted that the islands in the South China Sea have always been Chinese territory. They have also distorted the facts by claiming that China is acting legally to protect its sovereignty there.

To reassure the international community, China asserts that it only installs necessary military equipment on the islands (which it illegally occupies or builds) in the East Sea for the purpose of "self-defense".

However, many ASEAN countries do not believe these arguments of China. They actually feel threatened by China's aggressive actions in building actual islands in the East Sea.

To predict the future direction of China's foreign policy on the South China Sea, we need to consider the following three schools of thought in China:

1- The "pragmatic" group

This group believes that China’s current policy on the South China Sea is fine and does not need further adjustment. They are willing to lose face abroad as long as they maintain material power on the ground. They believe that time is on China’s side as long as China can manage its rise. These people believe that they are protecting China’s national interests by increasing their material presence in the South China Sea.

However, this “realist” group is also stuck in not knowing what to do with the artificial islands that China has illegally built. They wonder whether they need to install more military equipment (including offensive weapons) on those islands or whether defensive equipment alone is enough to maintain the status quo.

2- The "hardcore" group

This group advocates propaganda about the 7 artificial islands that China has just built, considering it a fait accompli and unchangeable. Not only that, they also advocate allowing China to further expand its military and territorial reach in the East Sea, by building the islands into small military bases, and conquering more islands that are actually controlled by other countries.

Photo: FP.

The hardliners do not care about the concerns of the world community, they only want to maximize China's "personal" interests.

In the Chinese government, these hardliners are often in the military or law enforcement agencies. Hardliners in the population are often more superficial and driven by nationalist sentiment.

3- The "moderate" group

The group believes that it is time for China to adjust its policy to clarify its claims in the East Sea.

They are well aware that Beijing is being ambiguous about its claims in the South China Sea. They criticize the Chinese government for failing to communicate effectively with the outside world and offer a highly convincing version of its strategy.

According to this group, China’s go-it-alone approach to major strategic decisions such as island building is detrimental to China’s own interests. They believe that if China does not make efforts to legitimize its island building, the international community will inevitably be more suspicious than sympathetic toward China’s actions.

Moderates believe that China needs to gradually clarify its nine-dash line claim. They say that ambiguity creates unnecessary obstacles to reaching a diplomatic compromise. They argue that treating an ancient map as a historical demarcation line is counterproductive, as it would make China an adversary of most Southeast Asian countries as well as the United States. Moderates see China’s biggest obstacle as the lack of a clear and effective strategy for the South China Sea.

Despite their differences, all three groups share one very important point: China needs to build islands.

The new status quo in the South China Sea requires China to clarify its strategic intentions here. But even now China still does not have a clear answer to this question.

The hardliners have given quick answers but with a high degree of uncertainty. A significant part of China is debating what its strategy should be in the South China Sea.

In that context, the US and ASEAN need to create favorable conditions to shape China's policy towards more reconciliation and cooperation, promoting the proportion of the "moderate" group./.

According to VOV